I figured I would join the party and track my plays here. I don't bet large sums of money, but I enjoy capping games and comparing my thoughhts with vegas and the outcomes. Feel free to give any pointers, help, critiques. I like learning about this stuff. Here are my first two weeks: Week 1 North Texas +13.5 L Wisconsin -34 P Auburn -23 L Alabama -39 W Georgia +3 L LSU +3 W Parlay: Miami +4/over 45.5 L (Ouch!) Week 2 Missouri +10.5 W Wisconsin -20.5 W Ohio State -18 L Auburn +5.5 W Stanford -20 W Oregon -26.5 W Arkansas Over 57 L South Florida -20.5 W Florida -23.5 W Parlay: Alabama -10/Over 41.5 L Steelers +2 L Buccaneers -2.5 L Falcons -1.5 L Cowboys +6.5 W Oakland +3 W Oakland over 42 W Parlay: Panters Over 37.5/Vikings Over 43 L Parlay: Cowboys 1H +4/Over 40.5 W Parlay: Patriots -7/Under 46 L Total: 12-8-1 on sides, 1-4 parlays
Here are the games I'm looking at for week 3: LSU (-3.5)@ MSU LSU's defense, especially against the run, is stellar. MSU's strength on offense is the run. When strength and strength collide, I always like defense better. I don't Relf can beat LSU passing, and I don't think they can run the ball effectively enough beat beat LSU either. However, something is funny about this line. Given MSU's terrible record against western division teams and LSU's performance thus far, I thought LSU would've been a 7 point favorite. I like LSU, but I feel like I'm missing something. Iowa State @ UConn (-4) With Iowa State's emotional 3OT victory and UConn's struggle with a sub-par Vandy, I like Iowa State. Paul Rhoads has made this program competitive. I think Iowa State will be too athletic for UConn. Wisconsin (-16)@ Northern Illinois It's a neutral site. Wisconsin is extremely physical on both sides of the ball. Norther Illinois has a high-powered offense, but they are allowing 35.5 points per game along with giving up 278 per game on the ground and 200 in the air. I think the Badgers are legit this year and will run for 350+ in this game. Arizona State (-1)@ Illinois Two good offenses playing in what I think will be a shootout. ASU has been tested a little better with its game against Missouri, and Illinois hasn't really played any competition. It should still be a good game, but I think ASU should cover the point. More to come...
Ole Miss (-1.5) @Vanderbilt Vandy traditionally plays well against Ole Miss and is coming off a big win against UConn. Ole Mss is without starting RB Brandon Bolden. This will be a big game for the Commodores. I like Vandy in this situation.
Thanks man. Hopefully, it's a good week. Auburn @ Clemson (-3.5) Being an Auburn fan, my fandom tells me we can and should win this game. Trying to be objective is difficult for this game. However, I think the line for this game is right. Auburn is very young and inexperienced, although they improved from week 1 to 2. Auburn is notoriously bad with early starts. This should be a crazy environment, Auburn's first road game, and Clemson has had the preseason and the first 2 games to prepare for this game. This sets up for a big opportunity for Clemson. Michigan State @ Notre Dame (-4.5) Notre Dame should be 2-0, but they can't hold onto the ball. Michigan State hasn't been tested by a decent offense, and Notre Dame will definitely test them. I like Michigan State, but the public is heavily on them and the line has from -3.5 to -4.5, which worries me.
Houston (-7) @ La Tech Houston should score a lot of points. La Tech won't have enough offense to keep up or defense to slow down Case Keenum. I like the Cougars. Also looking at: Stanford -10 FIU +5 Arkansas -22.5
Week 3 LSU -3 (B+.5) W Toledo +20 L Iowa State +4 W Auburn +155 ML L Vanderbilt +3 (B+.5) W Colorado St +7.5 L I'll add the later games before they start.
Well, I didn't get all of my plays posted last week. I wasn't around a computer much. I started the week +.7 units and ended +23.5 units. I don't mind publishing my bet history to verify that. I'm not here to try and impress anyone. I'll probably have a weekend that I have the exact opposite results. A little on how I bet. I play the weeknight games and try to pick 3 games for each time slot (12:00, 3:30, 7:00). I bet small amounts and, on good weekends, it allows for decent returns. I do it more for fun and to make games exciting that I otherwise wouldn't watch. I also like to make the occasional 2H 2 team parlay. So, week 4: NC State +7.5 (B+.5) L NC State over 60.5 L UCF +1.5 L UGA -9.5 (B+.5) W Syracuse -2 W Tulane +10.5 Arkansas +12 Clemson -1.5
I don't know that it's a great philosophy because it almost has a chase mentality, which I try very hard not to do. I just can't handle the stress of putting big money on a game. I put what I'm okay losing on a game and try to counteract that with quantity to make a profit. King, you seem to understand line movements well. I like following your stuff and reading your write-ups.
Started the morning off well after struggling this week. let's hope the rest of the day continues well.