Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. texasraider

    texasraider thanks
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    I don't know. I already closed it. But that sounds about right.

    And the reason it's that much is because that's how mortgages work.
     
  2. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Then we all need to become landlords if we can pull in $1100 more a month in rent than our mortgage for the home.
     
  3. RockHardJawn39

    RockHardJawn39 #FranklinOUT
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    That's why people rent out houses....
     
  4. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Soooo as fun as this discussion is, I'm going off topic.

    Considering buying Disney right now. Thoughts?

    My reasoning: It would seem to be a relatively safe stock even in a normal year, but this isn't a normal year. People might forget that in addition to all of the Disney landscape, Disney also owns or partly owns ESPN, Pixar, Lucasfilm, Marvel and the Muppets.

    Back to my reason for buying now.... movies. There is a not insignificant chance that in this calendar year Disney will break several box office records only to again break those very same records 6 months later. Avengers 2 will likely pass $200mil in the opening weekend, and more than $1bil before it leaves theaters. 6 months later, Star Wars may rewrite box office recordbooks. Factor in all the merchandise and potentially even some theme parks down the road, and that $4B Lucasfilm deal may look super cheap in the near future. On top of all that, there are 2 pixar films set to come out.

    Disney isn't cheap, it's up 35% YOY, and most of the above is probably already priced in, but with no technical data whatsoever to backup this claim I just have a feeling that it will be a good several years for Disney. As a random guy on the internet, you know I'm trustworthy. I recommend mortgaging your house (or rent money) on this tip.
     
  5. Shock Linwood

    Shock Linwood Well-Known Member
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    I've tried unsuccessfully to change the topic but they are relentless.

    I like Disney. I am always leery of buying a stock at its all-time high but I like your reasoning. All of their franchises are winners, the new movies are going to be blockbusters, they are constantly raising rates at their parks and related ancillary services (and the economy remains strong enough to support them), etc. Look at the chart for the last 5 years (as I'm sure you have). Not many companies their size with that kind of trajectory. Very impressive.

    Its not for me but I think its a really good buy.

    Keep us updated.
     
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  6. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Transferred the funds to my online brokerage today, should clear by Wednesday and then I will buy. Most likely going all Disney. Considering ETSY, just because I like getting in shortly after IPOs, but I just don't know enough about it yet.
     
  7. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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  8. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    how do you refer someone on robin hood?
     
  9. RU-Omega Potato

    RU-Omega Potato We play 'til the gun you crotchety old bitch.
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    Rumor has it Uncle Carl (Icahn) likes this kind of talk.
     
  10. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Avenger crushed expectations at foreign box office. Expectations were $150-165M and it topped $200M. DIS up about 2% today while my funds are waiting to clear.

    Over the weekend I had a new thought. Disney is huge, so even if both Star Wars and A vengers were to top $2B (doubtful), it wouldn't move the needle a ton. To more directly profit, you could invest in AMC or IMAX or something similar. Theater chains see huge boosts with blockbuster movies. Thoughts?

    Its going to be one of the biggest box office years in a really long time, buying one of those could turn a great profit over the next 12 months. Disney is a buy and hold forever type stock. Somebody talk me into one or the other
     
  11. JoeySmalls

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    Disney brings in 600 million a month on ESPN. Thanks to cord cutters some cable companies are wanting to offer packages without ESPN.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/102573746

    I am not so sure ESPN will have 97 million subscribers in 5 years.
     
  12. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    I had the same reasoning for going into Disney around this time 2 years ago. I made a small amount of money, but if you're hunting for profits in the short-term it may be a little disappointing in that regard.
     
  13. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Where can I find some profits? I'm in shipping right now, but need something in the near term while the industry returns...
     
  14. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    The only money I've got left in the market are with my investments that have been losing me money, or haven't found a good enough time to sell. I'm staying on the sidelines for now, but am keeping an eye on companies that have been aggressively buying back shares of their stock in the last few years. A lot of desperation in the markets these days.
     
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  15. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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  16. yesman

    yesman Well-Known Member
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    That's interesting. I guess I'd question how often people are sending a package to someone within the same region. Craigslist comes to mind but people often like to deal with those purchases in person so they can inspect the goods and bargain.
     
  17. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Found one. XCO. Wilbur ross. Likes it
     
  18. Hogview

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    I think it has to do more with just delivering a certain item to someone. Like I need to send you some golf clubs, but I don't want to put them in a box, take them to a fedex, and spend $50 on it. I can get someone on the app that's traveling to your area, give him $20, and let him drop them off on his way.
     
  19. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
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    It sounds like trying to apply Uber to a courier service.
     
  20. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    My thoughts. How is this new thing going to take away from existing small/regional courier services?
     
  21. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    I don't think it will. It's a good concept though. Here's the website https://www.roadie.com/
     
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  22. Jax Teller

    Jax Teller Well-Known Member
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    Movie theaters seem like a bad investment to me. But that's being said without doing a lot of research into them. Just seems like they are empty a lot and seeing them close down a bunch. Guess what I'm saying is, I would have to have someone do some heavy research to talk me into those.
     
