Amazon HQ2 Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by steamengine, Sep 14, 2017.

  1. Baby Rabbit

    Baby Rabbit Pelican fan
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    You could always live in South Bend if you worked in Gary.

    If you want to live in as shitty of a town as you work in that is
     
  2. Arkadin

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    Just telling you that people aren't going to live 30 miles outside of the location. The 'youd live in Chicago thing' is a no go. They'll live in Chicago if Chicago gets it
     
  3. Baby Rabbit

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    The only cities in the Midwest that would actually be appealing to Amazon are Madison, Chicago, Grand Rapids, and Ann Arbor.

    If you're not one of those 4 don't even bother with a bid
     
  4. Arkadin

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    Well you got one of four right
     
  5. Red Rover

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    Thank you for your Midwest expertise
     
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  6. Thoros of Beer

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    Farva is damn good
     
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  7. Arkadin

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    It has absolutely nothing to do with the region. People aren't living that far outside of the facility. That's like their main point
     
  8. Thoros of Beer

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    You guys are going to look real stupid when Gary wins.
     
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  9. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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  10. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    100
     
  11. Thoros of Beer

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    Think how close they would be to three floyds
     
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  12. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    That's just rude
     
  13. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    Game Set Match
     
  14. Thoros of Beer

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    It's like people don't even think these things through
     
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  15. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    What
     
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  16. Baby Rabbit

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    You already look stupid
     
  17. Thoros of Beer

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    You would know lol
     
  18. theregionsitter

    theregionsitter Well-Known Member
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    Sidenote pretty brilliant publicity stunt by Gary
     
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  19. steamengine

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    I honestly don't see it and think dallas or San Antonio make more sense but I'm not in economic development.
     
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  20. * J Y *

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    I don't think he had any inside track except for knowing the governor is trying real hard to land it and will tout his involvement to the max if he does. That fed manager made the rounds to dozens of offices telling the same story so that seems reasonable that rumors about austin being the pre chosen destination get started. The word is they have already earmarked the space next to oracle out east on ladybird. I personally think it's all bullshit and that austinites have really started to enjoy the smell of their own farts. But the metro area has been scoring huge with the silicon tech crowd and everything seems to have worked very well so I think austin is a major player in this deal.
     
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  21. bigred77

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    Dfw or SA make more sense as far as city infrastructure, roads and land kinda stuff
    but if you are talking people and attracting the people they want, they arnt gunna get any better than Austin
     
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  22. POWESHOW

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    Just put it in San Jose and load up the fucking best coast. Pac12! Pac12!
     
  23. Baby Rabbit

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    What about Lubbock?
     
  24. Doc Louis

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    Pretty much this, it's either Austin or Atlanta. Whichever is easier for them to hire new workers who otherwise wouldn't relocate.
     
  25. Thoros of Beer

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    austin can't really compete with northwest indiana, and atlanta has too much gang violence.
     
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  26. Cousin Eddie

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    :dubioustrump:
     
  27. bigred77

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    exactly, they can steal from the others in town, and its nore attractive for pltech people to move in with the more work in the same fields nearby
     
  28. steamengine

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    I've seen like ten different definitive answers in this thread. We've got a lotta insiders I never knew about.
     
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  29. Thoros of Beer

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    you're an idiot if you can't see that ann arbor is the obvious choice
     
  30. Where Eagles Dare

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    :roll:

    Good a shit as them getting the Olympics
     
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  31. The Banks

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    Birmingham calls themselves the magic city?
     
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  32. fsugrad99

    fsugrad99 I'm the victim here
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    I’ll have you know my farts smell of fresh baked bread
     
  33. Jax Teller

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    You've never heard of the magic city classic?
     
  34. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Magic City Monday
     
  35. dallasdawg

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  36. Arkadin

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    No
     
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  37. The Banks

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    No. If anything I'd associate that with Orlando.
     
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  38. Gaknight

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    Orlando is the City Beautiful
     
  39. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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  40. Arkadin

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  41. The Blackfish

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    Classic WED post
     
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  42. Thoros of Beer

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  43. Fran Tarkenton

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  44. Larry Sura

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    Atlanta being in the top 3 is very realistic imo. The Dallas Business Journal had some other interesting stats that Amazon is looking for.

