Going to be at the track Friday-Sunday. Can't fucking wait for the Derby on Sunday. More than likely I'll be taking Flashpoint at anything higher than 6-1 and Uncle Mo anything better than 2-1
I wish I was able to make it to Gulfstream, that's a loaded field for a prep: Soldat, To Honor and Serve, Dialed In, Stay Thirsty, Flashpoint at the top, then add in horses like Watch Me Go, Arch Traveler, and Bowman's Causeway (still like his upside). Flashpoint changes the dynamic of the whole race. With all the other horses in this field, my guess is he'll go off at least 6-1, if not higher. Going to learn more about Soldat than any other horse in this field. Dialed In is going to get a perfect setup- he'll have no excuse if he can't finish here. I expect To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty to improve from their last efforts. My prediction: Stay Thirsty, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, Soldat I also think that Bowman's Causeway will finish ahead of Flashpoint, but don't think he's quite good enough yet to get past the other four horses.
Still think he is the clear best 3 year old in the country, but I hope he gets more of a test in the Wood. Unfortunately, I doubt he will, unless Jaycito decides to ship from California.
No, his owner Mike Repole wanted him in the Wood next weekend, and his stablemate Stay Thirsty went to the Florida Derby.
current top 5 is 1. sway away 2. flash point 3. the factor 4. uncle mo 5. premier pegasus I think he's the most talented 3YO in hte country, but I put alot of stock into knocking heads with other good horses. If you think abou tit.. he's raced for like 8 months now, and he hasn't had ONE tough race yet. not even the breeders cup race was hard on him. Flash point is gong to maul the Florida derby.
Race 11 - Olympic Election Should go off between 10-15 to 1. Ever since his last race Ive been waiting for him to run again. He stumbled badly and was stuck in the gate. 20 lengths back right away. He only ended 4 lengths behind.
there is not a horse in the race that will hit the board in the kentucky derby. my home made nigga rigged beyer speed figure for the race, which is usually somewhat accurate, is a 95. they ran the last furlong in almost 14 seconds. all he fucking had to do is go to the fucking lead. go to the fucking lead and make them catch you. i knew he lost the second they hit the first turn. no one passed anyone! all he had to do was go to the lead, regardless of how much it took, and make dailed in come get him. god fucking dammit tried to get too cute. even with that said he's off my derby list, he's a sprinter. a damn good one, but a sprinter updated derby 5 1. sway away. - last race he lost a tooth, and he is firing projectiles in the morning at oaklawn. he's gonna be okay. he is one of the only horses I Know that can legit run 9F at 100 + BSF 2. uncle mo - has the talent, lbut i don't like the way he is being campaigned 3. premier peagusus - horse has only lost one time, but I think he has a realitivy low ceiling. with that said, he's a good bet for next weeks' santa anita derby 4. The factor - His running style is going to kill him in the derby but if they leave him alone, he will give them the slip. definatly has enough talent. 5. R Heat lighting - a fucking filly. that's how pitiful this has been. She ran a full second faster then the boys did today, under wraps at that, and on a slower track. she would have demolished the florida derby had she run today. probably going to the oaks, but she can run with these group of boys
Really disappointed how this year has shaken out so far. Thought it was a really strong group of 2 year olds with Uncle Mo, Kantharos, To Honor and Serve, and Boys at Tosconova, but Kantharos and BAT got hurt, THAS has regressed, and Uncle Mo has ran one slow race against mediocre company that essentially was a public workout (and the Wood might turn out that way too). Florida Derby was a big letdown. Can't argue too much with this list. Would have the same top 4 (though in a different order, would go Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus, Sway Away, and The Factor). I would have Dialed In fifth. If this was a ranking of 3 year old's, he probably wouldn't make the list, but since this is a Derby ranking list, I would put him there because he'll get a good pace to run at. R Heat Lightning was definitely the most impressive 3YO that ran at Gulfstream this weekend, and would put her ahead of the horses that ran at the Florida Derby. Honestly, the more I see these horses, the more I am warming up to Animal Kingdom. If he can prove to me that he enjoys the dirt in his workouts, he is a longshot that I could see hitting the board. He'll get the distance, something that I can only say definitively about a couple horses in this group.
