Probably should just do the opposite of what I say but I would lean towards calls even though I am not buying any.
Earnings after hours yesterday...announced a CFO, maintained guidance, announced the model 3 debut (not for sale) in March, gigafactory apparently ahead of schedule.
As somebody who is finally making decent money after being in college for 6+ years.....what in the fucking fuck is this shit?
I bought a 2 lot of 104 calls for $3.05 Break even is $107 ..... not sure its going to hold until the morning.
I think they are introducing their newest model in the next couple days (if they haven't already). Its supposed to reach the "mass market" with a $35-$40k price range.
WFM had bad earnings and is trading down to 28.50 or so after hours. Finally one that I hopefully wont lose in.
That is the problem with options. Even when the call is right its hard to make money with the huge premiums.
Even WFM is rallying off the lows. Yikes ever since my great options trades in AMZN and GOOGL I have been getting hammered.
I probably will take a shot next week with PCLN but other than that I am probably done with options for this qtr. Still ahead since AMZN and GOOGL especially were so good but I haven't hit one since.
That's why I usually am selling some other contract/combo to fund as much of my trade as possible. It might limit my reward at times, but there are also instances where I'm able to place trades for next to nothing. Don't worry about jinxing any trades of mine - I've accepted the fact that sometimes things work and a lot of the time they don't. As long as I'm managing risk, I can miss on well over half my trades and still be profitable. Looks like my WFM and FB trades will pay off nicely tomorrow (as of right now). Hopefully they hold up...
Everyone, use tradercane as a lesson. When you are truly gambling and don't have any remotely logical reason to make an investment: 1) don't fucking do it and 2) definitely don't pick the most volatile way to make that gamble.
put 10 bucks on NBA lineups on draftkings. will probably make back 6-8 of that. drinking and interested in random basketball to help pass a night on the road.
I must have had no idea what I was doing when I made 700% on my GOOGL options or the almost 300% on the AMZN options. These are all high risk, high reward trades where if you are right 25% of the time you can do very well. So yes the last few days have been rough but that's part of the game.
I enjoy this much more than sports betting or casino gambling. And I can actually get the odds in my favor as opposed to the casino where you are always at a statistical disadvantage.
Reading this thread the past few days I thought it felt more like the gamblin thread than the investing thread. We do have some inexperienced posters when it comes to trades and investing reading this thread. It is probably a good idea to make sure they understand how much risk is involved with some of the trades being discussed.
I dedicate an overwhelmingly large portion of my savings to investing and diversification and a microscopic portion to speculating. Like buying Tesla because I think its the next Apple even though all the financials say no. Just don't treat it like "saving" money and I think its fine. Do it for the love of the game.
All of the trades I talk about on here are just speculative and for fun in a personal brokerage acct. I don't think my compliance would be OK with me talking about stuff I trade for my day job or "professionally." I can talk about the theory behind it but not any actual trades. One of the good things about options trades is that, if you purchase options, your risk is always limited. You definitely need to know what you are doing before trading them but if you know what you are doing they can be a great tool.
I realize most here are doing this for fun, but most people who do this dont realize the problem with day trading and options is the STCG you have to pay, so you have to be really successful to beat a well diversified portfolio with a long-term strategy behind it.
Oh yeah, I wasnt talking about you or anyone in here. Just that I know a ton of people that do it and dont factor in the tax aspect on top of the risk.
I think DollarBillHokie was saying that even with a sound plan you can still lose in the market. So if you can't even find a justification for taking some shots then just stay away and index ...
"Traders saw a 72 percent probability that the Fed would raise its benchmark rate next month, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg, up from 56 percent before the jobs report’s release. The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate averages 0.375 percent after the first increase."