    This has some great info from Atlanta and Georgia's perspective, but it's a bit long. The bottom has a list of potential sites in Atlanta. They mention Amazon signed NDA's with state recruiters and real estate developers already. There's a site in Midtown (which is on the list) that has more square footage than Amazon needs in the first phase and the developer keeps saying there's a specific tenant they're waiting on to start construction. The timeline might not match up, and he might be talking about another company but it's interesting.


    http://www.myajc.com/news/local/ama...ike-chase-for-atlanta/4WojCheHLfcYaPQzLrQYJO/

     
  45. fsugrad99

    fsugrad99 I'm the victim here
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    Austin’s the same tbh. Our esteemed loonies in the State capitol trying to pass a bathroom bill could really fuck us.

    Well, that and shitty transportation. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if Atlanta got it.
     
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  46. Fran Tarkenton

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    Yea we have a really wtf mayoral election currently, then next yr have a Governor's race that will likely see the Religious Liberty nuts get their wish.

    Would be cool af if Amazon could strong arm them out of their own crazy.
     
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  47. steamengine

    steamengine I don’t want to press one for English!
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    Where Amazon's Next Headquarters Should Go
    We offer a data driven approach to selecting the best metro area for HQ2.
    https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/commentary/298321/Where-Amazons-Next-Headquarters-Should-Go/
    Analysis by Mark ZandiAdam Ozimek
    Oct 12, 2017
    expressed interest in bidding on HQ2, from New York City to Gary IN. As these cities make their case, and proud denizens across the country debate their hometown strengths, this analysis will make a data-driven attempt to answer the question: Where should Amazon put its second headquarters? (Make sure to vote here for the metro area you think Amazon should choose, and download the ranking model here.)

    In its request for proposals, Amazon lays out a variety of criteria for a new headquarters location. At the broadest level, it is looking for a metro area with more than 1 million people and a stable and business-friendly environment with the potential to attract and retain strong talent. In addition, it lists a variety of “key preferences and decision drivers” that provide some more detailed insight.

    Based on Amazon’s stated preferences and our understanding of the relevant economic factors that determine a city’s desirability from a business location standpoint, we have ranked metro areas based on five broad categories: 1) business environment, 2) human capital, 3) cost, 4) quality of life, and 5) transportation. In addition, we consider a sixth more subjective category, geography, which ranks metro areas based on unstated subjective regional and geographic factors that we believe Amazon will be considering but are subject to more debate than the five other categories.

    For the unit of analysis, we utilize metropolitan statistical areas and, where available, metropolitan divisions, which we will refer to collectively as metro areas. In keeping with Amazon’s preferences, we start with the 65 metro areas with a population of 1 million or more. The rankings include Seattle, which we do not consider a possible location, but will be useful for comparison.

    In each of the six categories, metro areas receive a zero to five score, with five being the highest possible. These scores are aggregations based on a subset of detailed variables for each metro area in each category. Below we briefly outline the variables included in each category and also which metro areas rise to the top.

    Business environment

    In its request, Amazon states that a “stable and business friendly environment” is crucial. A good business environment includes healthy state and metro fiscal conditions and efficient tax policy. To capture this, we include the state and metro area’s credit ratings and the state’s Tax Environment Ranking from the Tax Foundation. In addition, from the perspective of Amazon, the willingness to offer financial incentives will be viewed as an important part of the business environment. We use the New York Times measure of state business incentives per year, which we convert into incentives per worker for the state.

    Finally, a positive business environment is also reflected in the dynamism of the economy. To reflect this, we include five- and 10-year growth rates for both overall employment and high-tech employment.

    The top three metro areas ranked by business environment are Austin TX, Nashville and Dallas. All three rank highly for job growth and have the highest possible scores for state and metro credit ratings. Austin and Dallas also benefit from the state’s generous use of business incentives.

    Human capital

    A skilled workforce is crucial for any company, and especially for one looking to eventually hire 50,000 skilled workers. To measure human capital, we use a variety of indicators of the supply of workers as well as the supply-demand balance.

    First, we measure the flow of new skilled workers using the number of 2016 bachelor’s degree graduates from the National Center for Education Statistics. We include measures for overall graduates and additional measures for 1) graduates with relevant degrees (engineering/math/computers), 2) graduates from top colleges, and 3) graduates with relevant degrees and from top colleges.

    In addition, we measured the skills of the overall workforce using American Community Survey data on the number of adults with relevant degrees, again defined as engineering/math/computer degrees.

