Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Guess I should have sold my SQ holdings last week.
     
  2. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
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    A little off topic but I recall on this thread (or maybe the credit card one) someone shared a youtube channel that explained basic accounting principles/money related life skills everyone should know. Anyone know what I'm talking about?
     
  3. ned's head

    ned's head Well-Known Member
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    Anyone have any resources on (early) retirement planning? We will have our house paid off and be debt free in the next 8 months, so I want to start making a plan.

    Currently have our 401k plans maxed and investments in indexed ETFs.
     
  4. * J Y *

    * J Y * TEXAS
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    There's really good proprietary software out there that makes this process really easy. My advice is let a pro make sure you don't have any blind spots and then get invested in a way thats going to align with your retirement goals. I've yet to see a comprehensive plan that didn't pay for itself.
     
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  5. ned's head

    ned's head Well-Known Member
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    Thanks. Is the software that you've seen limited to forecasting for how much you need, withdrawal rates, and inflation estimates, or is there product information? I have a pretty good feel for the statistical stuff...I was hoping to find some info on asset allocation strategies. I'm getting about 3% dividends on my etf portfolio now, but I'm curious how else I can safely invest my cash over the next 20 years.
     
  6. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    Just a week after disappointing news in terms of the number of Americans who found jobs in April, new numbers show more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week than at any time in the last 15 months.

    The U.S. Labor Department is reporting that applications for jobless benefits rose by 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 294,000.
     
  7. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Nvidia up ~14% after better than expected earnings. :feelsgoodman:
     
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  8. BhamBammer

    BhamBammer Showtime for Heisman
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    Please tell me I'm not the only one to get in on $MGT before the John McAfee news. Holy fuck it's going off the rails
     
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  9. racer

    racer Yuma, where I work in software.
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    Bought at around $2 hoping it can still do something. Missed the $5.60 peak the other day or I would have bailed at that price.
     
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  10. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Laffer Curve on Interest Rates? Found this article interesting.

    - "He says that maybe the conventional wisdom that the lower interest rates go, the stronger the economic response is wrong."
    - “Every time the Fed publicly dallies with the idea of raising rates, and then backs off, it reinforces the idea that the recovery has no momentum,”

    - very low rates means capital may not be made efficiently, because the hurdle rate of return is so low that just about any project can look profitable. Shepherdson points to misallocation examples from U.S. oil drilling to stock buybacks.

    - He posits that there is something called the fed funds Laffer curve, where lower rates boost growth until the signaling and misallocation problems exceed the benefits of lower debt service



    Why there could be a Laffer curve — for the fed funds rate

    SteveGoldstein
    D.C. bureau chief

    The Laffer curve took over the conservative conversation on taxes nearly from its introduction.
    Popularized by Arthur Laffer — reportedly sketched on the back of a napkin — the Laffer curve illustrates that there’s a point where a decrease in tax rates actually increases tax revenue.
    ‘Every time the Fed publicly dallies with the idea of raising rates, and then backs off, it reinforces the idea that the recovery has no momentum.’
    Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics
    Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, is applying the Laffer concept to another market: the federal funds rate. He says that maybe the conventional wisdom that the lower interest rates go, the stronger the economic response is wrong.
    For one, the very fact of extremely low rates signals to both firms and households that something is wrong with the economy. “Every time the Fed publicly dallies with the idea of raising rates, and then backs off, it reinforces the idea that the recovery has no momentum,” Shepherdson said.
    The other issue is that very low rates means capital may not be made efficiently, because the hurdle rate of return is so low that just about any project can look profitable. Shepherdson points to misallocation examples from U.S. oil drilling to stock buybacks.
    He posits that there is something called the fed funds Laffer curve, where lower rates boost growth until the signaling and misallocation problems exceed the benefits of lower debt service.
    Apparently, the Fed itself discussed the concept, according to minutes from the September meeting, when rates were at zero. “A prompt decision to firm policy could provide a signal of confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy that might spur rather than restrain economic activity,” the minutes read.
    [​IMG]

    This chart shows the limit of monetary policy in spurring the economy.
    Shepherdson then took a look at whether his theory fits the data. He looked at the fed funds rate along with quantitative easing, plotted against year-over-year GDP growth lagging by two years (lagged to account for how long it takes for rate changes to be transmitted to the economy).
    The results, he said, are not good. “The Fed’s actions over the past few years appear to have taken the stance of policy far past the point where it was helping the economy, and pushing it to where it might have been positively harmful,” he said.
    Not surprisingly, Shepherdson takes the view the central bank should raise rates as soon as possible.
    “We still think Brexit risk is a serious barrier to June, and September is our base case. But July is possible, if [Fed chief Janet] Yellen and her colleagues can overcome their fear of hiking into thin summer markets, at a meeting with no new forecasts and no scheduled press conference.”
    Brexit refers to Britain’s possible exit from the European Union, due for a vote in a June 23 referendum.
     
