Strongly considered selling out of my mutual fund at the end of the day yesterday but decided the news was too overwhelmingly positive. Good thing I'm not planning on buying a house for another year.
The market is only down 3-4% from when the brexit nervousness started. If you really wanted the cash for your house it's not a bad time to sell imo.
At the time he wrote that the 10-yr (highest correlation to mortgage rates) was more than 25 basis points lower. It has given up a little of the gains but it is still 20 bps lower to 1.546%. Good on him for being on top of it. On a related note, this is the current implied probability of a Fed Rate Hike vs. yesterday's probability. 7/27/16: 0.0% (10.0% prob of cut) -- yesterday 10% 9/21/16: 0.0% (15.4% prob of cut) -- 31.6% 11/2/16: 0.0% (17.2% prob of cut) -- 34.5% 12/14/16: 11.7% -- 50.1% 2/1/17: 11.7% -- 52.1%
Im not so sure. The market will be very volatile. But ask yourself this question. Is a selloff of about ~3% enough to reflect the increased risk caused by Brexit? I personally think rumors of other countries leaving the euro are going to start permeating the market. The SnP was at 2090 when the brexit nerves started showing FWIW. With my 25% cash I am not going into the market until next week at best. Don't care if I give up a few percent on the upside as this brexit could take us down another 10% easily IMO
To clarify my statement was in a broader sense, I don't expect the bleeding to stop today. I think it's very possible what you said could happen, but as you know, nobody can time the market perfectly. If you're a long term investor like most people I don't think you'd regret buying today or next week in the long run.
I know market orders through an online broker aren't instantaneous but how long should they realistically take to be filled in a scenario like today? Had one take almost 15 minutes this morning, which is fine since it worked out in my benefit, just curious for future meltdowns.
Seems like everyone always tells you the stock market works itself out in the long term but then everyone gets panicky in the short term. Now that I have significant money in the stock market i hope it isn't the sham I think it is.
We got a similar email from our trading desk to rate lock and discuss refi's. Swim can c/p what I sent him via email as I'm out today. Just got my house appraised this morning for a refi too.
Just don't cannibalize your growth and you're fine. If you try to time the market, you will get completely owned. Don't touch it.
what stock and what broker? unless its thinly traded it should have been executed pretty damn quick. i have noticed in the past when i put market orders in before the market it opens they take longer to execute, i have better luck putting orders in after its opened. still has never taken 15 minutes though
The biggest mistake retail investors make is pulling out of the market during events like this. They think they are preserving their remaining wealth, but in reality they are missing the ride back up. Then they jump back in when they think its safe and have missed most of those gains.
Scottrade and volume was over 1.5m by 8:45 (now near 10m) so not thinly traded. I put the order in literally 2 seconds after the open. Will definitely be switching brokers. I liked their tools when I joined but yeah, I have no idea what happened on this one.
You might could call the broker and ask what happened. There could be a legitimate explanation, I know there were halts on several stocks this morning. Execution should take place less than one second after you click the button. 15 minutes, to me, means something fucked up on their end. Thank goodness it worked out in your favor.
i think that's the right way to play this assuming you had some cash on hand. one of my buddies works is a partner at a firm that manages over 2 bil. they had 25% cash on hand. main partner sent out an email last night about how pumped he was to have some cash to use over the next few weeks.
yeah thats weird. we have a couple of accounts at scottrade and get instant fills, but thats the advisor platform (but would think it would be similar). are you sure you didn't get filled at a price when you entered the order and just didn't get the confirm until later? i've had that happen a few times on high volume days like this. we have 1 account at interactive brokers, i fucking hate them. terrible fills, shitty website & shittier customer service. trying to get that account moved
they had 25% cash on hand for an event that most everyone thought wouldn't occur would happen? somebody posted yesterday it was +400 in vegas betting on a leave vote
Nope. Entered sell order at 8:30:02, gave it about 15 seconds, went to buy something else and was told i didn't have the available funds. Sell order complete at 8: 42:48. I can't even be mad though because im pretty sure i missed the day's high by about 15 seconds this way.
most of their clients are former business owners who sold out. they're about as conservative as it gets.
I've got some cash to play with but my guy told me we should wait a week at least to make any moves taking his advice and rolling with it I don't have a reason against it. Pops picked up some credit Suisse
Yeah Barclays is a good bet. Many of the large global financials I like, such as Barclays, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan...things along those lines. That sector is getting hammered today, as expected. Also like BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Usually though I think it's best to buy the market over individual stocks in times like this (well, all the time, tbqh; but some people just love individual companies). A global index fund like ACWI, or for a more aggressive play maybe the UK index fund (EWU). You can do it today or maybe early to mid next week if the bleeding continues into then, which is somewhat expected.
I have to lock in a mortgage rate for my construction loan in the next 2-3 weeks. Is now the best time or is it worth seeing next week what the markets do? I'm waiting on an email but was told rates dropped 1/8th across the board.
though the CFP in me is saying "you shouldn't have money in the market that you might use to buy a house"
It's been a while since I have gotten a mortgage, but the last two mortgages I got had a 30 day "reset" period that you could use once. Basically if rates went lower over the next 30 days then you could get the lower rate, but only once. Am I mistaken in that memory?
That's our option too. Need to lock it in sometime before the closing on the construction loan. Then a float down option when it converts to a perm loan.
citi only at .7 book value JPMorgan is less than 10 p/e lloyds and royal bank scotland etc. all at like 4 or 5. tons of value out there in financials if you wanna go long
Those ratios are based on the assumption that their earnings remain the same after Brexit. I don't think that is a good assumption.