pval on sway away for the arknasas derby this is why i don't have uncle mo number 1 1 Starship Caesar........... C. Velasquez 2 Toby's Corner.............. E. Castro 3 Full of Scoundrels ........C. Lopez 4 Arthur's Tale............... R. Dominguez 5 Uncle Mo.................... J. Velazquez 6 Preachintothedevil...... J. Alvarado 7 Duca......................... J Court 8 Norman Asbjornson..... J. Pimentel 9 Isn't He Perfect........... C. Hill 10 Son of Posse.............. F. Maysonett if he is that much better than the field, he's just going to have to beat me. He's not being tested at all. These are allowance and claiming horses, in all seriousness. nothing is going to come out of this but a uncle mo stroke me fest when he wins by 15
Not saying that I am happy about the route he is taking, or even that I would bet on him on the Derby outside of exotics- it just isn't worth doing a win bet in the Derby on a horse that will be less than 5-2 (which he will be assuming he gives a good performance in the Wood). I just happen to think that, in spite of the lack of competition he's faced, there is a gap in talent between him and any other 3YO with the exception of The Factor, and I don't think The Factor is quite going to get a mile and a quarter, whereas I think Uncle Mo will.
the gap is not anywhere near as big as everyone is making it out to be. He's just not running against anyone. there are a few horses that have run faster than him. He ran a 102 beyer int he breeders cup, the factor ran a 103 in the rebel at the same distance. And Mo did that running against horses that wanted no part of 2 turns at all or just weren't that good. Hell bind ran a 106 first out. He's not invincible.
Pretty sure Uncle Mo ran a 108 in the Breeders Cup. And the Breeders Cup field was better than the Rebel field-it may have had Sway Away, but after Alternation acted up in the gate, he wasn't running at his best. And Boys at Tosconova was clearly better (though he's probably at his best going a mile or less) than the other horses in the Rebel. In addition, Jaycito, Rogue Romance, and Stay Thirsty (despite his no-show at the Florida Derby) are at least on the same level (if not ahead) of horses like Archarcharch and Caleb's Posse.
i stand corrected I don't used speed figures so I don't know them off the top of my head not going 2 turns he isn't. that pedigree and hte fact that he started racing before the kentucky derby of his 2YO year, this is not a horse that is going to be a classic type horse. he peaked out at a mile imho. which is the real reason he isn't on the derby trail. Dutrow knew he didn't have a derby horse. outside of jaycito i would actually take the rebel field over the rest of the breeders cup field going 9F. the other field might have shown talent earlier and might have more name exposure, but that doesn't equate better. stay thirsty can't run a lick and rouge romance is a turf horse. I'm not saying mo is not talented. not at all. so you are aruging with yourself on that. I think he can be urber good. I think he is Clearly the most talanted horse out there. I havesaid that more than once. what i AM saying, is that he has not had a tough race yet. If I put fabolous strike, captian candyman can,, big drama, comedaro and jackson bend, in the same gate is blame, and made them run 10F, and blame wins, it doesn't mean it was a tough race just beucase all of the horses that he ran against can run if they can only run 6F. the breeders cup IMHO was not a tough race. the best horse in the race was a sprinter (outside mo), the 2nd best a turf horse, jaycito had just broke his maiden (in a grade 1 race i'll give you, but still, and no horse out that race has won since btw), the 4th choice, the goldophin horse ran absoutly up the track, and rouge romance is a turf horse who they are forcing on the derby trail. He has not ran against a horse like premier pegasus,k the factor, just... a horse that RUN and keep going. you don't coddle horses to the derby (unless you are just that much better than the rest). I'm huge on stats. HUGE on stats. 60% of all derby winners in the last 2 decades, had a start at least 3 weeks before the derby. NO horse has won the derby without running against a graded stakes winner which is what mo is trying to do. The horse has NEVER had dirt in his face, because he's fast enough to to avoid a bad trip which is a good trait, but he's not faster than the factor and he will have dirt in his face on derby day. At, 2 to 1, which is what he is going to go off at.. i can't put that on a non battle tested horse by indian charlie. I just cna't do it. if he beats me i will tip my hat.
Don't disagree with any of that. I get that the Juvenile wasn't tough for him, and that Boys of Tosconova isn't ever going to win at the classic distance. I still would take that field over the Rebel (with a full strength Sway Away, my opinion would change a bit)- I'm still skeptical of Archarcharch, though I like the potential of Caleb's Posse. I don't like the path he is taking to the Derby, but at the same time, there haven't been any routes that have had great fields. Premier Pegasus hasn't beaten anyone besides a Jaycito coming off of a layoff, and Comma to the Top, who isn't being pointed to the Derby because of his distance limitations. To this point, the best field remains to be the San Vicente, which wasn't even a mile in distance. What had potential to be a good field in the Florida Derby was a major letdown. I'm assuming you mean that no horse has won the Derby without running against a graded stakes winner while he was a 3YO, because Uncle Mo did beat a couple horses like BOT (Hopeful), Jaycito (Del Mar), JP's Gusto (Norfolk), and Stay Thirsty (Gotham). I've said many times, I don't like his 3YO schedule- the fact that the best horse he'll face before the Derby is Toby's Corner is a joke. I also won't be betting him during the Derby if he's at 2-1 besides using him in exotics. With that said, I still think he is the most talented 3YO, and one of the most talented horses in the world (can't put him above Goldikova at this point, but the older horses in the classic division this year are not that good, particularly the dirt horses), and until he gives me a reason to (or one of Sway Away, The Factor, or Premier Pegasus takes another step up), I can't drop him from #1 on my list.