  11. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    The bolded is my big worry.
     
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  12. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    bad jobs number this morning. Odds of june rate increase plunge. Gonna be tough to raise rates into that number. Probably should still raise a little but ..... that's a pretty bad number.

    hmmm
     
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  13. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    jesus

    WASHINGTON—U.S. companies slowed their hiring drastically in May and unemployment fell as people dropped out of the labor force, a bleak picture for Federal Reserve officials as they prepare to debate increasing short-term interest rates at a policy meeting this month.

    Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 38,000 in May, the weakest performance since September 2010, the Labor Department said Friday. Revisions showed employers added a combined 59,000 fewer jobs in April and March than previously estimated.

    Payrolls in the telecommunications industry were down 37,200 from April due in part to a Verizon Communications Inc. strike throughout the survey period. But payrolls were weak even without the Verizon impact.

    The unemployment rate, which is obtained from a separate survey of U.S. households, fell to 4.7% in May from 5.0% in April. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had predicted payrolls would rise by 158,000 and the unemployment rate would hold steady.

    The share of Americans participating in the labor force fell to 62.6% in May, down 0.2 percentage point from April and matching the level from December 2015.
     
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  14. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    Obama gonna need another economic mythbusters speech today?
     
  15. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    "..... the unemployment rate is 4.7%, everything is fine"
     
  16. High Cotton

    High Cotton Where does this fall in our Christian walk?
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    All the morning shows are blasting it. Our agency underwriters are going to be rate locking hard today after the 10T dropped so much. We get daily pricing emails from our trading desk every morning, below is the follow up related the reports:

    I’m sure you are all focused in on the jobs report from 8:30 AM Eastern this morning AND its impact on interest rates.. but this one is worth the extra focus.


    Nonfarm Payrolls rose by just 38,000, the smallest amount since September 2010. There were downward revisions in April and March payroll #s as well.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics that publishes these numbers noted that the Verizon strike accounted for a 35K decline, but even with that, payrolls would have only been up a disappointing 73K. The market was expecting 160k new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% from 5%, but that was because the labor pool shrunk dramatically (484k less people looking for jobs).


    Interest rates along the entire Treasury curve are down 8-11 bps. 10 year Treasuries are at 1.71%, down 8.5 bps this morning after the payroll report. A Fed Funds rate increase in a week and 1/2 is arguably off the table. This type of employment number makes it very hard for the Fed to raise the Fed Fund rates.


    Establishment Survey


    Nonfarm Payrolls = 38K vs consensus = 160K

    Private Payrolls = 25K vs consensus = 150K

    Manufacturing Payrolls = -10K vs consensus = -2K

    Average Hourly Earnings MoM = 0.2% vs consensus = 0.2%

    Average Hourly Earnings YoY = 2.5% vs consensus = 2.5%

    Private Workweek = 34.4 vs consensus = 34.5


    Unemployment Rate = 4.7% vs consensus = 4.9%

    Change in employment = 26K

    Change in unemployed = -484K

    Participation Rate = 62.6%

    Underemployment Rate (U6)= 9.7%
     
  17. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Wow half a million people stopped looking for jobs.
     
  18. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    SSI tho

    also, means rate hike off the table til august, earliest
     
  19. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
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    Current Implied Probabilities:
    6/15/16: 4.0%
    7/27/16: 29.0%
    09/21/16: 41.7%
    11/02/16: 45.5%
    12/14/16: 59.4%
    02/01/2017: 62.0%
     
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  20. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Im still thinking July. Brexit will be over with and I think at some point the Fed needs to make a stand and start raising rates. Would like to see a surprise at this June meeting to drum up some business for me but not looking good.
     
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  21. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    they will need to see at a minimum 2 months of job reports with 100k+ new jobs. unless june blows it out of the water with 300k+ jobs, they wont do it in july. too many doves.

    fuck your business. i like my money.
     
