2012 Triple Crown Trail

I know its really early, but I thought I'd start this thread for those interested at all in the Triple Crown preps. I know it helped a few people last year when it came to the Derby. I'll give my thoughts for each prep race, starting briefly with the G3 Sham tomorrow at Santa Anita and the ungraded Count Fleet at Aqueduct. First though, a look back at the two biggest juvenile races of last year: the Breeders Cup Juvenile and the CashCall Futurity.


Most years, the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby is the champion of the the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This year, the horse that finished, Union Rags (10), is the early favorite, followed by Hansen (5), the gray colt who actually won the race. Union Rags raced wide throughout both turns, and drifted in the stretch (which he has been known to do in past races as well). He may have had a tougher trip, but if he is as good as people thought he was, he passes Hansen. Plus, he looks more developed than all the other horses in this race, so he may not get much better. The near-white Hansen is a fun colt to watch, but I'm not sure if he's capable of getting the classic distance. The horse I like the most out of the race is Creative Cause (7), the third place finisher. His sire, Giant's Causeway, is a good distance sire, and he hasn't ran a bad race yet, and I still think there is upside for him.

Three others to watch are fourth-place finisher Dullahan (2), fifth-place Take Charge Indy (1), and 9th-place Alpha (9). I'm not as high on Dullahan as I am the other two, as Dullahan seems like more of a synthetic horse (though that was said of Animal Kingdom too). I'll need to see more of him. Take Charge Indy is out of a premier sire in A.P. Indy, so he'll almost certainly get the classic distance, but I haven't been overwhelmed by his talent. A.P. Indy's typically take longer to develop, though, so he's an interesting horse to watch during his prep races. Alpha struggled in the Juvenile, but he was acting up in the gate, so you can put a line through this performance IMO. He is by Bernardini, one of the best distance sires in the game right now, and they also usually take some time to develop, which is why his first two performances (his maiden win and second behind Union Rags in the Champagne) impressed me. This colt will only get better with distance, and I think he is going to be a contender once the Kentucky Derby comes along.


The winner, Liaison (9) ran a nice professional race, though I have trouble buying him at this time. He's by Indian Charlie, and typically Indian Charlie's are brilliant but have trouble making it beyond 1 1/16 miles. See Uncle Mo last year, and Liaison is nowhere near as talented as Uncle Mo. The late running Rousing Sermon (8) is an interesting horse, with Awesome Again his dam's sire. He should be more likely to get the distance. The question is talent with him, but going forward I would prefer him to Liaison. Coming out of the race, the two horses that intrigue me the most are a pair of Empire Maker horses: Sky Kingdom (6) and Empire Way (4), who finished 4th and 5th respectively. Empire Way is a full brother to soon to be 3YO champion filly Royal Delta, so he may be more hyped, but they are very similar horses- they both run similarly to Royal Delta as well, with a nice closing kick. They pulled even with the winner in the gallop out, and they just keep improving with each race. Of the two, I would give the slight edge to Sky Kingdom, but both are horses to keep an eye on.

As for the two races this weekend, the Sham marks the 2012 debut and 2 turn debut of Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint champion Secret Circle. He was the most consistently fast 2YO, but he's never been beyond 6 furlongs. He's by Eddington, so distance shouldn't be a problem from a bloodlines perspective, and he probably is the best horse in the race, but it's hard to bet him at 4/5, or whatever he'll go off at. I like Hierro in this race. He's well bred (by 2007 Derby runner-up Hard Spun), and is improving with each race. Despite only running in maiden races, he's also faced tougher horses than Secret Circle, and has run at 7 furlongs in all his races, so the change in distance isn't so great.

Sham Selections:
1. Hierro (3)
2. Secret Circle (4)
3. Longview Drive (5)

Briefly on the ungraded Count Fleet, I like the aforementioned Alpha, though he'll go off near even money, so it isn't worth betting that race. I'm hard pressed to find someone that will beat him if he runs even close to his race.

Count Fleet Selections:
1. Alpha (5)
2. Speightscity (6)
3. How Do I Win (2)

Neither race are great betting races, but will be good tests to see if Secret Circle can go two turns and if Alpha can put his Juvenile behind him.

 

From last weekend, there were three races that look to have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail. First race I'll look at was the Count Fleet (1 mile, 70 yards), in which Alpha (5) won handily over Stephanoatsee (4).



The race itself came back slow (received a Beyer Speed Figure of 85), but I think Alpha's race was better than that figure appears. He had issues in the gate (he's going to have additional schooling to try and settle those), and he stumbled coming out of the gate. But the pace in front of him was slow- he's typically nowhere near as close as he was in this race. The slow pace impacted his BSF, and I think he can improve off of this race. He'll most likely be back in New York's next prep, the Withers, along with Stephanoatsee, who may have been even more impacted by the slow early pace than Alpha was. Stephanoatsee is a half-brother to last year's Preakness winner Shackleford and trained by Graham Motion, the trainer of last year's Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Both are horses to keep an eye on- they will both improve with longer distances, but I would still put Alpha firmly ahead of him, as he beat him head-to-head, and has a higher upside long term. Don't think anyone else from the race will have an impact on the rest of the trail.

Second race: the Sham (1 mile), won by Out of Bounds (video in link): http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-out-bounds-upsets-secret-circle-sham

A nice performance by Out of Bounds (2) from first year sire Discreet Cat, as he gave favorite Secret Circle (4) his first career loss. It wasn't a bad performance by the Secret Circle- his BSF remained in the mid-90's like his previous races, but just wasn't able to hold off Out of Bounds. Out of Bounds, who received a 99 BSF, reminds me a bit of Mucho Macho Man from last year- they have similar running styles (stalker) and are both big horses. He probably ran the best race of the day from the three races I'm covering, and he could still improve. I'd like to see it at least one more time from him, though, before I buy into him. With Secret Circle, I think this is about as far as he wants to go. He'll be one of the best sprinter-milers in this age group, but I don't think he'll get the classic distance. He could be sort of like this year's version of The Factor, though The Factor has more talent. Disappointed by Hierro, who finished last. Thought he moved too early around the turn, and that finished him off.

Third race: Gulfstream Allowance (Race 7 on Saturday, 1 mile) (video in link): http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-discreet-dancer-dazzles-again-second-career-start

Outside of the two stakes races, this race had the buzz horse coming out of the weekend in Discreet Dancer (9), another son of Discreet Cat. Discreet Dancer appears to be very talented, but he beat nobody in this race. He's supposed to destroy a field like this. He's a horse that will most likely have to beat me next time he runs, particularly if he doesn't run at Gulfstream. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a history of horses who run huge at Gulfstream but just aren't the same anywhere else. He reminds me a bit of his half-brother Travelin Man last year, who ran a 105 Beyer in an allowance race (albeit at a shorter distance). Discreet Dancer appears to be able to go a little further than Travelin Man, but he'll have to prove to me he can do it against a better field, and chances are he will be an overlay when he runs next out.

Not much on the Stakes docket this coming weekend. I'll preview any important races later in the week, with the most significant race likely being next Monday's Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. Will wait to see the fields before making any judgements though.

 

Haven't looked at the California Derby, so won't talk about that, but the Pasco Stakes at Tampa has a couple interesting horses. I'm looking to beat the favorite For Oby, and the two horses I like are Adirondack King (1) and Seven Kind (4). Adirondack King has won three straight and has a very solid pedigree (Lawyer Ron his sire, the Alabama-winning Jostle his dam). He is taking a small step up in class (best horse he's beaten is Il Villano who finished 3rd in the Count Fleet), and the rail isn't ideal, but there isn't a ton of speed, so that shouldn't be as big of an effect. Seven Kind is making his first stakes start, but honestly is still making a drop in class- he was 3rd at a Gulfstream Allowance that featured two horses (Algorithms and Consortium) that are much better than this field. He's one of the few horses with any early speed, so it's possible he could get a fairly good trip, and he's 8-1 on the morning line.

Pasco selections:
1. Adirondack King (1)
2. Seven Kind (4)
3. Prospective (8)

I'll look at the Smarty Jones (Monday at Oaklawn) sometime tomorrow or early Monday.

 

Smarty Jones Stakes (Oaklawn): There are two horses that are headlining this field- the Grade II winning filly On Fire Baby (10) and the D. Wayne Lukas trained Optimizer (6). I am strongly against On Fire Baby in this race. She won by 6 lengths in her win in the Golden Rod, but she was the only front running horse in the race, and got away with a half mile of over 50 seconds, which is extremely slow. She won't have things her way tomorrow, and I just don't think she will be good enough. I do like Optimizer in this race. He ran a solid third in the Grade I Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, though he finished 8th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He's had strong works at Oaklawn though, and I just think he's a step above the other horses in this field. Behind Optimizer, I like a pair coming out of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park: Reckless Jerry (12) and No Spin (4). Reckless Jerry finished ahead of No Spin in that race, though I think No Spin had the tougher trip. I put Reckless Jerry over No Spin simply for the fact that he will most likely go off at higher odds.

Smarty Jones Selections:
1. Optimizer (6), 5-2
2. Reckless Jerry (12), 10-1
3. No Spin (4), 6-1

 

Review of last weekend's races, starting with the 1 1/16 mile California Derby at Golden Gate.


Race was won by favored Russian Greek (6). He got a pretty good trip, as the 7 horse was essentially a rabbit for him. It looked nice visually, but it came back slow (74 BSF), and he didn't beat anyone. Of the three stakes races, it was the least impressive to me, and I don't really expect to see any of these horses being a serious contender. Having said that, if Russian Greek can improve, he should be a horse that can get the distance being from Giant's Causeway. I'm just skeptical that he can make that jump.

Second stake of the weekend was the 7 furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa. Click here for video

This race didn't come back much faster than the California Derby (got a 75 BSF), but I think this race is better than it looked. I tend to think the runner-up, Wildcat's Creek (10), is more than likely a sprinter, but the winner Prospective (8) and the third-place finisher, Adirondack King (1) have two-turn pedigrees. Prospective was wide through much of the race and finished nicely. Prospective won the G-III Grey Cup in Canada as a two year old, but failed to show up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. The question with him coming into the race wasn't talent, but surface. Surface didn't bother him today, so it makes it easier to put a line through his Juvenile. Adirondack King was in tight quarters in the early part of the stretch, and was not able to open it up until it was too late. Even with a perfect trip, though, he wasn't beating Prospective. Both of these horses should improve as they go into 2-turn races. I would expect them to point toward the Tampa Bay Derby.

Final stake was the 1 mile Smarty Jones Stakes (2 turns). Click here for video

The two horse, Junebugred, won the race, but the most impressive runner was the 12, Reckless Jerry. Starting from the outside, he was unable to get inside, and ran 5-wide around both turns. Junebugred, meanwhile, was well positioned and had the much better trip coming through on the rail. Despite that, Junebugred only held him off by a neck. Junebugred received a 89 BSF, so by that standard, it was the fastest race. They should both be pointed toward the Southwest Stakes next month. Among other horses, On Fire Baby ran a decent third and showed she could rate, though I have trouble seeing her being on the path to the Derby- more likely she'll be pointed to the Kentucky Oaks. Optimizer never made a move. He'll more than likely get one more chance to stay on the trail, but he is an ordinary horse.

Two other races of note: first was an 1 1/16 mile allowance (Race 2) on Thursday at Santa Anita, in which Sky Kingdom defeated three other okay horses and wasn't asked for anything down the stretch (in fact, once he took the lead, he was already being geared-down, which is why the last 16th of a mile was a slow seven seconds. He'll be back in a graded stakes race next time out, Baffert has many options with this horse. Most likely he'll stay in southern California, but he's recently sent a lot of horses to Oaklawn as well (Lookin' At Lucky, The Factor). Wherever he goes, he's a major threat, and he's the best 3YO to have raced in the past week.

The other race was a 6 furlong OC allowance at the Fair Grounds (Friday, Race 8). Two horses ran very well, with Mark Valenski defeating Radiant Talent by a length. Will be interested in seeing how they stretch out, as both came into this race with nice maiden wins. It's most likely too soon to wheel back into this weekend G-III Lecomte at the Fair Grounds, but they'll both look for a stakes race next time out- probably the Risen Star if they want to stay local, or possibly the Southwest, which would make more sense to me because it would be less of a stretch out.

As mentioned before, the big race this weekend is the LeComte, which I'll look at more in depth on Friday.

