Kentucky Derby Top 5

As some of you have prob figured out this is what I do (horse racing). I will do my best to keep this updated every week until the derby. The reason I post this is in case you want to get in on any derby features between now and the first saturday and may, there will be I want to say 2 more derby future pools between now and then, one after the florida derby which is the 1st saturday in april and 1 I want to say in about 3 weeks. Or you can just go through vegas


My top 5 as I see them right now

1. sway away- (3 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds) His comeback race he earned a 100 beyer speed figure. It's one of the top beyers this year, not the top but one of the top, but 2 things separate it from others that have similar numbers. 1. he is the only horse to run over a 100, outside of bind who isn't running in the TC, who clearly wants to run further (the Kentucky derby is the first 10F race for 3YO's, none will have run that far) and 2. he did it off a 7 month layoff. He finished behind a horse (The factor) that is about as fast a horse as you will find anywhere. This horse in 3 starts, has hooked probably 2 of the best 7F horses you will find anywhere in the country regardless of age, and probably should have won both races.


2. Flashpoint- (2 starts, 2 wins) while his pedigree says he doesn't want ground, pomeroy is by boundry who also sired big brown. Plus his bottom side suggests he can get a route of ground, so does his running style. I just like sway away's up side a tad bit more. Though his last race was freakishly good. I would not want any part of this horse right now. The deciding factor between the two, is I don't care for gulfstreams track, I have stats that show that horses that run more than once on there before the derby are done in, and that will be the case for this horse. In the last 10 years, only 6 horses have won a leg of the triple crown will running AT ALL at gulfstream park: Curlin, Jazil, Barnderdini, Big Brown, Barbaro and Da' Tara. Of those, only 2 of them ran more than 1 time, Big Brown and Barbaro. Barbaro had a life threating and eventually fatel injury in the preakness and Big Brown did not finish the belmont. I don't like horses that race at gulfstream, but I like this horse enough to put him this high.


3. uncle mo - Has the talent, is probably the 2nd best 2YO I have ever seen (War pass), but he's not 2 anyomre. his pedigree does not suggest he will take to 10F, nor does his training regime. I dont' like the plan to get him to the derby and at the price, he's going to have to beat me. He very well could, but he's going to have to

4. solddat- the only question I have about him is what happens when another horse heads him up and makes him run faster. I think you can find better value. Can win, under the perfect circumstances, has to get a soft lead (which isn't happening) and he has to be able to shake lose.


5. Breathern - I think he is a cut below the top 3 but unlike most, will go 2 turns, 10F. I think this is the type of horse that will end up winning a race like the jim dandy. This is super savers (last year's winner) 's little brother btw



I am pretty damn sure one of these 5 is going to win unless the owners of bind change their mind and point towards the derby but they won't. Right now you can probably get sway away in the next future pool for about 20 to 1 if not more.

 

I pin my opinion on Flashpoint on my opinion of Travelin man, who I am pretty high on, in fact that race he won will be the most productive prep of all preps this year from a graded stakes winning standpoint, little drama, manicero, travelin man, etc can all run and he decimated that field. nI think travelin man is a real race horse and he just toyed with him. Also, that was only his 2nd start and he runs like a horse, though not bred like one, that looks like he will run.

I love sway away though.

If you put gun to my head and told me to name another 5 it would be Elite Alex(broel has just been giving this horse fuck up after fuck up ride, horse can run), Run flat out, beamer, dailed in and archarcharch. there are a couple of additional horses in santa anita that intrige the hell out of me though I can't remember their names. They should both be in the san felipe


Bowman's Causeway was my actual wager in the FOY fwiw. I never did like THAS and I thought that if they both ran their race, they woudl tire each other out and someone had to pick up the pieces. THAS decided he never wanted to run so the pace duel never came about.

 

2 things about beamer, first, he was 2nd in that allowance race that solddat won. a clear 2nd I might add. Secondly, I can promise you one thing, no trainer gets a horse ready to peak for a certain race like Carl Nafzger. He is the only trainer that I knwo beyond a shadow of a doubt, that his horse will be better in May then he is in Feburary. I remember when I first saw street sense in the TB derby I tossed him, and by the time the derby ran around he just mauled that field, and that was one of hte best fields I've seen in a while. I am banking on him scratching his way into the derby and running a bang up race, maybe not to win.. Carl has had only 3 derby entries, he's batting 66% and 100% in the money.

