I've never been a fan of throwing at something that I think is overpriced because there will probably be a bigger fool that will pay more later. I'd prefer to bet on Golden State with that kind of money. Because, fuck Cleveland.
Was talking to my buddy bout some investments last night. I want to pick up a reit in my Roth was looking at realty income: O and What are y'all thoughts on picking up some Disney As a long play? I wanted to get into BIIB on the dip after its failed MS trial I think it's a good pick up right now but he thinks Disney would be a better play.
I love Disney just because of the value of the Marvel and Star Wars properties. The ESPN and cable subscriber trends are a bit concerning, but I still like it without having a whole lot of technical data to back it up. I own a small chunk myself.
I feel like the options market is beginning to reflect an increase in risk due to #Brexit over the last two days. I anticipate volatility to stay firm leading up to the vote. If the vote to EXIT were to succeed strap on your helmet because the market is going for a ride. What do you guys think are the chances for Brexit? Spoiler High quality global journalism requires investment. How accurate are the Brexit polls? After failing to predict the 2015 election, the polling industry still has questions to resolve ©PA D ays away from Britain’s historic EU referendum, opinion polls are dominating the debate, ramping up uncertainty about the eventual outcome. The problem is no one knows how much to trust such surveys. Follow the twists and turns with UK Politics- our free email briefing on each day's main political developments. Sign up now A week ago, the campaign to remain in the bloc was relatively confident, buoyed by a series of polling leads; since then the Leave camp has pulled ahead in some polls. But whether such changes are due to genuine shifts in public opinion or to the failings of an industry in crisis is a subject of intense debate. Pollsters’ inability to predict the Conservative overall majority in the UK’s 2015 general election was just the highest profile recent mishap in countries ranging from Canada to Israel and Turkey. Even as the June 23 referendum approaches, the industry has still to resolve big questions over the disparities between telephone and internet research and assessing people’s likelihood of voting. But alternative forms of prediction have problems of their own. Online vs Telephone In telephone interviews, respondents are asked whether the UK should remain part of the EU or leave. They can say they don’t know or would prefer not to say (PNTS), but since neither of these responses is explicitly stated as part of the question, there is an invisible nudge to lean one way or the other. Online, the alternative options have to be explicitly included in the poll as it appears on screen, meaning the tentative Remains and Leaves of the telephone poll often turn into more comfortable Don’t Knows or PNTSs. There is no intent to elicit different responses, but this appears to be what has been happening. Online only, Remain and Leave have remained largely neck-and-neck throughout 2016. Small shifts either way are probably noise rather than signal. Telephone only, Remain has held a solid lead over Leave throughout 2016. The margin tightened in the first three months of the year, but since mid-April has been largely unchanged Why would Remain appear to benefit from a methodological issue concerning undecided voters? The accepted wisdom is that when respondents feel that invisible nudge to go one way or the other, they are most likely to opt for the familiarity of the status quo. Essentially this creates two distinct data series. Unsurprisingly, increasing the frequency of telephone polls shifts the average towards Remain. Between May 15 and 24, six out of 10 polls were carried out by telephone and Remain’s average lead widened accordingly. Some misinterpreted this as a fundamental shift indicative of changing or settling opinions among the electorate, but the movement within polls of each mode was minimal. Polls of polls Such factors have consequences for polls of polls, such as the Financial Times’ Brexit poll tracker. The methodology for our poll tracker is straightforward. We take the seven most recent polls from seven different pollsters, remove outliers by dropping the poll with the highest share for Remain and the one with the lowest, and adjust for how recent the data were. One question we are considering is whether to balance the results between telephone and online polls — which are more frequent because they are cheaper and easier to carry out, and which therefore outweigh telephone surveys. Likelihood to vote The online versus telephone polling problem is the most visible challenge pollsters have faced, but far from the only one. Another issue concerns likelihood of voting. This is a longer-running concern and one all pollsters adjust for, but these adjustments are far from an exact science: many different solutions are used. Some pollsters only include answers from respondents who declare themselves certain to vote in the referendum, others weight the responses according to where respondents place themselves on a likelihood scale from 1 to 10, and others exclude anyone who puts themselves as less than 50 per cent likely to vote. Our own analysis of the last five polls from pollsters who publish respondents’ likelihood of voting on such a scale shows how the different approaches can affect the