 

G-III LeComte Stakes, Saturday Race 11, Fair Grounds

First real interesting betting race of the Trail- 13 horses (11 betting interests) of relatively equal horses. Could go in many different directions in this race. The most talented horse in the race is probably the morning line favorite, Shared Property (11), who won the Grade-III Arlington-Washington Futurity. However, he's coming off of the longest layoff in the field, draws the outside post, and his trainer has said that this is a 'stepping-stone race'. I'll try and beat him. Another horse I'll try to beat is Exfactor (5). He won the Grade-III Bashford Manor at Churchill, but has never been beyond 6 furlongs, and suffered a minor hind-leg injury during the winter. There's a good chance he may scratch. Mr. Bowling (4) has been working strong and won by seven lengths in the Dover Stakes in his only two-turn start. However, he didn't beat anyone that day while having a perfect trip, and the one time he went against quality horses in the Grade-III Iroquois, he finished third as a strong favorite. I'll go against him as well. Hammers Terror (8) will also take quite a bit of money, but his races have been getting slower and slower as he's been going longer. The Zayat Stables entry of Dan and Sheila (2) and Z Dager (2b) is intriguing, but an entry of one horse trained by Pletcher and another trained by Asmussen is going to take a ton of money, and these horses don't appear to be either trainers best. Z Dager is the more interesting of the two, and they both are contenders for exotics, but I'd prefer better value.

The horse I'm picking on top is Capetown Devil (10). He's the only horse in this field to win at this distance at the Fair Grounds, and he should be able to get a decent trip. He's 6-1 on the morning line, but I feel will likely get lost a bit in the wagering- it wouldn't surprise me to see him drift up closer to 10-1. Beneath him I'll use Seven Lively Sins (6) and Ted's Folly (3). Seven Lively Sins finished second in the aforementioned Iroquois ahead of Mr. Bowling, and had a troubled trip in finishing fourth in the Grade-III Delta Jackpot, and is a horse that is still improving. But this distance is most likely as far as he wants to go. Ted's Folly has won 6 consecutive races, including the Springboard Mile (2nd place finisher was Reckless Jerry from the Smarty Jones Stakes). He's a gritty horse, but he doesn't seem like a horse with a ton of upside. Still, at 10-1, he fits well with this field, and while I don't see him extending his win streak, he can absolutely get into the exotics.

LeComte Stakes Selections:
1. Capetown Devil (10), 6-1
2. Seven Lively Sins (6), 9-2
3. Ted's Folly (3), 10-1

My bet (I will track my bets throughout the year):
$2 WPS 10
$1 Exacta Box 6,10
$1 Exacta 10-3
$1 Exacta 6-3
Total amount: $10

 

Review of last weekend's races:

G-III Lecomte Stakes, 1 mile and 70 yards, Fair Grounds


The Lecomte was won by Larry Jones' Mr. Bowling (4). To be honest, I was really underwhelmed with this race. Earlier in the card, the ungraded Silverbulletday was run at the same distance by 3 year old fillies, and the winner Believe You Can ran over a second faster than Mr. Bowling. Another race of the same distance, run by a group of $40,000 maidens (solid level but not great), ran .07 seconds faster as well (won by the 31-1 Atlantic Titan), and the ungraded 1 1/16 mile Louisiana Handicap won by Thiskyhasnolimit was only .18 seconds slower (this race was 40 yards longer than the Lecomte). By all accounts, this race was slow. Mr. Bowling received a mediocre 79 BSF (for comparison, Believe You Can got a 91). On top of that, Mr. Bowling got a good trip. He's a great bet against in his next race, most likely the G-II Risen Star. The second and third place finishers had more difficult trips. Z Dager (2B) didn't have a terrible trip, but he didn't have a ton of clear running room at the top of the stretch either. However, this was only momentary, and he had all the opportunities to pass Mr. Bowling, but just couldn't do it. Shared Property (11) is the horse I would take coming out of this race. It was off of a long layoff, and he was wide throughout the whole race. Despite that, he ran an okay race. He'll need to improve, but there is no reason he shouldn't.

San Pedro Stakes, 6 1/2 furlongs, Santa Anita: Click here for video

While the San Pedro doesn't have quite the cache of the Lecomte, this was the better race this weekend, with good performances by the winner Midnight Transfer (1) and Got Even (6). This race received a 93 Beyer. Got Even seems like nothing more than a solid sprinter/miler, but Midnight Transfer may have some potential. He's by Hard Spun, who had success both at short distances (won 7 furlong King's Bishop) and at the classic distances (second in 2007 Derby and Breeder's Cup Classic). This is his first group of 3-year-olds, so it's unclear whether or not his horses will tend to be sprinters or distance horses. He looks like a horse that can go longer. He seems to relish the track at Santa Anita, and he'll remain there, racing next in the San Felipe Stakes in early March.

The most impressive race run to me was Race 6 Saturday at Santa Anita, a 1 1/16 maiden race won by Castaway (3) by 2 1/4 lengths over the closing Holy Candy (4). Castaway is by Street Sense, the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby who defeated Hard Spun. (As an aside, I did find interesting that Hard Spun's son was a closer while Street Sense's son had early speed, total opposites from their sires). Much like Hard Spun, this is Street Sense's first group of 3 year olds, but I would think that Street Sense's colts would be more likely to relish distance than Hard Spun's. Holy Candy also ran a good race- I would expect both of these horses to run in stakes races in the future, though Holy Candy will most likely return to maiden's in his next start, where he should be a clear favorite.

One last bit of news: Stephanoatsee, the 2nd place finisher of the Count Fleet, is off the Derby trail due to an injury.

This weekend is the G-III Holy Bull, which marks the debut of Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner Hansen, as well as the stakes debut of Algorithms and Consortium, two highly regarded runners.

 

G-III Holy Bull Stakes, 1 mile, Gulfstream Park, Sunday Race 10:

The Holy Bull only drew a field of 6, but it's got star power at the top in Hansen (4), the 2YO Horse of the Year. He'll be a solid favorite, with odds around even, in this race, and its hard to argue against it. A one turn mile at a track that often favors speed is right up Hansen's alley, and he has been training very well. There are a couple reasons that cause me to be a bit hesitant with him in this spot, though. First of all, despite the small field, there is a lot of early speed- besides Hansen, Silver Max (1) and My Adonis (4) should have a lot of early speed as well. I expect Hansen to make the front, but it isn't inconceivable that one of the other two makes the front, and Hansen has never trailed in a race, so who knows how he'll respond. This leads to my second concern: because he won the BC Juvenile and has enough earnings for the Derby, its possible that his connections will try something new with him this race- they may see if he can rate, or if he is a need the lead type of horse. Chances are good that Hansen wins this race, but because of those two reasons (in addition to the price he'll be), he isn't a good bet, and I will try to beat him with Algorithms (6). Algorithms beat Consortium (2) in December at 6 1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream, but both horses put in a good performance. They will clearly be the 2nd and 3rd choices in this field, and they are the only horses that I think are capable of beating Hansen (assuming Hansen runs a solid race). Both horses are sired by Bernardini, and both should like longer distances. That said, I think Algorithms has more talent of the two: Consortium is a good horse, but Algorithms can be a contending 3YO, and I just don't see it with Consortium at this point. If I had to pick a horse between the other three to perhaps pull a minor upset to get into the top 3, it would be Fort Loudon (5), because he will get a better trip than the two front running horses Silver Max and My Adonis, though I think those two have more natural ability.

Holy Bull Selections:
1. Algorithms (6)
2. Hansen (4)
3. Consortium (2)

Bet:
$4 Win 6

Not much in terms of stakes besides that (there is a minor one at Laurel, but don't think that will be much of an effect), but there is an Allowance OC race at Gulfstream on Sunday (Race 7, 1 1/16 miles) that may as well be a stakes race, as there are a couple different horses that are already on the Derby Trail- most notably these three: El Padrino (2), Take Charge Indy (3), and Casual Trick (7). Of those three, I'm most skeptical of El Padrino: his best performance was run on a sloppy track. I think Take Charge Indy is the best horse in the race, but after his 5th place finish in the BC Juvenile, he went almost two months without any works. He's worked four times in January, though, including a 5 furlong bullet work on the 24th. I would give him a tepid edge over the likely favorite Casual Trick, who has the benefit of a race over the track and has thrown together a couple of good works over the past month. But I think he was working even better (and at longer distances) leading up to his last race (a good second in the Gulfstream Park Derby to Revaron), so I wonder if he'll have a slight regression. I also wonder a bit why Nick Zito is running him here, as opposed to the Holy Bull. Unlike the other two, he has no graded stake money accumulated. The longer shot I like is Big Screen (4). He's taking a step up in class, but he's running races that are just a slight notch below the top three. He's ran well at this track, and he is working better than he ever has in the leadup to this race. I think he's primed for an improvement.

Gulfstream Sunday Race 9 Selections:
1. Big Screen (4)
2. Take Charge Indy (3)
3. Casual Trick (7)

Bet:
$2 WPS 4

 

I went to a rainy Gulfstream on Sunday and watched the two races I previewed above, and here are my takeaways from those races.

Race 7 Allowance, 1 1/16 miles. Video here

I mentioned that the reason I was most skeptical of El Padrino (2) because his best race was run on a sloppy track. With the off and on rain that was at the track the entire day, the track was rated 'good' but was rated sloppy by the next race on the dirt, so for all intents and purposes, I'd consider it a sloppy track. Only two horses really took to the track, and that was El Padrino and Take Charge Indy (3). El Padrino won by 2 lengths over Take Charge Indy, and Take Charge Indy was nearly 14 lengths in front of the third place horse, Argentine Tango (9). El Padrino got the first triple digit Beyer by a 3 year old male horse in this race, earning a 100 figure (in addition, Take Charge Indy got a 96). This performance for El Padrino was much better than his other win in the slop, but I would like to see him do it on a fast, dry track before I buy into him. Take Charge Indy I remain higher on. Unlike El Padrino, Take Charge Indy has run quality races on fast tracks. The favored Casual Trick (7) did not show up at all (finishing 8th, with the 9th place finisher eased on the turn), and my pick Big Screen (4) was a non-threatening 4th.

G-III Holy Bull, 1 mile


Hansen (4) was the buzz horse coming into the race, but Algorithms (6) blew by him on the turn and won by 5 lengths. Hansen had a strange trip, he stumbled out of the break, and from there, he wasn't able to relax. The first quarter wasn't too fast, but he ran the second quarter in 22 seconds flat despite not being pressed by either Silver Max (1) or My Adonis (3) (more on My Adonis later). He was dead in the water from there. Finishing second isn't a bad performance with that in mind. But even with a perfect trip, I don't think he beats Algorithms the way he was running. He ran by Hansen like it was nothing. It's fair to question whether the wet track aided him, but while this is his best performance yet (earned a 98 Beyer, his best coming in I believe was an 88), every race he's run has been impressive. Unlike El Padrino, I don't think this is a case of him improving with a wet track.

The other interesting trip in this race was run by the third place finisher, My Adonis. He'd been a speed horse his past couple races, including being on the pace on an incredibly fast Delta Downs Jackpot, but he was taken well off the pace in this race (at one point on the backstretch, he was 13 lengths behind the horse ahead of him), but he closed strongly to finish third. I'm unsure what to make of him, but a horse that can be adaptable in where he is placed is certainly a good trait to have. The biggest disappointment was definitely Consortium (2), who finished last and it wasn't even a close last. It may just be a matter of him not liking the sloppy track, but whatever the reason, he didn't show up.

Good weekend of races coming up, with three graded stakes in the Robert B. Lewis (Santa Anita), Withers (Aqueduct), and Sam F. Davis (Tampa).

 

Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Santa Anita, Saturday Race 6, 1 1/16 miles

Probably the best field top to bottom thus far- it returns 4 of the top 5 horses from December's Cash Call Futurity, and sprinkles in some interesting horses from outside of that race. To be honest, while they will take a fair share of money, the top two new horses- Isn't He Clever (1), and Chips All In (8) don't do anything for me. Isn't He Clever has run some good races, but against far weaker competition and all in sprints. As for Chips All In, he may be more likely to get the distance, but he's run all but one of his races on either turf or synthetic, and his one on dirt was his poorest race. The favorites will be the 1-2 finishers from the Cash Call, Liaison (2) and Rousing Sermon (6). Both are logical contenders, but they will also be the two shortest prices in the race, and I don't see that much of a difference between them and a couple other horses in the race. My top pick is Sky Kingdom (5), who I've talked about a bit throughout this thread. He won super easily his last time out (much more impressive than it looks on paper), and he's been training great leading up to this race. A long shot I like in the exotics is Groovin' Solo (3), who just broke his maiden on his first dirt start, and has also been training lights out. Also have to mention Empire Way (7), he needs to step forward, but I expect him to as the year goes on. Think he needs some more seasoning, however.

Robert B. Lewis Selections:
1. Sky Kingdom (5)
2. Groovin' Solo (3)
3. Rousing Sermon (6)

Bets:
$2 Win 5
$1 Ex Box 3,5

Grade III Withers, Aqueduct, Saturday Race 9, 1 1/16 miles

This doesn't appear to be that different from the Count Fleet Stakes, which Alpha (7) handled easily. Once again, I think he handles this group of horses. He's going to be a very short price, most likely less than even odds. Best chance of making money would be with the exotics. There are three horses that I think could fill out an exacta or a trifecta: Hakama (1), How Do I Win (5), and Tiger Walk (6). Hakama will most likely be the shortest price of the three, and he's also the one I like the least of the three. His best races are when he gets the lead, and I see How Do I Win getting to the front. Tiger Walk is the wildcard in the race. He ran on dirt for the first time last time out, and it was clearly his best performance. It was against much weaker competition, however. Still if a horse beats Alpha, I think he is the one.