 

I'm not a fan of the horse. He won the Risen Star but that race is real weak this year, long story short I don't like him or any the horses he has run against. Plus that's a stupid fucking name.

 

ALBERGATTI is the horse from santa anita whose name I cannot remember. He's huge (17 hands) and they are taking their time with him, but the horse can flat out run.

 

the factor and sway away to the rebel :oshit:

 

that zenyatta berni baby will never make it to the track in time. Though i bet it will be a runner that's a good cross. Barnaridini is ap indy line, they take forever to develop and zenyatta did not race utnil 4 weeks before she was 4, 7 months after the derby.

however, both rachel and curlin won the preakness.

 

I never was high on the horse to begin with. and truth be told julien could have stayed closer to the pace.


the thing that gets me about dailed in, is fromI actgually think the horse has talent, I really do. But I think eh's a 1 turn sprinter. All the mineshafts, the good ones (his sire) are 1 turn sprinters. Fly down is basically a 1 turn miler who has enough class to carry it futher at times in high class races, but at 1 turn in a mile you won't find one better right now. Bonnie blue flag, discreetly mine, coal play, cool coal man, all one turn sprinters.


That and I believe that the horse was alot more cranked than zito is letting on. I watch enough races to know a primed horse when I see one, that horse was ready to run, he just flatted out.

what I think will happen, he will run in the florida derby, he will finish 4th or 5th, he will get to the derby, finish 10th or 11th or something like that, might even go to the preakness knowing zito just to go. But when they start running the races like the woody stephens, watch out. Woody stephens, kings bishop, forego, etc those are the types of race I think he will kill in

 

I don't normally even think about bothering with these para mutual derby feature pools, you never get value, and wtf is the field at 2-1.. but, this week I saw sway away is going to be one of the horses in the futures pool, and even better, the rebel is not being ran this week. You might actually mess around and get 30 to 1 on him or something like that, before he runs his last 2 prep races. I am very intrigued.

 

that was the slowest belmont in 36 years. he was 2nd by default. Not one horse has come out of that race and won execpt game on dude.

I said flyo down is BEST going 1 turn 8F, maybe 8.5F. I don't think he's a true sprinter, he's the corliss willmison of horse racing lol, he's a classic tweener. he will never win a grade 1 9F race. But he can run and run well in them.


I also think that jaycito will win, and get crushed this week. Breathern will crush this week, they will get bet down. If I get at least 20 to 1 I am going in.

 

Not really a huge breathern fan, if you follow the midwest circuit, you will see that this year's churchill fall crop has been doing horrible everywhere. lots of money been burned on horses like dancinginherdreams, aide and other less known horses. I really don't think breathern beat much of anything. BUT I will say, no horse is being better prepped for the derby, and that means alot for me. Tampa Bay and calder have the two deepest dirt tracks in the country, it's like running in quick sand damn near. 2 2 turn races over that circuit, he's going to most likely go to the Arkansas derby after that, horse will have NO problem getting 10F whatsoever. and he's super savers little brother which doesn't hurt anything, i'd like to see that personally, back to back brothers winning the derby. I can't say that (can get 10F) for sure about 75% of the horses. you might not think he has uncle mo's talent, but i assure you he will be in every bit as good condition and will want to go 10F more than mo will off that piss poor prep schedule he has.

 

The oaks future pool opened today. I have no extremely strong opinions about the oaks (Expect the girls are better than the boys as a whole this year), but at 50 to 1, I would take a flyer on midley offensive. she had a breathtaking debut a few weeks ago. 50 to 1 i'm might put a few bucks down sunday.

 

Take Pluck in the 4th, Royal Delta in the 10th and Brethern in the 11th. All three should win quite easily. I think pluck is in the 4th, whatever race he is in he's going to win and he's going to do it with ease.

