Not sure what % of Disney is made up of $ that ESPN generates, but would be scared with all this a la carte cable talk bullshit. For aapl buy baby buy
The cord-cutting stuff seems a little overdone with Disney. They've got a lot more stuff going on outside of that and ESPN's numbers will probably get a huge boost with football season coming up. Definitely agree on Apple.
Many of you guys have probably never closely watched a bear market so I would say to be careful. Don't just assume that the market is going to bounce back quickly. My best guess is an early week selloff followed by a big bounce back which will then be followed by another selloff. We have been in a bull market for several years so we are due for a big correction at the very least. There should be some good buys for long term holders but there will be plenty of pain involved as well.
How do you make an argument that China is a small problem? Look at the commodities markets over the past several months and you can see what a lack of Chinese demand can do.
I guess I wouldn't say they're a small problem, but I think the effects have been exaggerated. Apple, for example, shouldn't have dropped 20% because China's growth is a little slower than before.
The effects of China may be exaggerated, but the market is definitely not priced in for the impact raising the rates can have right now. The underlying economic environment right now is not very good, and it hasn't really improved in any way over the last few years. Unemployment rate is the only thing that really looks any good right now (other than that ludicrous bull run we just had), and the more you actually look into it the more you find that it doesn't really paint the full picture. There's no going lower with the rates, and there's no more purpose for easing (the Fed knows people aren't going to let them throw money at the problem again, because it didn't work the last 3 times). This isn't me saying the top was already in, but -3% in one day does not look good right now.
The original reasons for buying SDRL still apply, and it's still not for everyone. It could go to zero, that's a real risk, but it could also double, triple or more. It's a high risk, high reward stock just like it was in May. If you buy into a stock like that with money you need back or with a short term view then you're asking for it. I'm still in on it FWIW, but my timeframe is multiple years, not months.
Well, it's looking like we'll be half way there at the open. All US index futures down over at least 2% (NDX futs -4%), oil down over 3% and below $40 bbl, gold down around .50% with silver down over 2.50%, the yield on 10 yr treasury note making a bug move as its down over 2%, but on the bright side, at least we are not China (Shanghai Comp down almost 10% overnight).
Wouldn't be surprised to see an intraday dead cat bounce that props the indexes at something like a 1% loss before we fall back again.
One thing people need to remember - it's not like the Fed is going to be hiking rates back to where they were in the Reagan era (up over 10%) over the next couple of years. So if it seems like the market isn't pricing in much of a hike, it is because they anticipate the Fed taking their sweet time with very gradual increases in rates. Not that I try to find things to attribute moves to (you can be 110% correct about fundamentals/the why and still end up being wrong because of technicals/momentum), but I think this sell off has more to do with the global economy. That and possibly the debt markets, specifically as it relates to the energy sector - many firms are way over leveraged in this space and we are going to start seeing bigger and bigger issues (i.e. defaults) because if it. That said, this sell off is starting to remind me more and more of the one in Fall 2011. The SPX probably wasn't more than 2% off 52 wk highs towards the end of July and 2-3 weeks later was around 20% off those highs.
Big gap down like this could also leave us primed for a reversal. Though now that bears have pushed equities below the trading ranges they were in, I tend to agree that there is probably more downside to come.
I took the SPY short overnight but whatever gains I have in that will be more than offset by my losses in my mutual funds.
this is what i told ms swim. she has like all of 5k in it. her employer just gave her a 2k match last month. DAMNIT WHY COULDNT YALL WAIT A MONTH SHIT
I was actually going to pull out soon to throw the funds in my account towards a down payment on a house :(
Joe Louis please change thread title to "Official Investing Thread - Please keep your arms and legs inside the ride at all times #WEEE"
Getting fiesty in China The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen.
I bought back my short in the SPY and kept buying as it went down. I had an average price on my buys at like 185 or so and sold it all at 190. Now I will just watch the rest of the day.