  23. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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  24. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    There's already an industry that does this for large items (shipping wars...there is also a TV show about it on AMC). for roadie to be successful, they will have to nickel and dime their way to a profit. A very very small profit at that. They'll have to compete with other existing courier services by getting people to pay a premium for having it shipped 'now'. Come to think about it, there isn't any way possible to turn a profit.
     
  25. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
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    This concept seems more focused on small items like a flat screen TV or a set of golf clubs. The type of shippers on that show are going for bigger items and charging a shit load. If I were to sign up with the app and traveling down to Florida, I could go on the app and see if anyone on the way down needs something shipped. If I have room for a set of clubs or something in my car, I could pick it up and make like $15-20 and the app would make $5-6.
     
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  26. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Exactly. $5 per Gig is peanuts. 20,000 gigs for $100k is a tough deal to scale.
     
  27. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
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    Back when I was in business litigation, I was doing some research into one of many outright fraudulent schemes that Chesapeake was using to deprive it mineral interest owners of a substantial portions of royalties owed. Chesapeake is the only O&G company, to my knowledge, that employs the schemes, and it has enjoyed an inflated value due to an illegal competitive advantage for the last several years, without which Chesapeake would be in bad shape relative to its competitors.

    Anyway, the plaintiffs I was working with put the matter on hold for strategic reasons, and I later moved firms to become a purely transactional attorney. These prospective plaintiffs are starting to move forward with their suits (at least with some of the allegations), and lawsuits like the one attached are starting to be filed. Shit is going to hit the fan for Chesapeake and rightfully so. The scheme described in the petition is apparently employed with respect to all mineral interest owners all over the country. Things are going to unravel for Chesapeake.
     

    Attached Files:

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  28. texasraider

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    There's a reason why lessors I work with put clauses in the lease that if it's assigned to CHK or any subsidiary, the lease is void.

    And it's not always due to the royalty payments being shorted.

    AEP has adopted most of the shady practices.
     
  29. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    Damn Twitter is taking a bath.
     
  30. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Twitter starting to look more like Myspace than Facebook
     
  31. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    I'm going to be a little more risky than usual, it's just money after all....

    Instead of Disney, I'm going to buy AMC theaters, with the intention of holding until right after they release results for whatever quarter includes holidays 2015. So, roughly a 9-12 month hold trying purely to capitalize on the ridiculous box office year we are about to have. First time I've bought any substantial amount of anything with a relatively short time frame. :ohnoes:

    Going to buy half tomorrow, half Thursday (earnings is after-hours tomorrow).
     
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  32. Room 15

    Room 15 Mi equipo esta Los Tigres
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    I am a complete believer still, but the growth and revenue numbers don't exactly give you warm and fuzzies
     
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  33. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    GDP woof

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ld-history-prevents-total-collapse-us-economy

    Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy

    [​IMG]
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/29/2015 09:31 -0400





    one thing every Wall Street economist desperately needs) and precisely in line with the Atlanta Fed forecast which we brought attention to in early March, confirming yet again that US stocks no longer reflect any fundamentals but merely Fed and global liquidity injections, there is something far more disturbing under the surface of today's GDP report.

    Inventories.

    Specifically, the $121.9 billion increase in private, mostly nonfarm, inventories in the first quarter.

    Cutting to the punchline, this was the biggest inventory build in history.

    [​IMG]



    Another punchline: in Q1 2015, the US economy rose by a paltry $6.3 billion in nominal terms to $17.710 trillion.

    Here is how the total GDP growth compares to just the increase in inventories, which as we wrote earlier this week, is the primary reason why the world is now gripped in a global deflationary wave.

    [​IMG]



    In other words, if US inventories, already at record high levels, and with the inventory to sales rising to great financial crisis levels, had not grown by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

    Or -3% rounded down.

    Which means that as this massive inventory overhang is cleared out, and there has been $1.1 trillion in consistent inventory build in the past 3 years, US GDP will be pressured to decline with every passing quarter, or else the moment of deflationary rapture when everyone is forced to liquidate and/or dump this inventory at the same time, will result in a monetary supernova, which will leave the Fed with no choice but to literally paradrop money on the continental US.
     
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  34. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
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    Is RobinHood still the preferred method for trading by this thread? I'm thinking about getting in the game with TSLA.
     
  35. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    AMC down 5% after slight earnings miss yesterday. That quarter ended in March, just before release of Furious 7. Based on this year's movie lineup I'd expect beats in all of the next 3, maybe 4 quarters. I'll be buying more today.
     
  36. texasraider

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    thanks to whoever recommended LNCO. Up almost 25% plus a dividend.
     