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  22. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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  23. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    Why would an uber driver take a $7 delivery when they can take a $20 rider?
     
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  24. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Would wal-mart be subsidizing it? Good question.
     
  25. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Another similar article

    Wal-Mart to test grocery delivery with Uber, Lyft
    20 hours ago
    6/3/2016, 12:46:39 AM
    By Nandita Bose and Arathy S Nair
    June 2 (Reuters)-Wal-Mart Stores IncWMT.Nwill partner with ride hailing services UberUBER.ULand Lyft to trial online grocery deliveries, as it looks to speed up shipment times and better compete with rivals like Amazon.com IncAMZN.O
    The world's largest retailer said it would begin test deliveries within the next two weeks in Denver and Phoenix. Wal-Mart's warehouse unit Sams Club began a pilot in March with startup Deliv to dispatch groceries to business customers in Miami.
    Improving delivery times is seen as a way to appeal to busy inner-city workers who do not own cars and for whom grocery trips are often limited to what they can carry home. Amazon already operates Prime Fresh, a same-day "fresh produce and grocery" delivery service.
    Wal-Mart said it will charge customers a $7 to $10 delivery charge for its new delivery service, and will also alert customers when their order is being delivered.
    The largest grocer in the United States is already expanding its online order options to offer grocery deliveries within two days for a $49 minimum annual fee. It also comes at a time when Wal-Mart is betting big on its online grocery pick-up service.
    In April, Reuters reported that Wal-Mart was expanding free curbside pickup of groceries into eight new cities including Kansas City and Austin. On Thursday, it said it would expand that service to 14 new markets by late June.(Full Story)
    Online groceries are a $10.9 billion industry in the United States, and the market is expected to grow 9.6 percent annually through 2019, according to a December report by market research firm IbisWorld.
    One of the largest players in the segment is Amazon, which delivers groceries in Seattle, New York, Philadelphia, and northern and southern California.
    For Wal-Mart, the move in online grocery follows a $2.7 billion investment over the past two years boosting worker wages and training, steps that it hopes will improve its customer service and help boost sales.
     
  26. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Because it isn't competing against a $20 rider. It's competing for when there are no riders to be picked up so you're better taking a $7 delivery than sitting around waiting for a rider.
     
  27. The Banks

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    Exactly. So dependent upon how busy they are it'd make no sense for them to deliver. Then Wal-mart does what if they can't get a driver?
     
  28. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    I doubt they're guaranteeing 30 minute delivery. There will be someone willing to deliver it within a reasonable time period.
     
  29. DollarBillHokie

    DollarBillHokie Usher is the worst
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    I have to imagine the driver in a normal situation gets a larger cut of the fee and Uber gets a smaller cut of the fee. Additionally, I imagine the typical surge times aren't when people are looking to order groceries from Walmart.
     
  30. BP

    BP Bout to Regulate.
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    Wonder if Walmart would just hire out a driver for set amount of hours and/or give them some kind of incentive per delivery. Got to think it'd be worth it during the middle of the day when nothing is going on.
     
  31. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    tmbrules

    Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen went out of her way Monday to stress that the U.S. economy appears fundamentally solid.

    The job market has rebounded. Consumer spending is picking up along with confidence. Higher home prices have lifted household wealth. Low energy prices have strengthened spending power.

    Yet the Fed chair also sent a contrasting message in a speech in Philadelphia: So many uncertainties surround the economy that it's impossible to sketch any timetable for when the Fed might raise interest rates again.

    Thirteen times Yellen mentioned some variation of the word "uncertainty" — starting with a question raised by a dismal jobs report the government issued Friday:

    "Is the markedly reduced pace of hiring in April and May," Yellen asked, "a harbinger of a persistent slowdown in the broader economy?"

    She didn't claim to know the answer. The Fed, she said, "will be wrestling" with that question in the months ahead — just as it will be studying other uncertainties she pointed to. In contrast to what she signaled late last month, when Yellen said a rate hike would likely be appropriate in "coming months," she offered no timetable Monday for the Fed to resume raising rates.

    That "suggests to us that she is in no hurry," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. "We are telling clients to take the summer off. See all of you Fed watchers in September."
     
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  32. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
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  33. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    I was thinking about this last night and it occurred to me that they could just price the delivery fee (or time to delivery) based on uber surge pricing. If there is surge pricing for Uber then obviously delivery fee would be higher or delivery times would be longer etc.