numbers. Generally the more certain someone is that they will vote in the referendum, the more likely they are to respond “Leave”. Leave consistently does best when only those absolutely certain to vote are counted. But in most cases Remain wins out among those saying they are 80 or 90 per cent certain of voting, so it is not as simple as saying Leave supporters are more likely to vote. Turnout is more likely to split down traditional demographic lines, which are finely balanced, with Leave-favouring over-50s and Remain-favouring ABC1 social grades both typically high turnout groups. Herding Another factor sometimes behind pollsters’ methodological tweaks is an effort to minimise the distance between their polls’ results and the perceived “true” state of the electorate’s opinion. This attempt to position a poll in the middle of the pack is known as “herding”. A convergence of the Remain and Leave numbers — consistent with what would result from herding — has been identified in EU referendum polls over the past year by Professors Patrick Sturgis and Will Jennings, both of whom contributed to the inquiry into polling ahead of the 2015 general election. The betting markets With so many problems afflicting the polls, some suggest turning to the betting markets instead. The argument is that a prediction made in the hope of earning a reward will be a good indicator of the way things will go. There are problems here, too. Most obviously, much of the money that moves the betting markets will have been placed with the polls as a guide. We can see this at work in what happened to the betting markets during the lead-up to the general election in May 2015. Based on the average odds across mainstream bookmakers, the Conservatives began to open up a lead in February 2015 over Labour in terms of implied likelihood of being the party with the most seats, but the gap didn’t become a yawning gulf until only the final fortnight before election day. Even then, just five days before polls opened, odds in a separate market implied a 91 per cent probability of there being no overall majority in the House of Commons. Six days later the Tories had won 330 of the 650 seats — a narrow overall majority but an overall majority nonetheless. At the time of writing, the odds imply a 72 per cent chance of Remain winning the day. In short, the bookies are confident that the UK will remain part of the EU, but less confident than they were that there would be no overall majority last May. Related Topics
That's what I have been reading. However, there are a lot of question marks regarding the polling. I updated my previous post to include a spoiler with link to Financial Times article I think the markets get jittery as the vote grows closer because even if its a small chance of happening an Exit could be devastating. I feel like the Remain is priced in. Don't think its a bad idea to move to increase cash positions. Im currently 0% cash in my personal account but tomorrow I think I will move to 20% cash minimum until after the Brexit vote. As far as trading account im long volatility and will use current trading profits to fund that position until after the vote. The volatility curves are anticipating an increase in volatility around the vote but in my opinion not enough. Bottom line I don't see the risk reward of staying in the market for the vote. If it is REMAIN maybe you lose 1-2% on the upside. If it is EXIT it could be 5-10-15-20-30% correction. With the market sitting on the all time highs im willing to sacrifice that 1-2% gain.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...-need-to-know-about-the-referendum-2016-06-07 Stating that chances of Brexit are much closer to 50% than 20%
IMHO the whole reason the market is down today is because an increased chance of Brexit. The VIX is up 17% on the day right now.
Anybody in here invest in vacation property? It's always been on my wish list to buy a cheap beach condo ($75K or less even) and try to rent it out to cover the mortgage and use it as a learning experience for real estate. Anybody done anything similar?
No, but in my refi of my current house to do a rehab this now qualifies for Fannie Mae's Homestyle mortgage which competes against a 203. And holy damn at those Brexit polls, I saw the same article on market watch.
MSFT bought LNKD for 196. Would have been nice if this occurred last earnings season when I bought the 130 LNKD calls but whatever.
Good article on #Brexit, the Vix, and the market over the past few days. http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/14/heres-what-the-vix-is-saying-about-brexit-and-volatility.html
british polls are nortiously shitty. but, the strength of the preference is a good indicator. those who want to leave are fervent. those staying are all "well, the EU is kinda shitty and corrupt and slow, and bureaucratic... and we need to reform it.. but... yeah EU man" id peg it at 60/40 and brexit leading going into next thurs. not to mention one of their biggest papers...
fuck the EU, cmon brits! finally realizing how shitty it is to have a foreign power overrule their own soverignity
Went ahead and Picked up some Disney and Also got in on XLF as well because my prot was lacking in the financials. Had been eyeing Credit Suisse but passed for now. Trying to pick up a RIET.. Right now I'm looking at Realty Incime group(O) and Simon Property Group (SPG). If anyone else has a REIT they are high on right now feel free to let me know just started looking at them recently.
