I took that to mean they are buying the hard assets (actual rigs). I would think a retail investor would have to find a consolidator with little to no debt that is doing the same.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2006, ending what Chairwoman Janet Yellen called an “extraordinary period” in which the bank sought to revive the economy in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Policy makers on Wednesday voted 10 to 0 to lift the Fed’s short-term borrowing rate by a quarter-point to a range of 0.25% to 0.5%. The Fed’s short-term rate had kept near zero for seven years, marking an unprecedented era in the history of U.S. monetary policy triggered by the worst financial crisis and economic downturn since the 1930s. Fed officials said an improved economy was ready for a rate hike, pointing to “solid” consumer spending, a rebounding housing market and stronger business fixed investment. The central bank also took careful note of a healthier labor market in which the unemployment rate has tumbled to 5% — just half as much compared to the early stages of a recovery that began in mid-2009. “The first thing that Americans should realize is that the Fed’s decision today reflects our confidence in the U.S. economy,” Yellen said in a press conference after the Fed action. Yet the Fed used new language in its statement to soften the blow to the end of easy money, stressing repeatedly that the pace of interest-rate hikes would be “gradual.” Interest rates are expected to rise a bit slower, for example, in 2017 and 2018 than the Fed previously predicted. U.S. stocks closed with strong gains. Treasury prices fell and the yields rose. The Fed action “was done in as non-threatening way as possible,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. Yellen’s message centered on the traditional view that Fed policy most be proactive. A dovish view? To bring on board the doves in the Fed who were hesitant to raise rates, the majority led by Yellen appeared to put special emphasis on the surprisingly low rate of inflation. ”We really need to monitor over time actual inflation performance to make sure that it is conforming, it is evolving, in the manner that we expect,” Yellen said. In other words, it will take more than just “confidence” that inflation will rise for the Fed to act. During her press conference, Yellen refused to be more specific about what “actual” inflation performance meant. She said if inflation diverged from expectations, the Fed would respond. The U.S. central bank still expects inflation to pick up sharply next year to a 1.6% annual rate from 0.4% rate this year. Not all the signals the Fed sent were dovish. The central bank didn't change its so-called dot plot for 2016 that projects one rate hike each quarter. According to this forecast, the target fed-funds rate would reach a 1.4% rate at the end of 2016. The Fed also dismissed worries that weak oil and commodity prices were poised to push the economy into a downturn. “Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the FOMC sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced,” the statement said. Yellen said that consumer spending, housing activity and business investment could surprise to the upside and said there were pockets of improving conditions in the global economy. Still, the Fed made it clear that interest rates aren’t going up quickly. The median path for the “dot plot” declined by 20 basis points in 2017 to 2.4%, and 10 basis points in 2018 to 3.3%, suggesting one fewer cut over the two years than the FOMC had projected in September. For now the central bank plans to maintain its huge reserve of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities that it acquired through a controversial policy known as quantitative easing. The Fed boosted its balance sheet to a stunning $4.5 trillion in its strategy to lower the borrowing costs of consumers and businesses, thereby aiding an ailing economy. All sorts of business and consumer debt, ranging from auto loans and mortgages to corporate lines of credit, are tied to the Fed’s benchmark rate. They tend to move up and down in tandem with the fed funds rate, giving the economy a boost or preventing it from overheating. While the economy has still not returned to historic growth levels, the U.S. is performing much better than most other countries that adopted less aggressive approaches. What remains to be seen is whether the Fed can reduce its huge mound of reserves without damaging the economy in unexpected ways.
So I need some guidance on what to do with a sum of monies, currently in one stock that has been in my family for a long time...some of which is mine. At this point I want to diversify it out a bit due to the risk of having all of this in one basket, so to speak. Part of me wants to give it to a managed asset allocation account, the people in this firm I trust (not a random). Obvious drawbacks are the fees against the assets I put with them. Plus this isnt a $1MM+ account, so is the managed return worth the fee? The other part of me wonders if i am better off doing it myself. No fees but obviously more work, which can be rewarding. I have an MBA so I know I can 'get investing' but just dont know if putting my time and effort, and maybe more importantly emotion (could be good, could be bad) is worth saving the fees. We are 32 so not looking to cash in anytime soon, but want to make sure it's there and growing for the long haul.
wooo govt regs! the new normal --- The economy expanded a touch slower in the third quarter than previously reported, revised government figures show, but the path of growth is still the same: The U.S. running well below the historical norm more than six years into a recovery. Gross domestic product — the sum of all the activity in an economy — increased at a 2% annual pace from July to September, according to the government’s latest update. Previously the Commerce Department had said the U.S. grew at a 2.1% rate after a 3.9% increase in the second quarter. The slight downgrade was triggered by a larger trade deficit and a smaller buildup in inventories than earlier estimates showed. The U.S. expanded at a 2.2% rate through the first nine months of the year, and the economy is projected to grow at a similar pace in the fourth quarter that ends on Dec. 31. If so, the economy will have failed to reach 3% growth for the 10th straight year, marking the slowest stretch since the end of World War II. Historically the economy has expanded at a 3.3% rate. The government’s second update on GDP growth reflected a somewhat worse trade picture in the late summer and early fall. Exports rose a slower 0.7% instead of an earlier 0.9% estimate. And imports climbed 2.3% instead of 2.1%. Companies also rebuilt inventories somewhat less than the government had tallied. The value of inventories increased $85.5 billion, down from a prior $90.2 billion estimate. Inventories had jumped by $113.5 billion in the second quarter when the economy expanded at a much faster 3.9% clip. Spending on home construction rose at a faster 8.2% pace in the third quarter instead of 7.3%, the revised Commerce Department figures show. Most other figures in the GDP report were little changed. The increase in consumer spending stayed at 3%, for example, while business investment in structures such as office buildings was nudged up to 2.6% from 2.4%
Lending Club just became available for investors in Michigan, so I think I'm going to try it. Looks like they have a referral bonus program - want to send me a link? I assume its the kind of thing where we both get a little money out of the deal.