And Premier Pegasus is now out of the Santa Anita Derby with a hairline fracture. Not sure how much time he'll miss.
if it's a clean fracture... for it to heal, him to get back into shape.. you probably won't see him until next year. shit
To Honor and Serve is off the Derby trail with a strain to his suspensory ligament in his left foreleg. Also, there's a chance that Jaycito may scratch in the Santa Anita Derby with a bruise in his right front foot. If he misses the SA Derby, he may go in the Lexington Stakes.
lol FiFY this is horse racing politics. now mott is just protecting the clients future stud prosepts by coming up with an injury to explain his sub par performance. he will be retired or you will see him on turf which is mott's thing. horse has a turf pedigree.
I have no clue in the santa anita dery pissed sway away is in arknasas. SA derby is becoming a walk over
okay, im going to go with bench points in the santa anita derby. the two horses that finished ahead of him lat race are scratched. silver medallion is a turf horse and Anthony cross beat a very overrated horse. plus i have a mini crush on the trainer's wife lol.
Don't really have any strong feelings in any of the three preps today (except that Uncle Mo should dominate the Wood), but here are my picks: Santa Anita: 1. Indian Winter (feel he likes SA better, plus second off of a layoff and second route attempt) 2. Comma To The Top 3. Bench Points Wood: 1. Uncle Mo 2. Toby's Corner 3. Norman Asbjornson Illinois: 1. Sour 2. Watch Me Go 3. El Grayling
I rest my case about uncle mo a son of indian charlie going 2 turns, is just going to have to beat me.
It was a disappointing effort from Uncle Mo, but I thought both Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale had real nice races. The final time of this year's Wood was actually a couple hundredth's faster than Eskendereya's time last year, and about 0.4 seconds faster than the G3 Excelsior last weekend that 5 YO Inherit the Gold won (I know that there are some flaws in comparing two races a year apart, and I'm not saying Toby's Corner is as good as Eskendereya was). And Toby's Corner didn't get the easiest of trips. Not expecting a whole lot out of the Santa Anita horses, while it was a nice effort from Midnight Interlude, I would prefer Toby'c Corner if comparing the two winners today. Nobody from the Illinois Derby will do anything. Terrible race. And while it's not Derby related, I'm happy to see Win Willy get another nice win in the Oaklawn Handicap. Not many horses that start at Canterbury end up doing anything noteworthy- I can't even remember the last Graded Stake winner that ran at Canterbury before Win Willy.
fifth third (my nickname for eskendreya) was crip walking basically in the stretch last year. you can throw that time out, he basically cantered past the wire (no doubt in my mind he wouldahve won the triple crown last year. none) I make my own figures (i'm not a figure guy but I like to have reference to what I have seen). I came up with an 88 for the wood and a 94 for the santa anita derby. I came up with a 105 for the carter as well. that was a damn good race If I'm off it's not by much.
Agreed that Eskendereya would've won the Triple Crown last year- the only 3YO even close to him was Lookin at Lucky, and even with him there was a sizable gap. It isn't apples to oranges comparing the times with both with how the races turned out- Eskendereya could have finished faster if he wanted to, whereas Toby's Corner was all-out in the stretch run. I don't make my own figures (something I've wanted to do, probably will at some point after college), so you would know more than me. But I would be surprised if his figure turned out to be that much worse than Midnight Interlude's, and a 94 for Midnight Interlude makes sense to me.
if you are still in school you are alot further ahead then I was that age. I will be 28 in june but I didn't really get serious about horse racing until I was 22. Midnight interlude got a 96, mo got a 92. I like midnight interlude
Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes this weekend. The Arkansas Derby is definitely the deepest field of the year (assuming there is no incident like there was in the Rebel with Alternation) There are several horses that I could see being a factor in the Kentucky Derby. Can't say that about the Blue Grass at this point, with the exception of Santiva, and that's only if he takes a step up. Anyways, my picks: Arkansas- 1. Sway Away (With the chipped tooth, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for last race. Don't see any reason why he won't succeed around two turns) 2. The Factor 3. Caleb's Posse Blue Grass- 1. Crimson China (His connections seem to be higher on him than they were with Animal Kingdom- they would have preferred to have him over Animal Kingdon in the Spiral if they had the choice, but he didn't have the earnings) 2. Santiva 3. Joes Blazing Aaron
Im starting to think I am going to be betting horses more often. I thought of buying an Ipad and putting the PPs on there and having excel files up the ass to keep track of information.