I own O but had read a lengthy article about a REIT that focuses on health care and personal care facilities. people are getting older.
If you come across it or think of the ticker let me know. Knew a girl who's parents owned nursing homes in MS and they couldn't build them fast enough to keep up with demand.
Found it HCP. The Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks of 2015 These three stocks delivered admirable returns for their stockholders during the year. Until the Federal Reserve incrementally raised them in December, for most of 2015 interest rates continued to motor along at historic lows. As a result, even the most generous dividend-paying stocks returned money well short of double-digit percentage rates. SOURCE: SKEEZE VIA PIXABAY. So our definition of "high-yield" for the year has to be stretched a bit. For our purposes here, we'll say that it's a rate that's at least double the average dividend yield of stocks on the S&P 500, which throughout the year hovered at around the 2% level. Using that criterion, I've picked out three companies that went above and beyond in 2015 to put money back in the pockets of their shareholders. The envelope, please: Realty Income (NYSE:O) This venerable real estate investment trust places such an emphasis on its monthly payout, it not only calls itself "the monthly dividend company," it's gone so far as to trademark the slogan. That level of commitment is a big reason Realty Income regularly makes investor lists of top dividend-paying stocks. What also helps is the company's nearly 50-year history of spitting out those monthly gifts, on the back of fundamentals that always seem to be improving. In the REIT's most recently reported quarter, adjusted funds from operations (a key profitability metric for the sector) rose by a sturdy 16% on a year-over-year basis to $166 million or $0.70 per share -- Realty Income's all-time quarterly record, by the way. O FUNDS FROM OPERATIONS (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS Meanwhile, the REIT's occupancy is nearly at capacity, boasting a 98%-plus rate. Which is no small feat, considering the company has a bulging portfolio of almost 4,500 properties. At the moment, Realty Income's monthly dividend is just over $0.19 per share. At the current stock price, that yields 4.4%. HCP (NYSE:HCP) Elsewhere in the REIT sector -- a fine source of high-yield dividends, given that REITs have to pay out the bulk of their earnings as such -- is this niche player. HCP has one of the better niches, in fact, as it specializes in healthcare facilities. That's a sweet spot at the moment, given that the massive baby boomer generation is entering its golden years and will increasingly require medical care. And that demographic is only going to weigh heavier; the percentage of this country's population aged 65 and older is expected to triple by the year 2050. There's plenty of money to be made in this segment, and HCP has a good track record of making it. Its Q3 2015 adjusted FFO rose by over 5% on a year-over-year basis to $0.79 per share, leaving plenty of cash in the till for some meaty shareholder payouts. HCP DIVIDEND DATA BY YCHARTS By the way, HCP is a dividend aristocrat, meaning it's one of the market's rare stocks that has raised its dividend at least once annually for a minimum of 25 years running. Said payout currently stands at just under $0.57 per share, which yields 5.9%. Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM)For income investors who don't shy away from sin stocks, the tobacco sector provides fertile ground for dividends. It's historically been a high-revenue, high-margin business that throws off a great deal of cash. Enter Philip Morris International, once upon a time the non-U.S. business of the tobacco conglomerate known as Altria, which admirably continues to thrive despite some stiff headwinds. In the company's Q3, its net revenues were down by 9% from the same period the previous year, while net profit declined by 10%. But it was comfortably profitable nevertheless, netting over $1.9 billion on $19 billion in revenue. Also, it should be kept in mind that this was despite unfavorable currency developments (i.e., a strengthened U.S. dollar, which reduces American companies' take from overseas), and lingering sluggishness in European markets. PM NET INCOME (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS There's also the specter of regulation, with certain countries trying to clamp down somewhat on the cigarette industry in the interests of making their citizens healthier. In this respect, Philip Morris International has somewhat of an easier time of it than its peers that concentrate on the U.S. market, as American anti-smoking laws are comparatively stricter. Philip Morris International pays a $1.02 per share dividend, high enough to yield 4.6% based on the most recent share price.
EQIX. Been in it for a few years now, but haven't recently looked into how much growth I think is left. Need to get on that. It's performed well, though.