I bought a lot of WMT when it dipped below 60. Also have a decent position in GLO--pays a 10 cent dividend every month. One of the favorites of a buddy I have who is a partner at a firm that manages around 3 billion in assets.
It looks like I can send you a link and you would get $100 or something when you join. It doesn't appear as if there is anything in it for me but if there is I would gladly return that to you also.? If you PM me your email I'll send the link.
I assume your buddy works at Clough and is pitching his own fund. Bloomberg is showing that fund's NAV declined 18% YTD. Even assuming a 10% dividend (0.10x12 = 1.20 in dividends / NAV of ~12 for the year) that is an 8% loss - atrocious.
I think you could use it as a tool to trade oil. Trade, but not invest. In general I don't like being long crude here ..... I just think its going to take a while for the market to find the right combination of supply and demand and right now the cards are stacked to the supply side. That being said you can certainly pick your points to enter and exit Oil but if it was me I would pick my entry / exit points with stop losses pre-determined.
Hope you aren't holding for more than a couple days at a time. I ranged traded it along with dwti a bit this fall (when oil was in a pretty solid range for ~3 months). I don't have the balls to touch either right now and probably won't until this spring.
What a depressing year for my first year of owning stocks. Guess I'm thankful for being part of a pension program.
I'm guessing you already had this one on your fridge? http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/stock-market-hillary-clinton-121740
i fucking posted it in the INVESTING thread, dont be like everyone else who responds to my posts by trying to turn it into something political
Spoiler Trading Update · Market update – stocks are starting off 2016 deeply in the red w/mainland China leading the world lower. It’s hard to attribute the softness to anything having to do w/fundamentals – the manufacturing PMIs in China didn’t shift the narrative for that topic while the services indices continue to show healthy growth and the numbers from elsewhere in Asia and throughout Europe were mostly inline (overall no growth assumptions are changing anywhere on the world following today’s ISMs). The China weakness appears driven by the same factors that weighed on sentiment over the summer: FX uncertainty (the PBOC set the online reference rate lower and the offshore CNY slumped ~0.6%) and policy concerns (Chinese stocks were halted for the first time ever as new circuit breakers took effect but this seemed to only undermine confidence further; meanwhile, investors are nervous as a ban on stock sales enacted over the summer will soon expire). Away from China, the other big news came out of the Middle East as relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further (crude is higher off the heightened geopolitical tensions but only fractionally). For the broader tape, it still feels like the SPX is biased to the upside for Q1 driven by stability in the USD and oil.
Anyone have any thoughts on AAPL with this rough start and the announced decline in phone sales/production? Down to around $100 a share right now and I'm hoping that slide continues, mid 90s seems like a strong buy level to me
China trading halted after down 5% circuit breaker reached. Dow futures trading down ~130. Volatility is here to stay. Seems to be a traders market.
lol all i said shit isnt all that rosy chinese market being halted within THIRTY MINUTES (again) is not a good sign. has nothing to do with hillary as much as you want it to be
good day, I'm here for some basic advice on internet investor sites. I've been looking and really have no idea as to which would be good or if any are even worth putting my money into. My interests are for long term investing but may look into short term as well. I'm not looking for stock tips but some general knowledge and experience. TIA.
So what would be a good split between large cap, small, cap, international, target date funds, and bonds if we are facing a bear market for an extended period? Rabid
Regarding Target date funds: I don't see the point in investing a target date fund and then also choosing other things around it. Target Date Funds aren't part of a balanced portfolio; Target Date Funds are a balanced portfolio. I personally like to choose my own funds and weightings (and pay lower fees) but they are a great option for someone that doesn't have the time or knowledge. Regarding the rest of your question, search google for "Asset Allocation Model" and choose accordingly. If you think we're going to be in an extended bear market either short things to take advantage or move your allocation way more conservative (hold cash and bonds--particularly short-term and avoid equities & high yield bonds) to minimize your downside.
Consider asset classes that traditionally have zero to negative correlations to the overall market. In addition to diversifying among market caps/styles (large cap, small cap) consider diversifying among sectors. Vanguard offers solid sector ETFs. Stocks: These sectors tend to have lower correlations to the S&P : Utilities, Consumer Staples, Healthcare Higher correlations: Industrials, Materials, Consumer Discretionary Bonds: TIPS & short to immediate term US treasuries tend to be negatively correlated to the S&P
You can't short anything in a 401k. It needs to be in an account that has margin capabilities or the freedom to buy inverse funds/etfs.
gotta think US large caps are the play this year. maybe equity utilities too with cheap commodities. also asphalt/construction, particularly in road/bridge building since congress re-upped the transportation bill and a lot of states are upping their gas tax
Been a fun first year of investing. Believe I opened my Robinhood/Vanguard accounts about 10 months ago. Fun. Are we waiting to buy or are we buying now? Seems like we are waiting to buy.
So, I made my first non retirement stock investments towards the middle-end of 2014 I believe. In the last several months they've taken some big hits. Still in my 20s so I didn't care at all due to time horizon and in fact I'd be excited to buy during the downturn.....Except now I'm getting married, building a house, financing a honeymoon, paying parts of the wedding and getting a car all in like a 5 month span and need all the cash I can get. Id really like to avoid selling while things are down, but I may have to use credit card debt for a few months to avoid doing that. Which is the lesser of the two evils?