Withers Selections:
1. Alpha (7)
2. Tiger Walk (6)
3. How Do I Win (5)

Bets:
$1 Tri: 7/1,5,6/1,5,6

Grade III Sam F. Davis, Tampa Bay, Saturday Race 11, 1 1/6 miles

This is one of those where I don't particularly like any horses in the field. Reveron (10) is the tepid favorite off of his Gulfstream Park Derby win, but that doesn't look as impressive after the horse he beat, Casual Trick, didn't show up in the allowance won last Sunday by El Padrino. Ecabroni (4) won broke his maiden last time out, but a) I don't think it was that impressive, b) I think he prefers sprinting, and c) he'll be bet down with Pletcher as his trainer. State of Play (1) interests me the most of the top three choices. Even though he hasn't raced on dirt, he had a strong workout last week on the dirt. He's coming off of a layoff, though, and while I think he probably has a bright future, I think he needs a race to get underneath him. My choice is Prospective (11), winner of the Pasco Stakes here a couple weeks back. He's shown that he's run well on this track, and the additional 1.5 furlongs should only help him. He could use a pace duel between Revaron and Ecabroni, but I think that is a distinct possibility. For a longshot, Battle Hardened (3) really intrigues me. He has yet to finish better than second, but he's run with solid company (finishing second his last two tries), and has a great pedigree. He's bred to run all day long. At a price, he's worth throwing into exotics, and without any real standouts, even a win wouldn't shock me.

Sam F. Davis selections:
1. Prospective (11)
2. Battle Hardened (3)
3. State of Play (1)

Bets:
$2 Win 11
$2 Show 3

 

Saturday's races:

Withers:

This race appeared to be a carbon copy of the Count Fleet, as Alpha (7) won easily by over 3 lengths over longshot Speightscity (2). Most important thing from the race was that Alpha did not have any gate issues, so that may be behind him. He does need to prove it against better horses, though. Speightscity ran a nice race (and he shouldn't have gone off at 44-1, he's a horse I've sort of liked in the past), but he isn't a Derby caliber horse. He went up against one in the Champagne, and he lost handily to Union Rags. Hell, Stephanoatsee, who he beat last time out, was better than these horses, but even he would have been a fringe Derby horse (and won't be one at all with his injury). The race came back with a 90 Beyer, which is an improvement, but he needs to run faster than this to be a top-line Derby contender. But he is running better and better with each race, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him continue this development. He'll run back next in either the Gotham or the Wood, where hopefully he can get a real test. I would be surprised if he wasn't the favorite next time out, but depending on who shows up, his next race may be a good time to take a shot against him.

Robert B. Lewis: Video here

This was an interesting race, in more ways than one. It was won by the 43-1 longest shot on the board, I'll Have Another (4), who won by 2 3/4 lengths over Empire Way (7). First of all, even though I thought it was a tough spot for him, and probably should have been the longest shot on the board, I'll Have Another shouldn't have been 43-1. He struggled mightily in the Hopeful, which appears to be a bad race judging by how the field has done coming out of it, but it was on a sloppy track- perhaps he just didn't like the track that day. He also finished 2nd behind Creative Cause in the Grade II Best Pal Futurity last year at Del Mar in what was a good performance. In the Lewis, he was clearly the best horse- but at the same time, the front was the place to be at Santa Anita, he benefited from a perfect trip.. He got a 96 Beyer for this win, and he'll take a small break until returning in the Santa Anita Derby. As for Empire Way, it was definitely his best performance as well. He was the only horse to come from behind to really make any sort of move.

What gives me pause about those two performances, though, is that nobody else really showed up. Groovin' Solo (3) would have ran a well-beaten third, but he fouled Liaison (2) (sending Liaison's jockey flying) and was DQ'd. While Liaison got interfered with, it didn't really cost him anything. Liaison was already backing up- I still think he would have finished 7th. The other favorites, Sky Kingdom (5) and Rousing Sermon (6), didn't threaten at all coming from the rear. All three were big disappointments. I would be more likely to forgive Sky Kingdom and Rousing Sermon than Liaison, simply because Liaison was the one horse closest to the front, and that was where you wanted to be.

Sam F. Davis: Video Here

It's rare when a horse breaks his maiden in a graded stakes race, but Battle Hardened (3) did it. To be honest, I think that says more about the field than it does him: when a maiden goes off at 9/2 in any graded race, you know there are significant flaws with the others. Not to take away too much from Battle Hardened, who won by 1 1/4 lengths over Prospective (11), but the race came back fairly slow (81 Beyer). That said, he's a horse that will improve the longer the race is. I just don't know if he has the talent to be a true threat in Triple Crown races. I need to see him win a race against a horse better than Prospective, who isn't bad, he's a solid stakes horse, he's probably not TC-worthy though. At this point, he's sort of like a slower version of Alpha to me. If he comes back in the Tampa Bay Derby, he'll likely have to go against a horse like Take Charge Indy, and I think he's just better than Battle Hardened at this point in time.

You can make a case that the upcoming race weekend is the weakest during the whole TC chase: only graded race is the 7 furlong Grade II Hutcheson at Gulfstream, which will be headlined by Ever So Lucky.

 

For those who are interested, the first Future Wager Pool for the Kentucky Derby opens at noon ET on Friday and is open until 6 PM Sunday. Here are the horses and their morning line odds:

# Horse CD M/L
1. Algorithms 8-1
2. Alpha 20-1
3. Battle Hardened 30-1
4. Creative Cause 20-1
5. Discreet Dancer 15-1
6. Dullahan 20-1
7. El Padrino 20-1
8. Empire Way 50-1
9. Ever So Lucky 20-1
10. Fed Biz 20-1
11. Gemologist 20-1
12. Hansen 12-1
13. I’ll Have Another 20-1
14. Junebugred 50-1
15. Liaison 20-1
16. Longview Drive 50-1
17. Midnight Transfer 50-1
18. Mr. Bowling 50-1
19. Out of Bounds 20-1
20. Rousing Sermon 30-1
21. Sabercat 30-1
22. Take Charge Indy 30-1
23. Union Rags 10-1
24. Mutuel field (all others) 9-5

The only prices that seems even remotely playable would be the 20-1 on Creative Cause and maybe the 50-1 on Empire Way. It's a much bigger question mark on whether Empire Way even makes the field than Creative Cause, who essentially already has enough earnings to get into the field, and I'd have to imagine that Creative Cause would be at the most 10-1 if not single digits if he runs even the same as he did last year. Creative Cause's future odds will probably end up in the 15-1 range by Sunday, but even that is bettable. 20-1 or higher on him would be enticing.

 

Here are the PP's for the horses in the Derby Futures: http://static.drf.com/PPs/2012/01/Derby12future.pdf

 

I ended up putting $5 on Creative Cause at 17-1 and $2 on Empire Way at 33-1. Was hoping the price I would get on Empire Way would be higher, since he still has work to do just to get into the Derby, but I think most likely he will get in there, and his odds will likely be lower that that. Feel pretty content about the 17-1 on Creative Cause. Now to the races.

G-II Hutcheson Stakes, Gulfstream Park, 7 furlongs


The only graded stakes race for 3 YO's this weekend was the Hutcheson, and it became irrelevant to the Derby picture when Ever So Lucky was scratched. The winner, Thunder Moccasin (3), is a serious sprint horse, but that's all he is, and his connections know this, and will keep him in races like the Swale. His goal long term is probably the Kings Bishop and then the BC Sprint, but you won't see him in the Triple Crown races, and nobody else is any good in this race.

Despite the lack of stakes this weekend, there were three performances that caught my eye- one allowance and two maidens.

$58,000 Allowance OC, Santa Anita, Race 2, Thursday Feb 9, 1 mile. Video here

The horse who emerged with the most buzz from the past week was Bob Baffert's Fed Biz (5), who beat a pretty good horse in Consulado (1) by almost 6 lengths, earning a 97 Beyer in the process. It was only a 5 horse field, and the other three were not in the same class as the first two, but Consulado set a fast pace which Fed Biz tracked right off of, and those two ran away from the field turning into the stretch, and Fed Biz ran away from Consulado in the stretch. Consulado appears to be more of a sprinter, but Fed Biz has the pedigree to suggest he can go longer distances. He still ran a bit immaturely in the stretch, but his talent is undeniable.

$56,000 Maiden Sp Wt, Santa Anita, Race 3, Saturday Feb 11, 1 mile


I actually think the performance by Fed Biz's stablemate, Bodemeister (8), was the most impressive of the weekend, and not just because his Beyer figure was slightly higher (he received a 99). He was on the lead the entire race, and he continued to get faster with each quarter of a mile. To be fair, the fractions for this race early on were over a second slower through the first half mile of the race compared to the Fed Biz race, so Bodemeister had a little bit of an easier trip. But while there wasn't any horse as proven as Consulado in this race, there were two other horses, Welter Weight (3) and Stirred Up (7) who were very highly thought of, they just hadn't gotten a chance to show it on the track. The problem with Bodemeister is two fold. First, I think he is going to have to learn to rate, because the early splits just weren't as fast as some of the other speed horses on the west coast. I think he's fully capable of doing it, but still have to wait and see. Secondly, he might be best off running in an allowance his next race instead of hopping right into graded stakes competition, much like Fed Biz. That would leave him with very limited opportunities to pick up the graded stakes earnings needed to make the Derby. It will be interesting to see what Baffert does with him, but I like his future, probably the most of the Baffert horses.

$65,000 Maiden Sp Wt, Aqueduct, Race 5, Saturday Feb 11, 1 mile 70 yards


This race came back slow (Beyer of 69), but the win by Street Life (8) was visually impressive. He was well out of it early and didn't exactly get the fastest pace to run into, but he blew by all the horses in the stretch, swerving between horses like his dad Street Sense in the Derby. It's a bit hard to tell how good he can be, just because he'll be even better if he gets a fast pace to run at. If he tries to run in the Gotham next time out (most likely it will be an allowance, but the Gotham wouldn't be out of the question), he might be a sneaky play, particularly since Hansen will be in the Gotham, ensuring a fast pace.

 

There are three races this weekend with graded stakes money available. One of them, the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, is on Monday and has not been drawn yet. Because so many horses are pointing towards running in the Southwest, it is very possible that they may run two heats of the Southwest Stakes, which I have not seen before. I'll cover that race later, once it all shakes out.

G-III El Camino Real Derby, Golden Gate, Saturday Race 8, 1 1/8 mile on synthetic

The El Camino Real looks like a relatively even group of horses, which is not a good thing- I don't think there are any true Derby contenders in this field, but whoever wins will be put in good position to be a longshot in the Derby. My top pick in the race is Handsome Mike (7). On paper, he is simply faster than the rest of the field, with Beyers in the 80's the past four races. Of these four races, the most useful race in comparison to the El Camino Real would be his race in the Grade-I Cash Call Futurity, because that was also on synthetic and was run at 1 1/16 miles. In that race, he was on the lead setting a relatively fast pace, and weakened to finish 7th, though that sounds worse than it actually is because Liaison, who won the race, only beat him by less than three lengths. If he runs that race again, someone would need to take a step up to beat him. In addition, he is dropping back in class with this race, while every other horse is jumping up in class with the possibly exceptions of Lucky Chappy (6) and Daddy Nose Best (1), who both ran in the BC Juvenile Turf. The horse most likely to do jump up and challenge Handsome Mike would be Russian Greek (4), who won the California Derby at Golden Gate last time out. He's a one-run closer, who has won the past couple races despite not getting fast paces. The pace should be a little livelier this race, which should help him. Same holds true for Lucky Chappy in that he is a one-run closer who should get a decent pace to run into. He hasn't run on anything except turf, though.

El Camino Real Picks:
1. Handsome Mike (7)
2. Russian Greek (4)
3. Lucky Chappy (6)

Bet: $2 WPS 7

G-II San Vicente Stakes, Santa Anita, Sunday Race 7, 7 furlongs

The San Vicente marks the 2012 debut of Creative Cause (2). Creative Cause has the pedigree to go long, but speed figure wise, his best race was his debut in a sprint, so this race won't be too short for him. At this point, he's my top Derby choice, and this will be a good way for him to start his year- going shorter, then getting two more races in before the Derby (possibly the San Felipe and the Santa Anita). His trainer, Mike Harrington, has two quality 3YO's in him and Empire Way, so one of those two will likely ship elsewhere to keep them separated as long as possible. Anyway, Creative Cause is my top pick in the race. I'll pick American Act (5) to finish second. He broke his maiden last time out, and that race looks even more impressive after seeing how the second place finisher, Bodemeister, wowed in his very next start. Even though he has been disappointing his past couple of starts, I'll pick Drill (3) to finish third, thinking that the shorter distance will benefit him.