I would be a little careful with too much REIT exposure in a rising rate environment. It's ok to have it as part of your strategy but probably should be a small sliver
Fund managers' cash levels are at their highest in nearly 15 years amid worries over a British exit from the European Union and the possibility that global monetary policy is failing. Portfolios are at 5.7 percent cash, the highest level since November 2001 and "consistent with recession," according to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey. Allocation to equities hit a four-year low, though commodity allocation reached a 12-month high. UPDATE: A look at where cash levels have been historically: Cash over time Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch The rise in fear comes even though stock market prices continue to hold positive, and estimates are that the string of declines in corporate profits will end in the third quarter. The CBOE Volatility Index, a popular market fear gauge, is around its highest levels since early February.
Almost sold a large position in my S&P500 fund last week and decided not to. Regretting that now. I think if the Dow ever sniffs 18000 again I'm out until this inevitable recession hits.
don't try to time the market! gotta stay in baby. maybe reallocate a little but you gotta stay in the game
Anyone catch John Oliver's retirement segment? Like anything there's some bs/hyperbole in there, but there was lots of good stuff as well. Most 401K plans are complete dog shit, and it's most common that an administrator has never even looked into much of anything to do with them. I don't personally do any of that business because I don't like the platforms or the firms associated with them. I really wish we would come up with a really low cost vanilla platform we could just give to our clients who own businesses.
We moved to Cuna because they were such low cost with fees and then added in vanguard funds. Small business can even pay the admin fees rather than it come out of participants principals.
Anyone here run any investment properties? end of this year or early next year I'm thinking about buying a 3 bedroom townhouse in Houston for 240-250k. Should be able to rent it for ~2300-2500 a month. Was talking to someone who has a couple rental properties and she said she gave people a little below market rent but told them they're responsible for the first $300 of any repairs or issues. Thought that was an interesting idea.
I underwrite and originate apartment loans, but have been on the equity/operator side most of my career. It's basically a threshold written into the lease (and gives off the Triple Net vibe where the tenant is responsible for x, y, and z). It's good because it tells/trains the tenant to repair minor things themselves and you only get called for true capital/contractor level repairs. At the end of the day, your lease is the legal contract which governs the LL/Tenant relationship. Addendum the every living hell out of it to make sure you're covered.
i use postmates. delivery fee varies depending on the relationship they have with the restaurant. a stable $3.99 would be dope ...
I think it would be better to itemize rather than use a dollar amount. And require notification when they repair along with invoices, etc. to keep track. Leaks, AC in the summer, heat in the winter, locks, broken windows are all Emergency calls that should be called in no matter the time. Broken interior door handle, toilet running, garbage disposal, etc. are all non-emergency calls that you can either repair yourself or LL repairs in a timely manner. Structure the best way for your investment and management process.
Liquidity is gone in the options market this morning. Not a good sign for the overall market. watch out below until #brexit
How are you playing volatility? I've been long VXX since around the time of this post and am considering taking the profits. Are you thinking the Brexit paranoia will continue to mount? I have admittedly not followed the polling as close as I should have this week.
I would take some of the profits and hold some until just before the vote next week. I don't see the volatility subsiding until there becomes more certainty about the result of the vote. Banks have been buying options in tremendous size since late last week. VXX long term is an absolutely horrible investment so you need to have an exit strategy. Vxx will get crushed if the vote is REMAIN but could possibly explode on EXIT. SO I personally would be taking some profits now and probably selling out the position gradually before next Thursday. Maybe leaving a little money on the table trying to hit the homerun on an EXIT vote.
5th straight day of downturns.. Brexit + fed revising downward + nearly 7 years of free money and low interest rates?
Something came out over the weekend showing momentum for "Remain" in the brexit talks and the market took off. A lot of the fear seems to have deflated, which I don't necessarily understand. The polls are super tight and oddsmakers are still giving a 25% of "exit". Liquidity is still really thin in the options market as no one wants to take on risk before the vote. The SnP is close to where it was when the brexit fears really started picking up. It will be interesting to see if it can hold these gains leading up to the vote? And if the outcome is "Remain" how much will the market rally? Should be interesting to watch and trade.
The MP getting shot seems to have been the turning point from a market sentiment standpoint. That news came out almost exactly when I asked how you were playing volatility and it has been all downhill from there. Thankfully I lucked out and sold my entire position when I saw that news. I'm still considering taking a gamble depending on how things look tomorrow.
Right when the energy capital markets start opening up... Britain does something like this and totally makes me do nothing for the next few months