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  37. CTownND

    CTownND Well-Known Member
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    More of a savings then investing question... But is there any reason why I would put money in a Bank of America savings account instead of a GE savings account? My BoA account gets 0.08% interest right now and looks like GE savings is 1.05% - I've just always had the bank savings account linked to my debit card but looks like I am just losing money by not keeping my balance at GE, no?

    https://www.gecapitalbank.com/savings-products/online-savings.html
     
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  38. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    To answer your question, IMO at least, no... there's no reason not to go with the higher interest rate. Nowadays, it's just so quick and easy to transfer money to a different account that it makes sense to search for the highest rate. Even at a separate bank, you could probably transfer the cash over within 3 days.
     
  39. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Seadrill up 11% to $14.85 today based (I guess) on analyst upgrade.

    To the guy who claimed there were "tons" of better options than SDRL, its now up 27% over the last 5 days, 44% over the last month and 66% since its low 7 weeks ago. Hard to top that.

    Of course, now the question becomes, is the turnaround real or is it time to cash out?? What say you TMB?
     
  40. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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  41. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Really wish my robin good acct had been approved when it was at 8.58. Now I'm hesitant to buy when it's already had a rebound.
     
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  42. I'll Give You Asthma

    I'll Give You Asthma speak hate, get a plate, eat cake...bitch
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    So Yellen just came out and said "Credit spreads are too low... equity valuations are quite high... there are potential dangers there"

    You just now figure that one out?!

    [​IMG]
     
  43. Joe Withabee

    Joe Withabee PS I have sifulus
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    Oil prices traded higher on Wednesday after hitting new 2015 highs as the the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude stocks fell last week for the first time since the week ending Jan. 2, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose.

    Brent crude was up 62 cents at $68.14 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT (1554 GMT), after hitting a new 2015 peak of $69.63. U.S. crude traded 63 cents higher at $61.03 a barrel, having risen as high as $62.58 after EIA reported the inventory data.

    Crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

    Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 12,000 barrels, EIA said.

    Gasoline stocks rose by 401,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 867,000-barrel gain.

    Read MoreNorth Dakota town evacuated after oil train derails

    Oil prices rose more than $1 earlier on Wednesday, continuing a month-long rally that has been supported by a weaker dollar and a disruption to crude exports from Libya. The price of oil was up about 2.5 percent amid news of an oil train derailment in North Dakota. At least five cars were on fire in a derailment that involved a train with 109 cars in total. No injuries were reported.

    Oil bulls have pushed prices higher this week, after a rally of 20 percent for Brent and 25 percent for U.S. crude prices in April, despite indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries may keep production unchanged at current high levels at a meeting next month.
     
  44. Shock Linwood

    Shock Linwood Well-Known Member
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    So. It sucks.
    -
    Been a big fan of this stock and I've been beating the drum since last year BUT I did not buy unfortunately. Probably got a little greedy trying to time that bottom perfectly. The stock is even more explosive than I thought. Just a trickle of good news and this thing is up 75% in a flash. There is a large short interest out there and you can just feel the short squeeze with the uptick in oil.

    I'm definitely not going to buy right now though. Will remain patient.

    With WTI above 60 and Brent closing in on 70 the N.American frack crews are already lining up to restart their wells. Its profitable even at this level. Those guys are hemorrhaging money and they need to get back to pumping, especially the smaller companies. Oil price has a ceiling in place...as the price goes up, more supply from fracking will come on line. The supply is just sitting there waiting for a viable price to come along and pull it out of the ground.

    Things are setting up nice for this fall/winter. Driving season will be over (less gas used = buildup of oil), refineries will shut down for maintenance (less need for oil = buildup of oil), Iranian oil hopefully will come online (buildup of oil) and hopefully the frackers will be in full production swing with what should be ~$75 oil (buildup of oil). The last part is key b/c the frackers don't unwind their production fast as we saw this past winter so the supply should be big. At least that's what I'm hoping and banking on. This upcoming crash in the price of oil could be bigger than '14.
     
  45. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    Completely off topic here, but for the married TMBers in this thread, how much did you spend on the engagement ring as a percentage of gross salary or take home pay? I know I know "spend whatever you want", but I'm just looking for some ranges here. 10% of gross pay? 1 months take home pay?
     
  46. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
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    That last section is interesting and makes sense. You really think oil could fall by 50% again though, down to $30 a barrel or so?
     
  47. texasraider

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    I spent 1.5% because my wife is awesome. She picked out the ring.

    /lookatmepost
     
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  48. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    I always thought women were joking about candy machine rings.
     
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  49. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    The whole % of income to spend on a ring seems pretty dumb to me (sorry if i offend anyone). Just buy her 1) something she will be happy with 2) that you can afford. Reaching financially for something like an engagement ring doesn't make sense to me. You can always buy more jewelry later and any woman who is not satisfied with what you give her is probably going to be a headache in a few years anyway.

    Spend 5-10k if you can afford it. If not spend what you are comfortable with.

    I know diamonds are about the C's, but girls seem to like the Carats most. No one has ever looked at my wifes ring (including her) and said "oh wow, look at the clarity."
     
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