 

the good racing is at tampa today. I'm pretty much a Midwest circuit and southern cal circuit player year round, but I watch and wager on florida races if I see somehting I like. I know at gulfstream race 5 Iwannaiwannaiwanna scratched uot of a race mid week to enter in this spot, she looks dangerous. I'm actually playing against uncle mo in the timely righter, just becuase of principle lol. I will probably lose, but he wont' be 100% cranked i can assure you of that, and rattlesnake bridge, can actually run. Mo will be 1/9 no doubt in my mind, rattlesnake ridge will go of more like 8 or 10 to 1. Pluck scratched out of the palm beach and is running at tampa. In the Gulfstream Handicap take tackleberry at 5 to 1, which you won't get, and run do not walk to the window. why he keeps getting over looked i have no idea but he might be the 2nd best handicap horse in the country. he's beaten all of these before, lol, twice and he's still not the favorite. He beat them once at 9F and again at 7F. now they are going 8F and he's the third choice.

As far as tampa, npw that I have the entries in front of me, take pyrite storm in the first, step sister or ash in the 2nd, either or, probably step sister. pluck is in the 7th, i just don't see him losing. Bell of the hall is hte best horse in the 8th, but this is her first back since last year if i am not mistaken, she will be vuernable and will be overbet. I like demoniation in the 9th. royal delta could very well be the best filly in the country. In the TB derby play a straight Breathern - Beamer Exacta.


but santa anita is my bread and butter track and I am all fucking over always a princess at 3 to 1 in the Santa Martguerita. In the 7th lisa lulu is better than 20 to 1, prob won't win but i take stabs like that a lot, she will run better than 20 to 1 i promise you that. In the San Felipe, albergattis is going to get ran into the ground at an over bet price Everyone is going to say how deep that race is, there are some nice horses there, but it's a 2 horse race between runflatout and jaycito. I like jayctio simply becuase of the pace setup but you aren't going to get a price, baffert has been wolfing about this horse to anyone who will listen, and will be bet down. I honestly have no clue in that race becuase of the pace senerio all of them are fast horses. I am rooting for bench points though I like the trainer.

 

lll that was the most fucking worthless prep race for uncle mo of all time lol. my god 50 seconds half mile? if I owned rattlesnake ridge, i'd be pretty freaking happy that was only his 2nd start and he had NO pace to run into.

 

@ Breathern

 

I can honestly say I was not close in this race lol. I didn't wager, i said above i had no idea but come race time i had narrowed it down to jaycito and the longest shot in the board. I passed the race, when they hit the turn i knew the race was over.

 

I knew something was up when they gunned for the lead. That's not him. wasn't ramon's best day. I don't know what happened. I will be willing to give him another shot though. a loss is not the end of the world. especially at that track.


with that said, i took a future on sway away a@ 18 to 1. nto what i wanted but i did the math, and i see him at the very least, splitting his last 2 preps. if he does that, considering his pedigree, he wont' go off at 10 to 1. 18 to 1 will be at least double what you will get on derby day so that will be value.

I like PP's race but 24 hours after i have calmed down and realized what I realized going into the race. the ield was chalk full of sprinters. that "move" was a combination of him going and everyone else stopping. there isn't one horse in that race outside the top 2 finishers that wants any part of 2 turns, and the race played out exactly like that. I do think he has talent though.

 

Not going, too tired, but sway away will romp today

 

sway away lost a tooth in the race all due to the antics of Alternation, who flipped in the gate and had some other runners getting antsy. same goes for archarcharch, he got kicked pretty good pre race.toss the race.

 

besides the world cup and louisiana derby tomrorow.. pay attention to fair grounds race 4. There is a horse in the race named bind, very well could be the best 3YO in the country. the connections just aren't trying to push him to early but if he were in hte louisiana derby he would prob go off at even money

 

I feel the same about machen. hearing some good vibes about left. If you put a gun to my head I would go with elite alex. that long stretch is right up his alley.

have no clue in the UAE derby, spiral stakes take a long look at decisive moment I like him.

bind ran a 1 on the rags in his debut. that's the lowest rag number for a maiden in 20 years.

 

Sunland Derby, Beer Meister at 15 to 1, he might not win, but i assure you he is one of the only horses in this race that actually wants to run 9F and longer. horse has a stupidly wicked late kick

 

if you are watching dubai like i am, XIN XU LIN in the UAE derby I just realized, won the Carlos Pellegrini in Brazil which is like the american breeders cup classic, you can get him at 5-1. This should be a mis match

 

Bind was defeated. not by much and the winner damn near broke the track record but still, he lost at 1-9

 

pretty much what i was thinking


azeri's daughter runs in the 10th today at oaklawn. she can run.