I think part of it is that people have a generally negative perception of options. Many view them as very risky/volatile and as a loser's game. I think this view is partially inaccurate for a couple of reasons. First, consider options as a means of more efficiently utilizing capital. In some of the stocks you have traded options on (GOOGL & AMZN), it'd cost me $76,100 and $65,600 to buy 100 shares of each. For a lot of people that isn't possible as they don't have enough capital and/or would not be an efficient use of capital as it'd make up an outsized portion of their portfolio (i.e. if I have a $100k portfolio, that is 65-76% of it). Compare that with what it'd cost me to gain exposure via options (it'd cost me $2150 to buy the at the money GOOGL call option expiring in December/$2837 for the January one) and my opinion would be that I'm more efficiently using capital to gain exposure on an equivalent amount of shares (yes there are trade offs buying an option contract vs common stock, see below). Second, options can be a way in which one can better manage risk. Take the scenario above (buying 100 shares of GOOGL vs buying 1 ATM call option expiring in December/January). If I am holding GOOGL common stock and it gaps down $50 on earnings/some other negative news, I've just incurred a $5000 unrealized loss. However, if I had bought one of those call options, I'm likely out the premium I paid ($2150 or $2837) but that is it. And when I made the trade (purchased the call option), I knew 100% the amount I had at risk/could potentially lose. That is not necessarily true of the common stock as maybe I had a stop loss order $30 below where I bought it, but unfortunately for me that is not where it got executed b/c of the gap down. I end up losing $5000 as opposed to the $3000 I expected with my original stop (my stop order would get executed as soon as the market opened with shares down $50). Of course I can always recover some of my initial investment in the common stock or wait it out to see if the stock bounces back and I can recover that unrealized loss, where as with the call option I'm out possibly the entire investment (depends on a variety of factors I'm not going to cover, I'm just trying to highlight one of the main trade offs b/w common stock and options). These are just a couple of reasons why using options for exposure to an individual stock as opposed to common can be beneficial. There are obviously other reasons why they might be preferable as well as other trade offs besides the ones listed above. That and my explanation of how they can help you manage risk is only from the standpoint of holding common stock vs buying call/put options for an equivalent amount of shares - there are a A LOT of ways in which options can help manage risk. In terms of tradercane, as I said above the only thing I would suggest is learning to use various combos (vertical spreads, calendar spreads, collars, risk reversals, ect.) to help fund part or all of your trades/limit the upfront premium you pay and to manage risk. I feel like the general perception is that Wall Street/hedge funds/ect. are net sellers of options so at some point you have to become familiar with and be able to execute strategies beyond just buying a call or a put if you want to be successful trading options.
Opened a short position in 6EZ5 (December Euro futures) on Monday. The payroll #'s have EUR/USD heading back towards the lows from March
I'm getting a house built and won't be able to lock in a loan until about February-March. How might this affect me? What type of rate hike on a 30 year fixed might I see?
I wouldn't worry about the Fed directly. Fed Funds is an overnight rate between banks. It has no direct bearing on the mortgage market. Your 30-year mortgage has a much greater correlation to the 10-year treasury market. The Fed can certainly impact things but the bond market moves without the Fed needing to act. For instance, 10-yr treasury has climbed 10 bps today and about 20 bps since Monday as it adjusts (currently 2.334%). http://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/what-causes-mortgage-interest-rates-to-move/ My best guess--but it is just a guess because I can't predict the future--is a range of 4.00-4.25% for your mortgage.
TVIX nearly destroyed my account once upon a time - it was when I first started trading/investing and thought I was hot shit/knew enough to succeed based on some success with my first few trades...how wrong I was. I will forever hate that security and all other VIX related exchange traded products outside of XIV (but looking back view it as maybe the best trade I ever made because it made me realize I did knew jack shit about trading and it forced me to learn, develop a process, ect.).