I'm finally buying into Archarcharch after that performance. While I wasn't a huge fan of his going into the race, I have no idea how he went off at 25-1 when Elite Alex was 6-1 and Brethren was 12-1. Thought Sway Away made a good move around the turn, just couldn't sustain it- might have made his move a bit too early. If he can get into the Derby, I still think he'll put in a good run. Seems like there might not be quite as fast of a pace in the Derby as usual, depending on what a few horses do (particularly The Factor, Comma To The Top, and JP's Gusto). I'd be surprised if 2 of those 3 run. The majority of the Derby Prep winners have been closers (Dialed In, Toby's Corner, Archarcharch, Animal Kingdom, Brilliant Speed all closers), plus you can add Nehro to that group of closers. The only speed horses to win a traditionally key final prep were Pants on Fire and Joe Vann, and Joe Vann isn't going to the Derby. Beyond Pants on Fire, the only speed horses that are likely to run seem to be Shackleford, Soldat, Uncle Mo, and Decisive Moment, and the only horse of that group that I could see putting up really fast fractions would be Shackleford. Looking at the way the race is setting up, I'm starting to like Midnight Interlude more. Still don't think he's a great horse, but he fits in well with this group.
Shackleford is intriguing. He'll probably be the pacesetter and should have something left for the stretch. The early speed is dropping out with The Factor and JP's Gusto opting not to run. There's just not going to be that much of a pace for these closers to run into come post time it doesn't seem.
I actually still think Soldat could be in a good position. I figure that he will be closer to the lead than he was in the Florida Derby, which could benefit him. I'm not buying Shackelford- even if the pace comes up relatively light by Derby standards, with Comma To The Top remaining in the field, he won't get as easy of a trip as he did in the Florida Derby. Still really interested to see how Animal Kingdom handles the dirt. Of the horses that will go off at over 20-1, he intrigues me the most.
1. AAA 2. Midnight Interlude 3. Nehro 4. Toby's Corner the derby winner will be one of the four. No doubt in my mind. lol fuck they are the only horses that can go 10F Actually leaning towards midnight interlude, simply becuase I know just how cranked bob will have him. I don't particularly care for the jockey of AAA too much, and I don't like the odds of him in a 20 horse field. TC on paper doesn't have the numbers but grahm motion will have him ready. outside of that, the rest of the horses this race including mo will be looking for a cab by the time they hit the stretch. usually by the time the derby comes, I have a great idea how i think the race will play out and have a defnativie pick. this is the first year in a long time I'm going to make my wager soley off how odds are post time. If AAA is over 12 to 1 I'm in. If midnight interlude is anywhere near 15-1 it will be hard for me not to wager on him. dialed in will be the betting choice and will be a weak favorite. he just has to beat me I don't wager on horses slowing down going 9F going 10F. Mo will be under 10 to 1. AAA has the highest beyer, a 98 going 9F in the field in a grade 1 race, he will get some money but he doesn't have the it factor. probably about 8-10 to 1. I'm hoping the sa derby is looked at as a week race. rooting for pants on fire (I love rosie), but will probably have money on AAA or midnight interlude. Nero will be a wiseguy horse, won't be any value.
Right now I'm leaning towards Nehro. The other horses I am still considering (either for the win or in exotics) are AAA, Midnight Interlude (though I'm not as sold on him as you), Soldat (particularly if the track is sloppy), Uncle Mo (I know there are questions, but his most impressive start last year was his 3rd start off of a layoff at Churchill, plus I think he is the most talented horse in this field), and Animal Kingdom (if he takes to the dirt).
I have a rule of thumb that i usually follow, I broke i with sway away, but i'm going back to my roots. I don't' bet hard closers. rarley, rarley do they ever actually turn the tables. the race dynamics of a 8F race, 9F race and a 10F race are all different. it's not like he's jsut going to have an extra 1F to run by them, doesn't work like that. so nehro is going to have to beat me. I made an exception with sway away because of the horses he was losing to, I knew they were legit grade 1 horses and he would run h is best at 2 turns.. but still not happening again., plus, the horse that has had the lead at the 16th pole has won something like 46 of the last 48 kentucky derbies. the race is not won in the stretch, it's actually won in the turn. I want a horse that is going to be making a bid for the lead going into the turn. which is why I'm leaning towards midnight interlude.
I don't know what other bets I'm going to make, but I know that I'm going to do a WPS on Animal Kingdom. He worked well on the dirt (on the day that the track was driest) during his workout this weekend, so I feel fairly confident that running on dirt won't be an issue.