San Vicente Picks:

1. Creative Cause (2)
2. American Act (5)
3. Drill (3)

Bet: $2 EX 2-5

 

Grade-III Southwest Stakes (Division 1), Oaklawn Park, Monday Race 8, 1 mile

This is the first time since the early 90’s that a Triple Crown Prep has been split into two divisions. The first division is heavy on horses coming out of the Smarty Jones Stakes, including four of the top five finishers: Junebugred (6) finished first, Reckless Jerry (8) second, Jake Mo (3) fourth, and Laurie’s Rocket (10) was fifth. I think the top two are definite contenders, but there are some new shooters with talent as well. Longview Drive (5) is coming off of two straight 3rd place finishes in Grade-III races, including a field best 97 Beyer in the Sham. For comparison, Junebugred and Reckless Jerry each got a 93 Beyer in the Smarty Jones. Also coming from out west is Baffert’s Castaway (11). He looks intriguing, but his best race was on a wet track. He’s a threat, but I feel he may be a bit overbet just because its Baffert, and while he’s had success at Oaklawn, that has been with horses like Lookin’ At Lucky and The Factor, and Castaway is not quite that caliber. All that said, pedigree wise, he probably has the most potential of any horse in this field at the classic distance.

My pick in the race is Reckless Jerry. He had a much tougher trip than Junebugred in the Smarty Jones, racing 5-wide around the turn, yet just got nipped by a nose.

Southwest Stakes (Division 1) Selections:
1. Reckless Jerry (8)
2. Longview Drive (5)
3. Junebugred (6)

Bet:
$2 Win 8

Grade-III Southwest Stakes (Division 2), Oaklawn Park, Monday Race 9, 1 mile

To me, this is the more interesting of the two races. I expect there to be a faster pace in this race, with horses like Secret Circle (9), Cyber Secret (7), and Apprehender (4). I would expect those three to be the three favorites, most likely in that order. They all ran races that received Beyer anywhere between 96 and 98 last time out, and there is a sizable gap to the rest of the horses. I am strongly against Apprehender, as his race was on a muddy track and only at 5 ½ furlongs. Cyber Secret’s last race was nice, but he got a relatively easy trip on the lead, which will not happen in this race. I think he has a better chance than Apprehender, but Secret Circle is the best of the three. He reminds me a little bit of The Factor. I don’t think he’s quite as talented as him, but he’s certainly closer to that caliber than Castaway is in the previous race. Although he finished 2nd in the Sham, he ran a very nice race, and just got beat by a horse in Out of Bounds who had one of the best performance of the year to this date. He’s the horse to beat, and I will be surprised if he isn’t clear favorite.

With all that said, I am going to try and beat him with Adirondack King (2). Although it didn’t come up to be a fast race on paper, I thought he ran decently in the Pasco. The hot pace should set up nicely for him, and he’s a horse that should improve going two turns. He’s also been working out strongly in the lead up to the race. I have trouble seeing any other horse winning, though I guess I could see Big Wednesday (10) clunking in and make the exotics.

Southwest Stakes (Division 1) Selections:
1. Adirondack King (2)
2. Secret Circle (9)
3. Cyber Secret (7)

Bets:
$2 WPS: 2
$1 ExBox: 2,9

 

El Camino Real Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Golden Gate (Tapeta surface)


Probably the most entertaining race of the weekend, with Daddy Nose Best (1) nosing out Lucky Chappy (6). Distance should not be a problem for these two horses, but surface is. Both horses have turf backgrounds and pedigrees, and the Tapeta surface is more conducive to turf runners than dirt. People may point out that Animal Kingdom was the same way, but there are a couple differences. First of all, even more than these two horses (particularly Daddy Nose Best), Animal Kingdom was bred to run all day long. While distance likely shouldn't be a huge hangup for either horse, it remains more of a question than it was for Animal Kingdom. Second, the synthetic course at Turfway (where Animal Kingdom won the Spiral last year), while it does benefit turf horses, the Tapeta surface is notorious for being even more friendly to turf horses.

These two horses were the only horses to run at all in the race. Of the two, I like Lucky Chappy more, and he had a much tougher race setup than Daddy Nose Best, but I don't see either as a Derby contender. I don't think Daddy Nose Best is that good, and as for Lucky Chappy, I think if he took to dirt, I could consider him, but the problem with him is that his next start will likely be in Dubai for the UAE Derby, also on the Tapeta surface. He could win that race and have the earnings for the Derby, but horses traveling from Dubai to the US rarely run well their first start back, which would be the Derby in Lucky Chappy's case.

San Vicente, 7 furlongs, Santa Anita Video here

The horse who won, Drill (3), will remain in sprints, which is where he should be in what was an ok performance. I also see the second place horse, American Act (5), as more of a sprint horse, but he ran well in his first start against winners. He may be on the trail to run in the Santa Anita Derby, but I feel like that may be a bit too far for him. Creative Cause (2) was a little disappointing in his first start of the year, but this was just a prep for what would be his one goal this year: the Kentucky Derby. I don't think he was given the best ride possible by his jockey- wish he was a little closer to the pace than he actually was, since the pace was not fast for a sprint at Santa Anita. I still think he'll be fine. Whether he remains in California or ships out remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be too alarmed by his performance. It wasn't like it was a much slower race by him- his Beyer was around 90.

Southwest Stakes, 1 mile, Oaklawn First Division Second Division

Bob Baffert swept the two Southwest divisions with Castaway (11) in the first race and Secret Circle (9) in the second. Secret Circle was a second faster than Castaway, but going forward, I like Castaway more. Secret Circle is the most talented horse to run at Oaklawn, but I don't see him getting the classic distance, while I think Castaway can. I do feel being forward positioned was a benefit at Oaklawn that day- there weren't too many horses that came from well off the pace or many horses prompting the pace that really fell back, which may have benefited Castaway in the first race, and Secret Circle and Scatman (3) in the second race. This leads me to believe that two races that were better than they looked were run by second place finisher Jake Mo (3) in the first race and Adirondack King (2) in the second. Neither one of them finished all that close to the other three horses mentioned above, but they did well just to get as close as they did. Those two (along with Castaway), despite finishing with a Beyer much lower than Secret Circle and Scatman (they got Beyer's in the low 100's, while Castaway got a 92 for his win), would be the horses to watch coming out of those two, though Castaway does seem to be the best moving forward.

A pair of quality races this weekend, with the Risen Star (featuring El Padrino among others) and the much anticipated Fountain of Youth (featuring Union Rags, Algorithms, and Discreet Dancer)

 

G-II Risen Star Stakes, Fair Grounds, Saturday Race 11, 1 1/16 miles

The heavy favorite is going to be Todd Pletcher's El Padrino (7) off of the heels of an impressive allowance win in the slop over Take Charge Indy at Gulfstream a few weeks back. Many handicappers believe he is Pletcher's best 3YO, and even the best 3YO in the country. He does have great breeding (Pulpit out of a Giant's Causeway mare), and on speed figures, he towers over the field. He's 2-1 on the morning line, but I'd be surprised if he didn't go off at even odds. I'm taking a shot against him, though, for a couple reasons. First of all, his two wins (and his two best performances) have been in the slop, which he is well-bred for. Second, Pletcher has a history of top flight horses at Gulfstream just not being the same horse outside of South Florida. One horse who intrigues me is Mark Valeski (1A), who had a very nice win last time out in an allowance. Unfortunately, he's coupled with Mr. Bowling (1), who won the Lecomte last time out, and because of that, his price is going to be much lower than I would like, and that is only enhanced by Mr. Bowling being a horse I am firmly against. If he was on his own, Mark Valeski would probably be 10-1 or so, but because of Mr. Bowling, the entry will probably be the second choice at something like 7-2. The two other horses I am interested in are the second and third place finishers of the Lecomte, Z Dager (5) and Shared Property (8). They finished close to Mr. Bowling despite having tougher trips (particularly Shared Property). There were a lot of things going against Shared Property last time out- first time off of a layoff, outside post, went 6 wide around the far turn, and he ran well in spite of all that. I think he'll improve this time out (though he didn't get a great post position again), and I'm hoping he'll get a little lost in the betting behind El Padrino, the Mr. Bowling/Mark Valeski entry, and Z Dager. I'll pick him on top.

Risen Star selections:
1. Shared Property (8)
2. El Padrino (7)
3. Mark Valeski (1A)

Bets:
$2 WPS- 8

Fountain of Youth Stakes, Gulfstream Park, Sunday Race 11, 1 1/16th mile

Its really hard to get creative in this race. There are 3 horses that are contenders-Algorithms (2), Union Rags (7), and Discreet Dancer (5), and everyone else is a couple steps behind them, and will need the other three to not show up in order to have any sort of chance. I said after Discreet Dancer's last race that he would be a bet against his next race, but the more I look at it, the more I am leaning his way, and there are couple different reasons why I am picking him on top. The biggest reason I am picking him is this race is much more important to him than either Union Rags or Algorithms, who both have enough graded earnings that they don't need to win this race- its a means to an end. Discreet Dancer, on the other hand, has no graded earnings. Second, he is carrying 116 pounds, 6 less compared to Union Rags and 4 less than Algorithms. The past couple of Fountain of Youth's, it has been horses carrying less weight beating more established, higher weight horses. Third, he's going to be on the front, and I don't see a ton of speed challenging him. He'll be on the lead turning for home, and with the earlier finish line for 1 1/16th races, the shorter stretch run should help him, especially on a track that is kind to speed. I don't know how far he wants to go, but I think he can get this distance. As for the other two, I'll pick Algorithms second because he's had good recent form, while Union Rags might need a race, especially because he doesn't need to win this race. This race is just a stepping stone for him.

Fountain of Youth Stakes:
1. Discreet Dancer (5)
2. Algorithms (2)
3. Union Rags (7)

Bet:
$4 Win- 5

 

Risen Star, Fair Grounds, 1 1/16 miles

I'm finally starting to buy into El Padrino (7). He nosed out Mark Valeski (1A), and they were over 5 lengths in front of the third place finishing Z Dager (5). He showed that he could run a winning race on a fast, dry track, and seeing a Pletcher horse run this well outside of South Florida is normally a good sign for their future. Like I mentioned before the race, he has a great pedigree to get the classic distance. I also like how he didn't back down- he showed some grit nosing out the second place horse, and that is a quality that is certainly a positive in a race as chaotic as the Derby. Assuming he stays in Louisiana, he'll be the favorite in the Louisiana Derby. Mark Valeski ran very well in defeat. I'm not as sold on him getting a mile and a quarter, but I think the 1 1/8 should be within his reach. Those two horses have good futures. As for the rest of the field, this race exposed the horses that ran in the LeComte. Z Dager ran a non-threatening third, and Shared Property (8) and Mr. Bowling (1) did not show up at all. I never thought Mr. Bowling was that good, but I still think Shared Property has some ability. He just needs a cut back in distance.

Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16

First of all, Algorithms was scratched the day of the race due to a popped splint, and will be taken off the Derby Trail. Disappointing to lose one of the early Derby favorites, but it happens every year- much of the time coming from the Pletcher barn. As for the race, the connections of Union Rags (7) have to be very pleased with how his first race went. He beat News Pending (6) by 4 lengths, and did it easily under a hand ride. Also, he ran straight in the stretch- something he has not done in past races (may have cost him in the BC Juvenile). I'm not quite as convinced he'll get the classic distance as I am with El Padrino, but he might be talented enough that it won't matter. If you liked him before the race, you have to love him now. It wasn't the fastest race in the world (he got a 95 Beyer), but the race was just a starting point for him. He'll have to be the favorite in the Florida Derby. The most surprising thing from the race was that Union Rags didn't go off the favorite- Discreet Dancer (5) did. He was definitely the biggest disappointment from the race, and I think he showed that he is a sprinter. News Pending ran okay in finishing second. He's still trying to figure out what to do (he's ran several different styles in his races), and he received an odd ride in the Fountain of Youth, getting off to a slow start, then moving around the initial turn from the back to join Discreet Dancer. It wasn't the best of rides, and I think he is capable of improving.