With bond yields on the rise, it seems that the market is seeing a December rate hike as an increasingly likely possibility. The 10-year Treasury note yield traded at a four-month high this week, trading above 2.3 percent. Since yields rise as prices fall, the recent move points to bond traders selling off current holdings in preparation for lower-priced bonds after a rate hike. "Everyone is pricing it in," Phillip Streible of RJO Futures said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." "I think that it's wildly anticipated that we'll see this rate hike on December 15, 16," after theFederal Reserve's two-day meeting. However, one trader remains very skeptical that the Fed will raise itsfederal funds rate targetin December. "Lucy's going to pull the football out from under Charlie Brown again. How many times do we have to see this?" Larry McDonald, head of U.S. macro strategy at Societe Generale, said Wednesday. Read MoreBob Doll: How I'm playing the Fed rate hike McDonald points to the Fed's history of pushing back rate hike expectations in June and again in September as evidence that a similar situation will play out. Key challenges in considering a rate rise include a stronger U.S. dollar, falling commodities prices and trouble in emerging markets, McDonald said. He believes that when the time comes to assess monetary policy, the same problems that plagued the market in August will return. "That's impacted the Fed's policy path, the path has been vetoed by economic risk outside the United States and that's probably going to play out again," he said. "That brings back credit risk, then we get a leg down in the market, then once again the Fed gets put in a box." Nonetheless, Streible is betting on a December hike. "There's a whole number of things that could set off and delay the rate hike," Streible said."But I think it's just so baked in, the Fed has to strike now or forever hold their peace." Similarly, macro investor Mark Dow told CNBC on Wednesday that the Fed "would like us to have our expectations converge" on a December hike. "The data would have to be pretty bad to knock them off of that." According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders foresee a 68 percent chance of a December move.
Has anybody here tried investing in lendingclub (the site not the stock)? Was thinking about loaning some money out there. The risks seem fairly obvious but it seems like a semi safe 5-6% if you want to play it that way.
I have a friend at work that has been successful at it. He set a few criteria about which loans he would take and I think he's gotten around 11% return.
I looked at Betterment and TD and ended up opening up an IRA with TD. I started with $1200 and since added $200 a week the last 3 weeks and will do so for the rest of this year. I went 40/40/20 based off of your suggestion and other than today, it has fared well. How do I make money off of these ETF's because when looking at the 52 week high, it is only $5 more than where I bought in? Do I just continue to buy shares of these funds at different price points and hold on to them until I retire? I almost wish I had went with Betterment as I have more questions now than when I started, especially after spending hours and hours reading online.
I have had a lending club account for about 5-6 years now. My overall rate of return over that period is 7.13% a year. I don't have a strategy or anything like that but just let the algorithm pick the notes for you. Its not worth your time to try and pick better than the algorithm nor will you do any better. Overall I like the concept but after paying taxes etc im not sure its a great investment or not but its fun and I learned a lot from it. One thing to consider is that your money is tied up for 3-5 years depending on what term of loans you lend for. That could be a good thing or a bad thing ... it forces you to save but you can't get that cash back quickly (There is a secondary market but I don't think its liquid at all).
Yes if you just keep contributing weekly or monthly to your account and have it autoinvest you will be extremely pleased with the results when you retire. The ETF's will appreciate in price over time (its an IRA so you have a long enough time horizon to say that confidently) and you will collect dividends. What you are doing is not that much different than Betterment. The only thing you will need to do for maintenance is to rebalance your account about once a year. That is, after a years passes it is likely that your 40/40/20 will be something like 35/50/15 (making those numbers up) and you can make 3 trades or so and get it back to where you have 40/40/20. What kind of questions do you have? The FAQ site at Wealthfront.com has a lot of good info also. https://pages.wealthfront.com/faq/
Anyone with recommendations on how to allocate my 401K? I'm 28 and below is the options, my current weighting, and my ROR history. Any recommendations I would greatly appreciate. Also, should I be doing pre-tax or post-tax or mix? I currently do 10% pre-tax and have a 5% company match. I didn't do much research when doing this weighting, so I appreciate some experts' help.
I think you look pretty good, wouldn't change much. Not sure about the pre or post tax question as I don't see info on it in your post?
Why do you have money in a money market fund (prime market fund)? I'd put that money in a small cap, mid cap or international fund. I don't even care where. Just invest it instead of trying to make 0.1% on it.
Passed series 7 my first try and fucking failed the 66 by one question on first attempt, was so pissed.