    Finally, Amazon will have an easier time hiring workers if the supply of people with relevant skills is abundant relative to the demand for those skills. To measure this, we took the ratio of 2016 graduates with relevant degrees divided by the total number of adults in the population with those degrees. Metro areas with a high ratio are graduating more students than they “need,” and thus have a desirable balance of supply relative to demand from Amazon’s perspective.

    The top three metro areas for human capital are Los Angeles, New York City, and Washington DC. All three have a large number of major universities, including both top schools and schools that graduate many with relevant degrees. This category is also one where huge population centers benefit from their size, and these areas are among the largest.

    Cost

    Given the considerable investment Amazon is planning, it understandably states that “the initial cost and ongoing cost of doing business are critical decision drivers.” To rank metro areas by relevant costs we focus on a few measures.

    First, real estate costs are relevant to both the cost of acquiring land and constructing new buildings and as a contributing factor in the cost of living for workers. To capture real estate costs, we utilize a new measure from CoreLogic that estimates the price per square foot of the entire single-family housing stock in a metro area. This measure is an improvement upon many existing measures, where costs can be biased upward by metro areas with large houses or where a greater share of high-priced homes have sold recently.

    We also utilize the Moody’s Analytics cost of doing business measure. This index uses data on taxes, energy prices, and unit labor costs to estimate a relative measure of the total cost of business in a metro area. We complement this with ACS data on the average salaries for workers in occupations that most closely matched those listed specifically by Amazon.

    The top three metro areas for cost are Buffalo NY, Oklahoma City, and Memphis TN. The price of a single-family home in Buffalo is $91 per square foot compared, for example, with $362 in Los Angeles, which leads the human capital category.

    Quality of life

    The ability to attract and retain a skilled workforce is important to Amazon, which makes quality of life an important consideration. To measure amenities, we use establishments per capita of both arts/entertainment/recreation and food/dining. We also measure the crime rate and include an econometric estimate of quality of life from economist David Albouy’s 2012 paper. To quantify school quality, we use a measure of the dropout rate that has been adjusted for the poverty rate using regression analysis. Finally, we capture diversity and inclusion using the average of the share of the population that is minority and the share that is foreign-born.

    The top three cities for quality of life are New York City, Seattle, and San Francisco. These metro areas are known for the quality of life and high amenities. However, the trade-off between quality and cost is clear, as these cities are ranked among the most costly.

    Transportation

    The availability of convenient transit access is important, especially for a major headquarters. As a result, Amazon lists access to mass transit and a major international airport as preferences. To reflect transit, walkability and bikability, we separately measure the percentage of workers who commute by public transportation, walking and bicycle. We also measure average commute time for drivers and for public transit commuters to capture transportation quality and congestion. Finally, we rank metro areas by annual enplanements for the largest airport in the metro area or within a close drive.

    The top three metro areas by transit access are San Francisco, Minneapolis and Seattle. San Francisco has a large share of public transit, bikers and walkers, and all three metro areas have access to a major airport.

    The top 10

    Austin finishes in first place, according to the overall rankings (download the full results here). Austin has the highest score on business environment in the top 10, thanks to fast job growth, a dynamic tech economy, and the high incentives Texas offers businesses. In a very close second is Atlanta, which scores high on human capital and affordability. In third place is Philadelphia, which does well on human capital and transportation and stands out for performing modestly in all categories while leading none.
    [​IMG]

    Across the five main categories, Amazon’s current home of Seattle comes in eighth place. This suggests that Seattle is not the best ranked city for an Amazon headquarters, in part because of very high costs, but nevertheless it ranks near the top. This is consistent with Amazon choosing to keep its existing headquarters in Seattle, since it remains a desirable location, but focusing its expansion efforts elsewhere, perhaps someplace less expensive. In other words, the rankings themselves help explain HQ2.

    Geographic wild card

    If the geography category is included, Philadelphia moves from third place to first place and Pittsburgh moves up to second place. The geography category includes distance from Amazon’s existing headquarters as one variable. Arguably, Amazon will want to diversify into a different labor market as much as possible; therefore we award points for metro areas farther away from Amazon’s Seattle headquarters. In addition, we award points to regions based on our subjective assessment of the regional advantages. The Northeast scores the highest because of the access to the economically important Northeast Corridor and the political power center of Washington DC. Finally, this category awards points for the number of Amazon fulfillment centers in the state and distance to Jeff Bezos' closest non-Seattle homes. Taken together, geography helps bring Pennsylvania’s two metro areas to the top of the list.
     
  48. TDCD

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    Rochester too high
     
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