This weekend is the Grade 3 Gotham (1 1/16 at Aqueduct), where Hansen (12) will be the heavy favorite. It is very competitive behind him, but I think with a race under his belt, that he will run better than he did in the Holy Bull. I also wonder if going two turns, despite his running style, might help him relax a little bit. His best two races were his two stakes wins, which were two turn races run at this distance. I'm picking him on top, but there are some interesting horses you can use if you want to go against him. My Adonis (1) ran third behind Algorithms and Hansen in the Holy Bull in his best race. To be honest, I don't see too much different between him and the other horses in this race outside of Hansen, and he'll be a much lower price. I'd look in other directions. Dan and Sheila (6) will get a lot of action with Velasquez riding for Pletcher, but he ran 4th in the LeComte, which appears to be a weak race. My Adonis and Dan and Sheila are the two other horses (outside of Hansen) that are below 10-1 on the morning line, and I'm against both of them (especially Dan and Sheila). The two horses that interest me the most are Side Road (10) and Raconteur (8). Both have great distance pedigrees (Side Road by Street Cry out of a Pulpit mare, Raconteur by A.P. Indy out of a Storm Cat mare), and have ran well on the inner track at Aqueduct. Both are also showing some good recent works. They are on the same level to me, and both should be good prices. I expect Raconteur to drift below 10-1, but Side Road could get lost in the wagering.

Gotham Picks:
1. Hansen (12)
2. Side Road (10)
3. Raconteur (8)

Bets:
$2 WPS- 10
$2 WPS- 8
$1 Tri Box- 8,10,12

 

Another horse is off the Derby trail: Sham winner Out of Bounds.

Gotham Stakes, Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles.

Hansen (12) proved he was more than a one-dimensional speed horse in winning by 3 lengths over My Adonis (1). He showed that it was possible for him to be stalking the pace and still win, which he needs to do if he wants to win the Derby. His chances of getting 1 1/4 miles is better this way than the way he's run his other races. Visually it was impressive, speed figure wise it was a good, if not great effort (95 Beyer). The only other horse that did any running was My Adonis, but I still don't think he's going to be a real contender. He's not in a terrible position to make the Derby, though- he's still finishing in the top three of a couple graded stakes races, and at this point, the Wood is not shaping up to have as deep of a field as the Florida, Santa Anita, and Arkansas Derbies will have, particularly with Alpha pointing to the Florida Derby. The rest of the field will be composed of Gotham also-rans (they aren't good), The Lumber Guy (faster than the other Gotham horses, but would take a huge step up in class and distance), and Our Entourage (better on turf). If he finishes second to Hansen again in that race, he'll most likely make it in.

Big weekend for three year olds with 4 graded stakes races. In order of importance, there is the San Felipe (1 1/16 miles, Saturday, Santa Anita), the Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 miles, Saturday, Tampa), the Palm Beach (1 1/8 on turf, Sunday, Gulfstream), and the Swale (7 furlongs, Saturday, Gulfstream). I won't be able to post my picks (PP's aren't available yet, and I won't have internet access the rest of the week), but I'll review them next week.

 

San Felipe Stakes, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles

Thought this would be a much more important race for Creative Cause (7) as opposed to his San Vicente. I didn't think he needed to win, but he needed to show some signs that he had improved from his juvenile campaign, and he did that in his win over Bodemeister (2), which was his best performance to date. He didn't receive a perfect trip (raced wide around the turn), but otherwise he was in good stalking position throughout the race, while Bodemeister did more dirty work. Both ran outstanding races (Creative Cause got a 102 Beyer, Bodemeister a 101), and they'll be back in the Santa Anita Derby. I do have concerns for each horse, though: there is beginning to be a trend of Creative Cause running erratically in the stretch. He was damn near staring at the grandstands until his final burst. How will he react to all the screaming people on Kentucky Derby day? His issue, though, is more minor than Bodemeister's, because he still needs to prove to me that he isn't a need the lead type. Sure he passed American Act (3), but that was only because American Act couldn't get the distance and faded to finish 7th. He's as talented a 3YO as there is out there, but its a running style that isn't conducive to Derby success. Hansen proved that he was adaptable in the Gotham, I think Bodemeister needs to do the same in his next race. Even with that said, both are top 5 Derby contenders, and the best the West has to offer. Can't say the same for any other horse in this race. Midnight Transfer (4) ran a solid race, but I think he is more of a sprinter/miler type. The San Felipe didn't flatter Robert B. Lewis winner I'll Have Another, as none of the four horses from that race did any sort of running- was most disappointed in Empire Way (10), who finished 9th. Of those four, Liaison (6) might be the only horse to continue on the Derby Trail, and I've never been a fan of his.

Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay, 1 1/16 miles

Prospective (1) got it done with blinkers on and with a new running style- stalking as opposed to closing. He made a nice, steady move starting on the backstretch and taking the lead at the top of the stretch. My problem with him is that he just isn't fast. His 88 Beyer (his career best) falls well short of the top contenders, and he has ran more races than most of the other 3YO's, so I think its less likely for him to improve compared to the others. To be fair, though, at least he showed up, which is more than you can say about Spring Hill Farm (9) and Battle Hardened (7), who just didn't make any moves at all. The only other horse who did any sort of running was the runner-up, Golden Ticket (2). He is more lightly raced, so I think he is more likely to improve than Prospective at this point, but he needs to improve a lot. When its all said and done, I think Prospective will be the only horse in this race to run in a Triple Crown race, and he's just feels like the type of horse that will run 12th in the Derby.

Palm Beach Stakes, Gulfstream, 1 1/8 miles (turf)

Howe Great (1) won the Palm Beach, a race that was the 3YO debut of Dullahan (3), who ran second. I don't think Howe Great is anything but a turf horse, but Graham Motion and Team Valor are going to attempt to get a second consecutive Derby win with a 'turf' horse. Howe Great isn't near as good as Animal Kingdom was though, and he's been getting easy setups to win his races. With a more fair pace setup, Dullahan is the better horse-and I'm not even someone who likes Dullahan. I'm also not convinced yet that Dullahan isn't better on turf/synthetic, but at least he's shown he can run on dirt, with his 4th place finish in the BC Juvenile. He also has more room to improve than Howe Great, who has ran three races already this year. With that said, Dullahan is getting hailed as a top 10 Derby horse, and I'm just not convinced he is that good. I would put him on the same level as Prospective, and Prospective would go off at nearly twice the price if the two both ran in the Derby.

Won't get too in depth with the Swale- it was dominated by a horse (Trinniberg) who is a sprinter, and the only horse getting any Triple Crown talk (Ever So Lucky) finished a well-beaten third. Trinniberg is a nice horse, but he'll most likely be pointed to races like the King's Bishop this summer.

 

Rebel Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Oaklawn Park, Saturday Race 10

With the exception of Castaway, all of the top horses that ran in the two divisions of the Southwest return in the Rebel, headlined by Secret Circle (8). I'm still skeptical on how far he wants to go, but I think that 1 1/16 miles is within his grasp, and he is the most talented horse in this race. The only horse to run a race as fast as Secret Circle has ran is Scatman (3), but I have even more distance questions with him, and he's only done it once. He's a good horse, but I think he regresses a bit this race. The horse I like the most, outside of Secret Circle, of the returning horses is Cyber Secret (4). He ran poorly in the Southwest, but I expect a much better effort from him this time out. He didn't get the best trip or ride from the jockey last time out. He's training much better coming into this race. I don't think he's good enough to beat Secret Circle unless Secret Circle really doesn't want to run any longer than a mile, but he's better than the other Southwest horses. Of the newcomers, Sabercat (7), who won the Delta Jackpot last year (which is enough to qualify him for the Derby), but I'm against him in this spot. He got a pace meltdown in the Delta Jackpot to set him up perfectly, and the race didn't turn out to be particularly fast. On top of that, he hasn't ran since then. There is a good chance that he won't be cranked up to win this one- its more to get him in race shape and set him up for the Derby. Of the new horses, Najjaar (11) interests me the most. It's a step up in class for him, and he'll likely need a fast pace, but he's won two consecutive races at this distance at Oaklawn, and he's wheeling back fairly quickly from his last race two weeks ago, so his form should hold up nicely.

Rebel selections:
1. Secret Circle (8)
2. Cyber Secret (4)
3. Najjaar (11)

 

Rebel Stakes, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/16 miles


Secret Circle (8) wins by 3/4 of a length over a fast-closing Optimizer (5) in a race that I just wasn't that impressed by. One positive from the race is that Secret Circle showed he can sit a couple lengths off of the lead and still be effective, but preliminarily, this was his slowest race (early Beyer is a 92). He didn't appear to be moving that fast down the stretch, it was just that horses like third-place finishing Scatman (3) were fading quicker than he was. I think this is the limit for how long Secret Circle wants to run. As for Optimizer, he looked impressive running down the stretch, but I wonder how much of that was him, and how much of that was the other horses running slow. Based on his past races, I would think the latter. He doesn't have the distance question marks that Secret Circle has, but I don't think he is that talented, and on top of that, I think his best races will end up being on synthetic/turf races. As for Sabercat (7), he just never did any running whatsoever. I didn't expect him to run that well, but he was worse than I expected him to be. Bottom line, I don't see a Derby contender in this bunch.

$80,000 Allowance, Gulfstream Park, 1 mile


If you had a gun to your head and had to pick one horse that would win the Derby from this weekend's races, it would be Gemologist (1) from this race. He won the Kentucky Jockey Cup last year, but it didn't come up that fast, and no horses out of that race had done much coming out of the race. He needed to show that he improved from 2 to 3, and he did, beating the Grade 1 Hopeful winning Currency Swap (3) by 7 lengths, earning a Beyer in the mid-90's. To be fair, he set an easy pace, it was only a 5 horse field, the first two horses outclassed the other 3, and Currency Swap has had many issues keeping him away from the track since his Hopeful win. Gemologist did what he had to do, and he can improve off of this effort. It's unknown where he will be sent for his final Derby prep, but at this point, he looks like a top-10 Derby contender. As for Currency Swap, despite his 2YO earnings, he is most likely will not be on the Triple Crown trail- he just had too much hinder his development over the winter. He's a horse I've liked since his debut race, and I hope he can stay healthy this year.

 

Graded earnings through the Rebel. Keep in mind that some of these horses (Wrote, Trinniberg, Currency Swap, plus some others past the top 20) are almost certainly not being pointed to the Kentucky Derby. And the first Secret Circle earnings (at rank=6) is correct, ignore the second one at 15. I would say that any horse with at least $200,000 should be safe to make the Derby at this point.

Spoiler

RankHorseTrainerEarnings
1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,400,000
2 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,070,000
3 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $686,000
4 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $601,429
5 Wrote (IRE) Aidan O'Brien $556,630
6 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $470,000
7 Dullahan Dale Romans $405,000
8 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000
9 Prospective Mark Casse $365,452
10 On Fire Baby (f) Gary Hartlage $286,729
11 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $200,000
12 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $181,375
13 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $180,000
14 Trinniberg* Bisnath Parboo $174,500
15 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $170,000
15 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $170,000
17 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill $151,000
18 Castaway Bob Baffert $150,000
18 Currency Swap Teresa Pompay $150,000
20 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $145,558
21 My Adonis Kelly Breen $130,000
22 Battle Hardened Eddie Kenneally $127,000
23 Brother Francis James Cassidy $120,000
24 Mr. Bowling Larry Jones $115,848
25 Lucky Chappy (IRE) Graham Motion $115,000
26 Jack's In The Deck Robin Graham $105,000
27 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $103,855
28 Longview Drive Jerry Hollendorfer $102,834
29 Scatman Michael Lauer $100,000
30 Fly Lexis Fly Arturo Morales $99,481
31 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $98,400
32 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien $94,030
33 State of Play Graham Motion $90,000
33 Howe Great Graham Motion $90,000
35 Zip Top (IRE) James Bolger $85,244
36 Empire Way Mike Harrington $85,000
36 Jake Mo* Allen Milligan $85,000
38 News Pending Dale Romans $80,000
39 Shared Property Thomas Amoss $79,700
40 Motor City Ian Wilkes $78,383
41 Golden Ticket* Kenneth McPeek $70,000
42 Z Dager Steve Asmussen $65,000
43 Power World Bill Mott $61,354
44 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $60,000
44 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $60,000
45 Midnight Transfer Carla Gaines $36,000

 

The stretch of final preps begin this weekend, with the Spiral Stakes and the Sunland Derby.

Spiral Stakes, 1 1/8 (synthetic), Turfway Park, Saturday Race 10

There appears to be three horses that will go off at relatively short prices: Heavy Breathing (3), Went the Day Well (4), and Handsome Mike (12). Heavy Breathing has won his two career starts by open lengths, and he has won at 1 1/8 miles, but he has never raced on synthetic, and his races were not all that fast racing against inferior competition. Went the Day Well will be heavily bet for two reasons: he some ability, and he has the same connections as last year's Spiral winner, Animal Kingdom. He also has not ran on synthetic yet, though he has run well on turf and dirt, so surface isn't as big of a concern for him. Still, I prefer others. Handsome Mike, to me, is the best horse in this race, and I would expect him to be the third choice behind the other two. He's ran well on synthetic in his past races, even though I didn't love his third in the El Camino Real last time out. The one issue with him is he has the outside post, which could be problematic for him, particularly because he'll be near the front of the group. Despite that, he's one of my top choices. The one other horse that I like, and will likely get a good price, is Mr. Prankster (10). He was terrible in his last race, but prior to that, he won two lesser stakes on this track, including a 7 1/2 length win in the 1 mile WEBN Stakes. The faster the pace, the more he'll benefit, and he got no pace whatsoever last time out (though I don't think that was the issue with him, he just didn't do any running last time). The pace should be a bit quicker this time out, If he were going into this race off of that race in the WEBN, his odds would be up there with the top three betting choices, but his clunker last time off will scare some people off. At morning line odds of 12-1, I'm willing to give him one more chance.