    Will be interesting to see if it gains any traction.
     
  34. Gallant Knight

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    so guessing yall in places where uber eats doesnt exist yet. lots of people whose car does not qualify for regular uber are doing uber eats, which is basically a meal delivery service. guessing these are the the people who would be doing the walmart delivery stuff.

    uber eats opened in houston like 3 months ago, and it was just menu pricing and free delivery paid through paypal just like uber. about a month ago they introduced a $3.99 delivery fee, but all the food is still menu price. like ~100+ restaurants in houston are participating.
     
  35. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    I had never heard of Uber Eats but hoping it gets to my city soon. Will use.

    Don't see how delivering something from Walmart would be much different. Maybe the size of the items but that's about it.
     
  36. dallasdawg

    dallasdawg does the tin man have a sheet metal cock?
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    unless you're an uber VIP :smugdog:
     
  37. animal_mother

    animal_mother Well-Known Member
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    Not that they would make more than drivers who pick up riders but in smaller towns where there isn't need for cabs, I could see a lot people who would be willing to deliver stuff for a flat rate. Would be a way to get Uber and Lyft in front of people outside of larger cities.
     
  38. Gallant Knight

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    uber eats is awesome. they have whats called an 'instant delivery' lunch menu m-f in high business areas of town. like 6 items from different restaurants for like 8-10 bucks and it's always here in like 5 minutes.

    https://ubereats.com/houston/menu/ - the instant delivery menu for this week.
     
  39. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    That's badass. Could really use that around here.
     
  40. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    cant wait for uber's IPO one day

    #TAKEALLMYMONEY
     
  41. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    The company created Xchange Leasing last year as a wholly-owned Uber subsidiary. For a $250 deposit, an Uber driver can lease a new midsize or economy car, be it a Chevrolet Malibu, Honda Accord or Toyota Prius.

    Add a monthly insurance payment, and drivers like Andrew Thornton are on their way.

    "Where in America can you get into a brand-new car for $500?" said Thornton, 52, who leased a 2016 Hyundai Elantra in September. "My car was sick, and the transmission was slipping, and I needed a new car to Uber."

    This at a time when Americans are paying more than ever for car payments. The latest data from Experian shows the average auto loan topped $30,000 in the first quarter for the first time. Auto loans topped $1 trillion for the first time ever during the first quarter, according to Experian, with increases in both the share of subprime borrowers and loans that are 30 days and 60 days delinquent.

    Uber knows full well that for many people the Uber gig lasts just a few months. Owning a new car is not always feasible nor is it a priority. Here's the key: The car can be returned at any time with two weeks' notice, and the customer just loses the deposit with no further obligations.
     
  42. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Seems like a pretty good deal.
     
  43. DollarBillHokie

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    Bloomberg had an article about how it is screwing drivers. The article didn't make sense to me because a two week no cost walk away on a quickly depreciating asset at rates that are similar to new car loans didn't seem like a good business for anyone except the driver.
     
  44. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
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    Could be good for the business depending on what deals they were getting on the vehicles, and manufacturers also due to moving the volume
     
  45. Gallant Knight

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    Been about a year since this.

    SDRL trading under 4.

    I recommended EXR that was under 70 at the time. It's over 90 now and has paid a 3.5% dividend
     
  46. Rabid

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    I think I may have been "the guy that claimed there were better options." I recall cautioning people about buying the equity with the bank debt trading in the 40s.
     
    #6647 Rabid, Jun 8, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 8, 2016
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  47. Gallant Knight

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    haha i think it was me. i shit all over SDRL and the offshore drillers. think it was all lost in the crash tho.
     
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  48. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
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    There may have been multiple voices of reason. I recall many posts over Memorial Day weekend while I was on vacation. That was about the time TMB went down and many posts were lost. :tebow:
     
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  49. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    No arguing the results, but I still stick with the original post and its reasoning. I remember at the time saying that it wasn't at all an "investment", but pure speculation almost guaranteed to have wild swings. Buying and holding SDRL was not and is not a play I'd go for, but speculating on it a bit over a short period of time as opposed to say betting on the Cavs/Warriors is an option. I still think it's an interesting option for strictly speculation/gambling, but not something to put your retirement or rent money on. It has doubled and halved and doubled and halved and tripled and quartered probably 3-4x since that post.