The first number in the spread and total columns are the current line and the number in the parentheses is the opening number. The system diff A column is the usual number from the last 5 years. It says what the system thinks the line should be. For instance it says the Oregon line should be Oregon -8.2. Therefore, the system is saying the vegas line is off by 11.2 since the current line is Auburn -3. The system diff B column puts a little more emphasis on SOS and operates the same way. I've also included the 3 O/U angles from last year. The Off O/U angle hit at over 70% and when all 3 agreed, it hit at over 80%. I've bolded and highlighted the lines where all angles agree on the side or total. If you have any questions, let me know.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread Sem--will you post a screen shot of your spreadsheet results like last year. I loved using that as a cross check
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread I don't know what to do with all of this spare money i am going to have. Hookers and blow as usual i suppose
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread Its complete. Will post here late tonight or probably tomorrow. Oregon looking good...
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) They are line predictors from foxsheets. There just another angle to consider, they have nothing to do with the system.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) Here's last year's thread... http://www.the-mainboard.com/forum/index.php/topic,37685.240.html
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) could you explain what this means? I'm assuming it is the predicted outcome, but what does 'usual number from the past 5 years' mean? tia, I'm not familiar with anything like this and am relatively new to gambling.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) In the past I've posted this sheet with just one system diff number. It's the line my system spits out at what the line should be. If it says Oregon should be a 4 point favorite and the vegas line is Auburn -3, then Oregon would be the play. That number that has been on the sheet like usual is the System Diff A. I decided to another angle this year to give us more to look at which places a heavier consideration on SOS. That number is in the System Diff B column. I wanted to keep them separate because as the adage goes, you don't try to fix it if it's not broken. This way we still have out reliable number (that's hit 75% in 2008 and 68% in 2009) as well as another angle to look at.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) Seems like your system agrees with Ok State and Michigan overs which I'm on. Seems to like the NW over a lot but you gotta factor in Persa being injured so I'll stay away from that.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) Just curious....do you think running only Georgia's last 8 games(their 8 with AJ Green playing) as opposed to all 12 would changed that number against UCF a lot?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) Sem--stupid question, but your System Diff A and B are what your system says the line should be or how much the line is off. EX BYU -7.1. Does that mean BYU should only be favored by 7.1 or the line is off by 7.1 in BYU's favor and they really should be favored by 18.6 (11.5 plus 7.1) I just got drunk and confused myself...thanks.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) It is saying what the line should be, not how much it is off.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Sheet in OP) Some notes from last year: The Off O/U number went 26-8 (74%) last year, 5-1 when the number was off by 10+ points. When all 3 O/U numbers agreed with each other, the system was 13-3 (81%) The System Diff number was 19-15, 6-3 ATS when the number was off by more than 6 points.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) Updated to include the Off and Def O/U columns as well as to highlight the sides/totals where all angles agreed.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) First wager, seeing it already start to drop to 58.5 in some places.... ***NIU/Fresno State Under 59
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) thoughts on tcu wisky? isn't W is playing awesome now, and tcu disappointed? opposite of what your lines are tho
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) thanks. another (probably stupid) question. when he says his Sys A picks were 75% in 2008 and 68% in 2009, does he mean... - his star picks (***) are 75%/68%, or - ALL of the Sys A picks (i.e. for every game) are 75%/68%? TIA
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) I think it means that if you played every game how System A said to, it won 75/68 in those two years.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) I really like TCU. Vegas is begging people to take Wisky.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) Sorry, should've clarified. My picks were 75% in 08 and 68% in 09.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) ****NIU -1 ***Fresno/NIU Under 59 ***Ohio/Troy Under 58 **Ohio +2 **UTEP/BYU Under 50 *UTEP +11.5
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) On the opposite of a couple. On BYU -11.5 & on Fresno/NIU Over
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) Ohio/Troy is off the board on Bookmaker.com anybody know why?
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) I saw it earlier this AM when I was checking lines, no clue.
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Updated Sheet in OP) Its still up on sportsbook.com, based on vegasinsider.com its only off the board at a couple places
Re: FSUsem's Bowl Season Thread (Saturday Picks) According to scoresandodds.com, Ohio QB Jackson possible suspension.