Spiral selections:
1. Mr. Prankster (10)
2. Handsome Mike (12)
3. Went the Day Well (4)

Sunland Derby, 1 1/8, Sunland Park, Sunday Race 12

Sunland drew perhaps its best field for its biggest race, led by Baffert's Castaway (1), who won the first heat of the Southwest. I do think he is the best 3YO racing this weekend, but the presence of Ender Knievel (2) right to his outside won't do him any favors. Those two, pressed along by the local horse Isn't He Clever (4), should ensure a fairly quick pace, which will benefit both Daddy Nose Best (6), who won the El Camino Real last time out, and Stirred Up (3), a maiden winner for Baffert. Despite his win in the El Camino Real, I'm still not sure how good I think this horse is, and I think he is definitely better on turf and synthetic. That said, I still think he fits in okay with these. Stirred Up, on the other hand, is stepping up in class, but he's run against quality horses in his maiden races, such as Bodemeister, and didn't have too bad a performance. I also think he has a really nice pedigree for the distance, and he'll be a decent price with Castaway, Daddy Nose Best, Ender Knievel, and Isn't He Clever in the race. The wild card in this race is Ender Knievel. He could be as talented as any horse in this race, but he's taking a step up in class and is going much further than he has ever gone before- he'll have to beat me. I think it will end up being a Baffert exacta.

Sunland selections:
1. Stirred Up (3)
2. Castaway (1)
3. Isn't He Clever (4)

 

Here are my top ten Derby contenders, heading into the last set of prep races, with their trainer and current jockey in parenthesis:

1. Creative Cause (Mike Harrington, Joel Rosario)
2. El Padrino (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castallano)
3. Union Rags (Michael Matz, Julien Leparoux)
4. Hansen (Mike Maker, Ramon Dominguez)
5. Bodemeister (Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano)
6. Alpha (Kiaran McLaughlin, Ramon Dominguez*)
7. Gemologist (Todd Pletcher, Javier Castallano*)
8. Take Charge Indy (Patrick Byrne, Calvin Borel)
9. Castaway (Bob Baffert, Rafael Bejarano*)
10. Dullahan (Dale Romans, Kent Desormeaux)

*- Horses that will need to find a new jockey, as that jockey will most likely be on a higher rated horse. At this point, would think John Velasquez on Gemologist and Martin Garcia on Castaway would make sense- not sure about Alpha.

Others considered: Mark Valeski, Prospective, I'll Have Another

I think you have a better group of horses this year than there was last year. In my view, the top seven horses have separated themselves from the rest of the pack, with the top four even further ahead of the other three. One thing that sticks out to me is how almost all of these horses had established themselves as Derby contenders during their juvenile campaign. The only horses of those 13 that didn't do anything as a 2YO were Bodemeister, Castaway, and Mark Valeski. Creative Cause, Union Rags, Hansen, Gemologist, Dullahan, and Prospective all won graded stakes as a two year old, and Alpha, Take Charge Indy, and I'll Have Another finished second in a juvenile graded stakes.The other thing that sticks out is that the top horses all have good pedigrees that lend credence to them being able to get the classic distance. I feel more confident in some horses than others (like Creative Cause, for example), but there isn't any horse in the top 10 where I can definitively say they want no part of the Derby distance.

We will see how the final preps will adjust the top ten, but it would take a big effort for a horse outside the top seven to break into that group. Castaway will get the first chance to do that at Sunland this Sunday. Even if he wins impressively, I'd have trouble raising him any higher than 6th above Alpha- I think Bodemeister is Baffert's best horse, though Castaway is a nice second horse to have.

 

Spiral Stakes, Turfway Park, 1 1/8 miles

Team Valor wins their 2nd consecutive Spiral with Went the Day Well (4), who defeated Holiday Promise (5) by 3 1/2 lengths. His race will draw a ton of comparisons to Animal Kingdom, but I don't think he was as impressive as Animal Kingdom was when he won last year's Spiral. Not to say that he didn't run a good race- he did, and got a career best BSF of 92, but he got a good trip, and I don't think any other horse really finished all that strongly. It's telling to me that his connections still want to run him one more time, most likely in the Lexington, because they don't think he is fully mature yet. If that is true, there is still some upside with this horse, but I think he needs to improve again if he wants to contend in the Derby. Holiday Promise ran okay to finish 2nd, but I think that was more him just passing tired horses. I wouldn't completely dismiss Went the Day Well in the Derby, but he would have to improve in his next start, and even then I'd remain a bit skeptical, because his dirt form, while not bad, was a step below this race.

Sunland Derby, Sunland Park, 1 1/8 miles

Within the first 1/4 mile of the race, you knew that both Castaway (1) and Ender Knievel (2) had no chance. They went head-to-head and just ran off on the field, and were dead tired by the final turn. The race setup benefited the winner Daddy Nose Best (6) immensely- I don't think he could have asked for a better trip. He did show that he could run a fast race on the dirt- and it did come up to be a quick race, with him receiving a BSF of 100. But I don't think he ran as well as that number would indicate- the two pacesetters almost ensured a fast final time. Still, he's won two graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles on two different surfaces, and that has to count for something. But the horse that I actually thought ran the best race was Isn't He Clever(4), who finished 3/4 of a length behind Daddy Nose Best despite making a move too early on the backstretch. His connections are starting to get Derby fever, and may race him one more time to ensure he has enough earnings, as his $188,000 would put him on the borderline. I'm not sure if he is a Derby horse, though, I don't see him as a 1 1/4 horse, though had he received a better trip, I could have been swayed from that. Those two were well clear of the rest of the field.

Final thoughts from the races: I thought the better race was the Sunland, and the top two finishers ran better than Went the Day Well. I would put Daddy Nose Best highest on a list of Kentucky Derby horses (probably around the same level as where I have Prospective) because I don't think Isn't He Clever wants to go that far, and I think Went the Day Well needs to develop more.

Big weekend on tap, with the first Grade 1 race of the year- the Florida Derby- as well as the Louisiana Derby and the UAE Derby. Florida Derby matches up 3 of my top 8 (El Padrino, Union Rags, and Take Charge Indy), while the Louisiana Derby is led by Mark Valeski and impressive maiden winner Cigar Street, and the UAE Derby has Lucky Chappy representing the United States in Dubai.

 

Florida Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Gulfstream Park, Saturday Race 11

This is most likely the most anticipated prep of the season, with Union Rags (6) meeting El Padrino (8) in a battle that very likely could decide who the favorite will be in the Kentucky Derby. Union Rags probably has more pure talent than El Padrino does, but I'm also not 100% convinced that Union Rags is a mile and a quarter horse, while El Padrino certainly feels like he is one. Also, as good as Union Rags looks when he runs, he really hasn't run that fast race yet in his career- El Padrino's two starts this year are faster on the Beyer scale than Union Rags has ever run, but at the same time, the difference in the figures is only a couple of points, and I think he is more likely to improve this race than El Padrino is. It's splitting hairs between the two- I'll favor El Padrino- but I'd be surprised if one of these two didn't end up winning the race. Having said that, there are some interesting horses behind them. Take Charge Indy (3) is a horse I've always liked, and he ran well finishing second behind El Padrino last time out in an allowance race. He'll love the added difference. I do find it a bit disconcerting that he scratched out of the Tampa Bay Derby, where I believe he would have won, and there hasn't been a lot of positive talk surrounding this horse recently. I still think he's the third best horse in the race, but there are a lot of questions surrounding him right now. News Pending (2) ran well to finish second in the Fountain of Youth last time, particularly because he didn't get a very good ride, but I want him to prove it to me again- I don't think he beat too much outside of a tiring Discreet Dancer. A horse that may be interesting in the exotics is Reveron (9). He is consistent, he's never finished out of the top 3 (granted, against weaker competition), and his best race was run at Gulfstream Park. There also isn't a ton of early speed in this race. I don't think he can beat the top two (the only horse that I think potentially could is Take Charge Indy), but I could see him getting third if Take Charge Indy doesn't run his best, and I prefer him to the more hyped News Pending.

Florida Derby selections:
1. El Padrino (8)
2. Union Rags (6)
3. Take Charge Indy (3)

Louisiana Derby, 1 1/8 miles, Fair Grounds, Sunday Race 10

A big field of 14 (13 betting interests) entered the Louisiana Derby, with the favorite being the entry of Mr. Bowling (1) and Mark Valeski (1A). I've never liked Mr. Bowling, but Mark Valeski is a deserving favorite for this race, which is filled with question marks. There are two things that concern me. First of all, I don't know if he really wants the added distance. I think 1 1/8 miles should be fine, but I'm still a bit skeptical. What worries me more is that there will be a swifter pace in this race than the Risen Star. I'll try to beat him, knowing that he is the likely winner of the race. If a star horse emerges out of this race, it will be Cigar Street (6). He has great breeding for the distance (sired by Street Sense and is a half brother to the great Cigar), and was outstanding in his maiden race. He got an easy trip that day setting the pace which he won't get this time around, and he'll go off at short odds for a horse who's only won once in his career, but he is the most talented horse in this race. He reminds me a bit of Bodemeister out West, only he doesn't have to face a horse like Creative Cause in this race. I'll pick him on top. I just don't like too many horses in this race outside of those two. Z Dager (10) has finished in the top 3 in the other key Louisiana preps, but I still don't think he's all that good. Rousing Sermon (11) comes in from California, but he ran better as a two year old, and has not been a factor at all in the California races. Windsurfer (3) will take money because it's Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez, but if it was any other trainer-jockey combo, it'd be at least a 20-1 horse. If I want to fool around in exotics, I would take horses coming from the back of the pack, and the two I would use are Shared Property (7), who finally gets a good post position, and Finnegan's Wake (4), who finished a well beaten third in the Gotham. I don't think Shared Property really wants to go this far, but I think he is the third best horse in the race, and if he remains near his 10-1 morning line, he would be playable.

Louisiana Derby selections:
1. Cigar Street (6)
2. Mark Valeski (1A)
3. Shared Property (7)

UAE Derby, 1 3/16 miles (Tapeta), Meydan, Saturday Race 4

Will touch on this briefly, with 6 horses nominated to the Triple Crown, though only one of them I think even has a chance at running in those races, and that is Lucky Chappy (1). He's proven on the surface, just losing by a nose in the El Camino Real to Daddy Nose Best. He stands a good chance here. The other horses nominated (in order of odds favoritism) are Wrote (13), Daddy Long Legs (7), Genten (5), Yang Tse Kiang (8), and Red Duke (12). However, the horse that interests me the most is a horse from Argentina, Balada Sale (4). Southern Hemisphere horses traditionally do real well in this race because they are 4 YO's horses, while the Northern Hemisphere horses are 3, so Balada Sale has an experience edge over the field. Also think Maritimer is a bit of an interesting horse (3), he's ran well on the synthetic at Woodbine. He would have been Triple Crown nominated, however his owner is Ramzan Kadyrov, the President of Chechnya, and the US State Department currently won't allow him to run his horses in this country because of his human rights violations. It's tough to really get a feel for this and all the other Dubai races this weekend just because horses are coming from all over the world and almost all running on turf or dirt tracks, not the Tapeta course, so it typically is a good time to take shots against the favorites, which will be Wrote (who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf) and Lucky Chappy.

UAE Derby Selections
1. Balada Sale (4)
2. Lucky Chappy (1)
3. Maritimer (3)

 

Well that was an interesting weekend. I'll recap in chronological order:

UAE Derby, Meydan, 1 3/16 miles (Tapeta)


I mentioned before that there were six horses that were nominated to the Triple Crown, but the only one who I thought would possibly run in the Derby would have been Lucky Chappy (1), who ended up finishing a non-threatening 7th and will not have enough earnings to get to the Derby. However, the top 3 finishers- Daddy Long Legs (7), Yang Tse Kiang (8), and Wrote (13) all were among the six nominated, and it's possible that all three may take a shot at the Derby. Daddy Long Legs becomes yet another horse from that Breeders Cup Juvenile to win a graded stakes race as a 3 year old. He ran a very nice race, however he benefited from a slow pace, sitting in second behind a horse in Helmet (14) that did not want to run any sort of long distance. One interesting note with Daddy Long Legs- before the UAE Derby, he looked like a mess- was sweating profusely and didn't look like a horse who was ready to run, yet when he raced in the Juvenile (in which he finished 12th of 13), he looked perfectly fine. Maybe he's a horse like Shackleford from last year, where if he isn't acting up, something is wrong with him? His trainer Aiden O'Brien said that he'd be a strong possibility for the Derby. He'll need to improve greatly on dirt compared to his poor effort in the Juvenile, but his breeding should allow him to run on dirt. O'Brien also trains the favored Wrote, who has enough earnings based on his BC Juvenile Turf win last year, and he is also being considered for the Derby. However, his breeding is much more slanted towards the turf. The horse that I thought ran the best race was the French runner up, Yang Tse Kiang. Unlike Daddy Nose Best and Wrote, Yang Tse Kiang was at the back of the pack until starting to make a move at the top of the stretch. That he gained that kind of ground with that pace setup was really impressive. He also seems like a horse bred solely for the turf, and he is the least likely of the three to actually run in the Derby, but if he did come over, and he could show that he could take to a dirt track, he would be very intriguing, and because he isn't well known (even compared to the other two horses from the UAE Derby), I'd have to imagine he would be one of the longest shots on the board. I'm keeping an eye out on him for sure, just in case he does come over here.

Florida Derby, Gulfstream, 1 1/8 miles

Apparently the connections of Take Charge Indy (3) knew what they were doing when they scratched him from the Tampa Bay Derby and pointed him for this race, as he won by a length over Reveron (9), who ran the best race of his career. The two hyped horses, Union Rags (6) and El Padrino (8) ran third and fourth respectively. The top two runners benefited from being able to slow the race down along the backstretch and going into the far turn, while Union Rags and El Padrino had more troubled trips. Take Charge Indy for sure will run in the Derby, and he'll probably be one of the favorites, not only because he is a talented horse, but also because his jockey is Calvin Borel- who single-handedly made Twice the Appeal go off at 12-1 in last years Derby, when he should have been 50-1. He received a 95 Beyer in this win. Union Rags had the toughest trip- he was trapped by El Padrino alongside him for much of the race, and didn't start running until it was too late. He was charging hard at the end. I still wonder if he really wants to go 1 1/4 miles. My guess is that despite this third, he'll be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. El Padrino was wide throughout, and was gaining some ground at the end. When it comes down to it, though, maybe he just isn't as good as previously thought. Another problem for him is that he's now in a tough situation earnings wise. Depending on how the other preps shake out and which horses pass over the Derby, he may not have enough earnings to get in. As for Reveron, he is just behind El Padrino in earnings. He just seems like a horse that just relishes Gulfstream. Then again, maybe he could turn out to be this year's Shackleford. Plenty of similarities between those two.

Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, 1 1/8 miles

A horse that went of at 109-1 won the race. If that doesn't tell you how poor this field is, it gets even worse. That longshot winner was Hero of Order (12), who held off the favored Mark Valeski (1A) by half of a length, with Rousing Sermon (11) and Cigar Street (6) finishing 3rd and 4th. The other real bad sign for this race (outside of a FUCKING 109-1 SHOT WINNING THE RACE) was that it was completed in 1:50.13. The other 1 1/8 race run, the Grade-II New Orleans Handicap for older horses, was run nearly 2 and a half seconds faster (1:47.63). Hero of Order, while he now has enough earnings to run in the Derby, was not Triple Crown nominated, so the only way he'll be able to run is if 20 horses aren't entered into the race. Mark Valeski and Rousing Sermon both pick up graded earnings, and both are currently just ahead of El Padrino in graded earnings, but even if they both do enter, I won't consider anyone in this race. The Louisiana group of horses this year were just bad. And the invader who won the Risen Star, El Padrino, didn't run too well against tougher competition. No Beyer yet assigned for Hero of Order's win, but I would guess that it will be somewhere in the low 80's, which is downright terrible for a race with this stature.

 

Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles

The Wood lost a little bit of luster when Hansen decided to run in the Bluegrass Stakes, but it came up with an interesting field of 8, headed by Gemologist (6) and Alpha (1). I'm against Gemologist in this race, knowing full well he might just be better than these horses. But he had everything his own way in his first start this year, and while he looked impressive while doing it, he'll have to deal with other speed from The Lumber Guy (8), Teeth of the Dog (4), and My Adonis (3) right behind them. I prefer Alpha of the two marquee horses- he'll have a more favorable pace setup, and he's been improving with every race. He'll need to do that again to win, though, and he won't go off at much better odds than Gemologist. Another horse I like is Street Life (5), who will certainly benefit from a fast pace, and is also improving with every start. I think he might have the most upside of anyone racing in this race, but he figures to be bet heavier than his speed figure indicate he should be bet. With that said, those two are my top two choices, and I'll lean towards Street Life.

Wood Selections:
1. Street Life (5)
2. Alpha (1)
3. Gemologist (6)

Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles

I think it's well established how I feel about Creative Cause (1). I think he's the best 3YO in the country, and I will be picking him on top in this race. He may not run his best race-its just a prep for the Kentucky Derby for his connections, but with Bodemeister pointing to the Arkansas Derby, I don't think he necessarily needs to run his best race to win this one. The way to make money on this one is to play exotics, going against I'll Have Another (4). He ran very well in his win in the Robert B. Lewis in February, but that group of horses he beat have been disappointments. He's a solid horse, but I want him to prove it to me again. The horse that intrigues me the most is Paynter (6). He has only run one race, at 5 1/2 furlongs no less, but his pedigree says he wants distance, and he was very impressive in that one win. He's been showing strong workouts leading up to the race as well. It wouldn't surprise me if he ran a huge race. Then again, it wouldn't surprise me if the jump in distance has an effect on him. But he should be a good enough price as Baffert's second horse in this race (behind Liaison (2)), plus with Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and even Longview Drive (5) and Midnight Transfer (8). Speaking of which, I also like Midnight Transfer in the exotics. I think his best distances will be more in the mile range, but I think he can get 1 1/8 in the right situation, and I think this could be it for him. Doesn't mean I think he'll win, but I like him more than I'll Have Another or Longview Drive in this spot.

Santa Anita Derby Selections:
1. Creative Cause (1)
2. Paynter (6)
3. Midnight Transfer (8)

Illinois Derby, Hawthorne, 1 1/8 miles

I'm not sure what this race means in terms of a Derby prep, but it's an interesting betting race, with 14 horses plus 3 AE's entered and questions abound for every horse in the field. I think the morning line has the two most talented horses as the top two choices in Currency Swap (4) and Our Entourage (11), but I'm against them here. Currency Swap I think will have the best career of any horse in this field, but I think he wants to run shorter distances, and I'm still not convinced he is 100% healthy. As for Our Entourage, he runs his best races on turf. My top pick will be Morgan's Guerrilla (12). There isn't a ton of early speed in this race, and I like that Rosie Napravnik is coming up to Hawthorne just to ride this horse. He does need to show he can run fast on a dry track- both of his lifetime starts have been on wet tracks. Done Talking (13) finished one spot ahead of Our Entourage in the Remsen last year. He didn't show up at all in his 3YO debut in the Gotham, but he faces weaker competition here, and he should improve with this second start off of a layoff. For an even longer shot, Frankie Is Rock (10) is a horse I'd be interested in. He has a very good distance pedigree, so I'm thinking with added distance, he'll improve. Blinkers go on for him, so that may help in focus a bit more. My top three is made up of horses with the following morning lines: 10-1, 30-1, and 20-1. And another 30-1 shot, Fastestwhogetspaid (9), has beaten Frankie Is Rock, and it wouldn't surprise me if he finished in the top 3. This could be a wild race with some large payoffs.

Illinois Derby Selections:
1. Morgan's Guerrilla (12)
2. Frankie Is Rock (10)
3. Done Talking (13)

 

Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, 1 1/8 miles


It was thought going in that it was a two horse race, and Gemologist (6) and Alpha (1) didn't disappoint. The final time (1:50:96) might look a bit slow compared to past Wood Memorials, but the track was playing extremely slow all day long. Neither horse got perfect trips, but I definitely think Alpha had more trouble of the two- he had to steady and was shuffled back around the first turn (at about 20 seconds in the video), while Gemologist traveled 3 wide on both terms, but was otherwise untroubled. With the narrow margin, that could have made the difference. With that said, even with a better trip, I don't think Alpha passes Gemologist. Alpha is no doubt talented, and this was his best race to date, but I still don't think he is all there mentally yet. He was right there with Gemologist, but faltered a bit when he hit the shadows. I still think he can improve. Gemologist stamped himself as one of the Derby favorites- he showed that he has fight in him beating out Alpha. He took another step forward from his allowance win (both horses got 98 Beyers), and he galloped out better than Alpha. On top of that, his pedigree with Tiznow and a Mr. Prospector mare definitely would allow for him to run well at longer distances. Both will move on to Kentucky, and both will be factors. Gemologist may be as high as the second choice on the morning line. Not much behind them- neither My Adonis (3) or Street Life (5) did much running. No other horse besides the top two has near enough earnings to run in the Derby.

Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, 1 1/8 miles


The other big race turned out much like the Wood- the top two choices, Creative Cause (1) and I'll Have Another (4) finished in the top two spots, however the second choice I'll Have Another got the win. He surprised me a bit with how well he ran, though I think the reason he won was a factor of the trips the two horses received. It was a very easy pace set by Blueskiesnrainbows (8), who eventually ran a game third. I'll Have Another sat right behind him, while Creative Cause had to make a move on the far turn to get into position, and just couldn't finish him off. I think if Creative Cause was in better position (ie was able to get outside earlier in the race), that he wins the race. Taking the blinkers off didn't really affect him too much, he was still a little erratic in the stretch. Both horses ran a bit slower speed figure wise than their previous race (both got a 94 BSF), but part of that was due to the slower pace, they ran a little better than the figure shows. I still regard Creative Cause as my top Derby horse, and I think will turn the tables on I'll Have Another at Churchill. The only other Derby potential horse will be sixth-place finisher Liaison (2). He didn't get the best pace setup in this race, but he just has run three subpar races in a row. Baffert thinks he just doesn't like Santa Anita, but I've never thought he was that good. Baffert plans on sending him to Churchill to see if he trains any better on the track, but even if he goes, I don't like his chances at all.

Illinois Derby, Hawthorne, 1 1/8 miles Video here

Done Talking (13) beat Morgan's Guerrilla (12), but this was just an extremely slow race filled with horses that aren't that good, and somebody had to win it. Done Talking will go on to Kentucky, but he'll be one of the longest shots on the board (if not the longest shot). One good thing about him is that he likes to run from the back of the pack, and he'll get a good pace to run into in the Derby. But this was his fastest career race, and it still only got an 86 Beyer. He seems like the type of horse that will finish 13th in the Derby, just by passing some tired horses, but will never actually challenge the best horses.

Bay Shore, Aqueduct, 7 furlongs


I'll touch briefly on Trinniberg (1) because he has enough graded earnings should he run, and his connections are started to consider it, which would be a mistake. Trinniberg could be one of the best 3YO sprinters in the country, and they should keep it that way. If you desperately want to put this horse on the Triple Crown trail, then run him in the Derby Trial and point him to the Preakness. I still think that would be misguided, but it at least makes a little more sense than going to the Derby. Its also worth noting that he got a real easy trip in the Bay Shore. And the connections have noted that the Derby probably wouldn't be best for this horse, but since they've never had a shot before, they may take him anyways. I hope they keep him sprinting or in mile races, because he could do real well in races like the King's Bishop this summer. But he isn't a Derby horse.

 

Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack, Saturday Race 11

The preview for the Blue Grass will be long, because there are a lot of fascinating horses running. This looks to be one of the better Blue Grass stakes in recent years- since Keeneland has replaced its dirt track with synthetic, it hasn't had many (if any) quality dirt horses since Street Sense in 2007. That isn't the case this year, with a couple different graded stakes winning dirt horses in the field, led by the favorite Hansen (4), who I think is the best horse in the race. The surface won't be a problem, as he has 2 wins on a similar Turfway Park track, winning by a combined 25 1/2 lengths. I also don't think the distance will be a factor for him. There are two things that do give me pause in this race: first of all, I don't think he needs to run his best race- his chief goal is the Kentucky Derby. Second, there is a lot of early pace, and while he showed last race he can rate behind a horse, this still isn't ideal. With that in mind, it's tough to take him at 6-5, and I'll try to beat him, knowing that if he runs his A race, he wins, and probably wins handily. Dullahan (6) is getting the most buzz coming into this race, and it's understandable why: he won the Grade 1 Breeder's Futurity on this track, and ran a nice (if distant) 4th in the BC Juvenile and 2nd to Howe Great (10) in the Palm Beach in his first start. On top of that, he'll get a good pace setup. But he hasn't run that real fast race, and he'll be a clear second choice. To be honest, there isn't much separating him and Prospective (3), a horse that has better recent form, has run a faster best race than Dullahan, will get the same pace setup, and has also won a graded stakes on synthetic. And he'll go off at much better odds. The long shot that really intrigues me is Holy Candy (9), who has been highly regarded in California, but didn't break his maiden until his 4th try. He was favored in all four, and he finished second in his first three, all to horses who would go on to finish in the top 3 of a Graded stake this year (Empire Way, Castaway, and Stirred Up). Outside of Hansen, his speed figures are competitive with the rest of the field, and on the morning line he is 30-1 (though I would be surprised if he went off at that price). If any of those four horse won, I would not be surprised. Just because I don't have Dullahan in my top 3, it doesn't mean I'm totally against him- I would have him third if it weren't for the odds discrepancy between him and Holy Candy.

I'm against the other bigger name horses for various reasons. Howe Great is a turf horse who has been getting to set easy paces, and won't get that this time. Ever So Lucky (11) and Scatman (13) don't want to go this far (particularly Scatman), plus Ever So Lucky has had health issues. Heavy Breathing (1) I just don't think is that good, and he'll have a to deal with more early pressure than he did in the Spiral. The same could be said about Midnight Crooner (8), though he is the one wild card to me in this race- don't really know what to expect from him. And lastly, Hero of Order (12) runs back quickly from his win in the relatively slow Louisiana Derby and will have to deal with a tougher pace setup. He's a tough horse though.

Blue Grass Selections:
1. Prospective (3)
2. Hansen (4)
3. Holy Candy (9)

Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn, 1 1/8 miles, Saturday Race 11

I don't think there is quite as much depth in this race, and I have a tough time seeing any horse beat Bodemeister (11), although I don't love his outside post position. There are only two other horses that have run races even comparable to Bodemeister's last two: Secret Circle (5) and Isn't He Clever (6), and both of those have questions to answer. Secret Circle's question is distance, and I have trouble seeing him getting 1 1/8, particularly with how he was struggling down the stretch of the Rebel, yet still held on to win over Optimizer (7). I'm against him in this race, though I think he is clearly the second best horse- I just think that he'll be best racing at a mile. As for Isn't He Clever, he needs to show he is the same horse outside of Sunland Park, where he has run his three best races, but when he shipped to Santa Anita for the Robert B. Lewis, he ran a well beaten 5th. Still, he ran extremely well finishing second in the Sunland Park Derby, a race where I thought he ran the best race. I mentioned Optimizer, who was gaining a lot of ground late in the Rebel, but that was more a function of horses slowing down than him actually running, and I still think that he's better running on turf. Sabercat (9) has enough money for the Derby, but I don't think he is that good. If I had to pick a horse to beat Bodemeister, it would be the late running Najjaar (3). He certainly needs to improve, but his race in the Rebel was better than it appeared- he had a tough trip due to his outside post, leaving him way behind the rest of the field. I expect him to be at the back of the pack, but closer than he was in the Rebel, and he actually was finishing stronger than Optimizer was.

Arkansas Derby selections:
1. Bodemeister (11)
2. Najjaar (3)
3. Isn't He Clever (6)

 

Some good performances today:

Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland, 1 1/8 (Polytrack)


Have to give credit to Dullahan (6), he ran a terrific race running down Hansen (4) in the stretch. Both horses, along with the third place finishing Gung Ho (2) and fourth place Holy Candy (9) I thought ran well. It's a performance that will most likely make Dullahan one of the favorites in the Kentucky Derby. I don't have any doubts that he will get the distance. I still think ultimately he will be a better horse on turf and synthetic than dirt, but after watching him run today, I can't completely dismiss his chances in the Derby. He reminds me a bit of Paddy O'Prado, who finished third in the Derby two years ago to Super Saver. He is a half brother to Mine That Bird, and he did run decently finishing 4th in the Juvenile last year. I still prefer others, and I still prefer Hansen of the two. Neither of my opinions on these two horses really changed too much. Hansen got back to going to the lead, and he didn't fade so much as Dullahan just flew down the stretch. The Beyer hasn't been assigned yet, but my guess is it will be within a couple of points of Gemolgists' 98 in the Wood. I was a bit disappointed in Prospective's (3) 6th place finish. He'll probably go on to the Derby anyways, but I don't see him doing well there.

Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8


I had high expectations for Bodemeister (11) coming into the race, and he exceeded them. It's the best race I've seen a 3 YO run since Eskendereya won the Wood Memorial in 2010, and I thought he would have won the Triple Crown had he not gotten hurt and subsequently retired. How good was this race? The race before was the Oaklawn Handicap, which was the same distance and included many of the top older horses in the nation, including Alternation (who won the race), Donn winning Hymn Book, Big Cap winning Ron the Greek, and last year's Derby runner up Nehro. Alternation won the race in 1:49:94. Bodemeister finished the Arkansas Derby in 1:48:71. No Beyer has been assigned yet, but it will easily be the biggest figure for a Derby contender- it may approach 110. To play devil's advocate, he didn't have much pressure setting the pace, and that won't be the case at Churchill, but at the same time, it wasn't as if he set a slow pace- he set a fair pace and just hit another gear running in the stretch. He beat Baffert's other horse, Secret Circle (5), by over 9 lengths. It wasn't a terrible effort by Secret Circle, who has more than enough earnings to run in the Derby if he chooses to. I don't think he should, he should stick to races at a mile, and I wonder if Bodemeister getting enough earnings with this win makes it easier for Baffert to decide not to run him in the Derby. Would think the third place finisher, Sabercat (9), will go on to the Derby, on the basis of his Delta Jackpot win last year. He ran better this time then he did in the Rebel, but I don't think he is that good.

 

Aidan O'Brien will not bring Wrote over for the Derby, and it sounds more and more likely that the connections of Trinniberg are going to do the right thing and run in the Derby Trial. With that in mind, here is the updated graded earnings list (Wrote is off, Trinniberg remains on it for now). Hero of Order will not be running because he isn't nominated to the Triple Crown:

Spoiler

1 Hansen Michael Maker $1,550,000
2 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien $1,294,030
3 Union Rags Michael Matz $1,170,000
4 Dullahan Dale Romans $855,000
5 Creative Cause Mike Harrington $836,000
6 Gemologist Todd Pletcher $703,855
7 Sabercat Steve Asmussen $701,429
8 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne $698,400
9 Secret Circle Bob Baffert $670,000
10 Bodemeister Bob Baffert $660,000
11 Hero of Order * Gennadi Dorochenko $617,375
12 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill $601,000
13 Daddy Nose Best Steve Asmussen $545,558
14 Liaison Bob Baffert $393,000
15 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin $380,000
16 Prospective Mark Casse $367,327
17 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo $324,500
18 Done Talking Hamilton Smith $311,000
19 Went the Day Well Graham Motion $282,000
20 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer $270,000
21 Mark Valeski Larry Jones $260,000
22 El Padrino Todd Pletcher $250,000
23 Reveron Agustin Bezara $220,000
24 Isn't He Clever Henry Dominguez $188,000
25 Optimizer D. Wayne Lukas $184,708

Barring any late change of plans, it appears El Padrino will be the last horse in the field. There remains the possibility that Reveron runs in the Lexington this weekend, but the chances of him running appears to be dwindling, and no other horses could get into the top 20 even with a win.

As things stand now, it looks like a much better, deeper Kentucky Derby this year. If Dialed In (last year's Derby favorite) were in this race, he probably would be 7th choice at best, behind Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Bodemeister, Gemologist, and Dullahan. And that doesn't even take into account the winners of the Florida and Santa Anita Derbies. There could be some real nice value with some horses running, particularly with the presence of Union Rags, who I think will be overbet.

 

Secret Circle came out of the Arkansas Derby with a sesamoid injury, and will be out for several months. This would mean that Reveron would get in.

Lexington Stakes, Keeneland, 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, Saturday Race 9

The Lexington Stakes became slightly more Kentucky Derby relevant with Castaway (7) entered. If he wins, he'll jump into the top 20 in graded earnings. He is my pick to win the Lexington. He'll get a much more beneficial trip this time around as opposed to the Sunland Derby- much less early speed in this race. The only other horse with any chance to have enough earnings to run in the Derby would be Morgan's Guerrilla (1). He'll show some speed as well, and the only other horse I could see with them would be Johannesbourbon (3), who is coming off of a good maiden win at Turfway Park (actually think he's a threat in this race). I can't say I'm all that high on any one outside of Castaway. Morgan's Guerrillla, Golden Ticket (5), Holiday Promise (6) and News Pending (10) will be bet based on good 2nd place performances in graded stakes that they have had. Morgan's Guerrilla is consistent, but this will be his first try over a synthetic surface. With News Pending, there wasn't too much behind him in the Fountain of Youth, and he did no running in the Florida Derby. Plus he has also never run on a synthetic track, though he did run okay in a couple turf starts. Golden Ticket ran twice on Keeneland's track last year, but didn't run particularly well in either effort. He has improved, so he'll probably be better this time than his other two starts, but I still prefer others. Holiday Promise's best performance was on a synthetic track, but he got a very good trip that day. There isn't as much speed in this race, so I don't think he gets his ideal trip. He has been training well as Keeneland though. Of these four, I think Holiday's Promise is the biggest threat in this race, but I don't love any of them in this spot. If you want a real long shot to get into the back of the exotics, I kind of like All Squared Away (9).

Lexington Picks:
1. Castaway (7)
2. Johannesbourbon (3)
3. Holiday's Promise (6)

Jerome Stakes, Aqueduct, 1 mile, Saturday Race 9

This is more of a Preakness prep than a Kentucky Derby prep, and it came up a relatively even field. Pretty much every horse has run a race that could win this race. Because of that, it is hard to take one of the favorites on top. There is a lot of speed in the field for a seven horse: The Lumber Guy (1), Right to Vote (5), Term Loan (7), and maybe Brigand (2) will be quick out of the gate. This sets it up for my top selection, Adirondack King (6). He didn't get a good trip in the Rebel, but his race before in the Southwest Stakes was a good performance. He runs that race again, and I think he'll win. Stirred Up (3) will be the favorite, and he'll get the same trip that Adirondack King did. My problem with him is he had an even better pace setup in the Sunland Derby, but was a well distant third. Despite the other early speed in this race, I think the drop in class and the turn back in distance will benefit The Lumber Guy. He'll hold off the other speed horses, but won't be able to hold off Adirondack King.

Jerome Picks:
1. Adirondack King (6)
2. The Lumber Guy (1)
3. Stirred Up (3)

 

It's too early for me to make my official picks- I want to see the post draw and what horses do and don't actually enter. More than any other race that will be run in the US, the trip a horse receives is extremely important in the Derby. But here are my top 3 contenders at this point:

1. Creative Cause- He was the top horse on my list coming into the year, and hasn't done anything to dissuade me. He has a good running style for the race, will get the distance, is battle tested, has a good foundation, and is talented enough. Plus he'll have one of the best jockeys in the country on his back in Joel Rosario.
2. Bodemeister- On talent, he is the best horse in this crop. But the best horse often does not win this race. Different running style, but there are a lot of similarities between him and Curlin (who ultimately proved to be the best horse on the planet while he was racing, but finished 3rd in the Derby). The Derby draw will be very important to him. If a horse goes on to win the Triple Crown this year, though, he is the one.
3. Gemologist- Got a good fight from Alpha in the Wood, and should be able to put himself in to good stalking position. He's improved with each start this year, and from the way he won the Wood, I wouldn't be surprised if he improved again. He seemed to relax a bit when he took the lead, then when Alpha approached him, he got it going again.

 

Trinniberg is now being pointed to the Derby. Reveron is hurt and will miss, but with Trinniberg running, he would have needed another defection.

 

Nobody who ran today will run in the Derby. Castaway and Morgan's Guerrilla both did nothing in the Lexington.

All Squared Away (9) won the Lexington at 70-1. He shouldn't have been that much of a longshot, and I really wish I would have made some bets with him (didn't bet the race). But I don't think it was all that impressive of a race. Morgan's Guerrilla (1) never ran, and Castaway (6) dropped like a rock on the far turn. I don't expect much in this race in terms of any Triple Crown race.

Haven't seen the Jerome yet, but The Lumber Guy (1) won it, and could be a Preakness horse. Will break it down when I see it.

 

The Lumber Guy, who won the Jerome, is being pointed toward the Peter Pan instead. Doesn't appear to be running in any of the Triple Crown races. He ran a nice race though, and could be a good horse in the mile division.

Also, if you ever wondered what it was like to be on a Derby caliber horse, this is kind of a cool video filmed by the workout rider of Creative Cause in his workout a few days before his victory in the San Felipe Stakes. He starts his workout at about 4:30 into the video.

 

Yeah me and toussaud (not sure what happened to him) had this thread going last year: http://the-mainboard.com/index.php?threads/kentucky-derby-top-5.84794/

Between the two of us, we actually handicapped last year's Derby pretty damn well.