Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington Football TeamAtlanta United

    My main reason I haven't taken or started to work towards the GMAT for the last 3 years. I'll dominate the fuck out of the math section, just like I did on the SATs.....Verbal, grammar, anologies, etc.... :redcard:
     
  2. Where Eagles Dare

    Where Eagles Dare The Specialist Show On Earth
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesWashington Football TeamAtlanta United

    What the shit is happening today?
     
  3. Frank Rizzo

    Frank Rizzo Tell dem pigs to fuck off
    Donor

    This guy has been on fire lately.
     
  4. RoyalShocker

    RoyalShocker But I don't wanna be a Nazi
    Donor TMB OG

    Bad news bears, man
     
  5. Frank Rizzo

    Frank Rizzo Tell dem pigs to fuck off
    Donor

    the DAX (german exchange) was down %4.5 yesterday. Not sure why, but we are reacting to that.
     
  6. RoyalShocker

    RoyalShocker But I don't wanna be a Nazi
    Donor TMB OG

    + poor housing and unemployment reports.
     
  7. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    European banks are in the shitter and caused the market to open down. Then 30 minutes later the Philly Fed Index came out and it was ass horrible (forecast 2.0 actual -30.7, last month as 3.2 ... >0 signifies expansion / <0 signifies contraction of manufacturing in the NE). I saw the 10 year trading inside of 2.0% and is now hovering around 2.06%. Crazy. The risk off/fear trade is on.
     
  8. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsSouth Carolina GamecocksHouston AstrosDallas CowboysSeattle Kraken

    Philly Fed index report was fucking horrific

    also, should i definitely take the GMAT while still in school? thinking about doing it my last semester in school since the scores are only good for 5 years
     
  9. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    My funds became available this morning. Right on time! Just bought a bunch of shit. Got PETS at $9.60, which is great.
     
  10. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    GMAT guys, keep in mind the new Integrated Reasoning section starts 2012. Not sure if that's in this year's prep books yet or not.
     
  11. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsSouth Carolina GamecocksHouston AstrosDallas CowboysSeattle Kraken

    What's great about PETS? Their prices are more expensive than my vet's prices.
     
  12. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsSouth Carolina GamecocksHouston AstrosDallas CowboysSeattle Kraken

    After some quick friarjuggs research, that looks like a very good thing for people who have great data analysis experience from internship experiences.
     
  13. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    Just like them at that price, which is about their 2-year low. They just posted a great quarter of revenue and profit growth.
     
  14. Hogview

    Hogview Fan of the Green board, Razorbacks
    Donor TMB OG
    Arkansas RazorbacksTiger WoodsPGA

    This, they have been losing their niche
     
  15. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
    Donor

    People selling off getting ready for 3 day weekend.
     
  16. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    Huh? They reported sales declines ($73.6 mil vs $74.4 mil last yr) and EPS declines ($0.22 vs. $0.32 last yr).

    Analyst Report C & P:

    FQ1 results are reflective of an increasingly competitive backdrop, with EPS falling
    short of low expectations. The competitive threat from brick & mortar and other
    online retailers has forced further pricing discounts and increased advertising spend,
    much to the detriment of margins. Average cost to acquire new customers, which is
    a key operating metric, increased 11% yoy despite an already weak year-ago comp
    of +21%. While PETS' current valuation and the company's capital position
    mitigate some downside risk, we see little reason to own the stock at current levels
    and maintain our Underweight rating.

    -FQ1 results impacted by increasing competition & discounting. FQ1 sales
    were $73.6 MM (-1.1% yoy), which straddled PJC ($73.1 MM) and consensus
    ($74.1 MM) expectations. New customer sales of $17.0 MM exceeded our $16.4
    MM estimate, due to higher than expected advertising spend. Gross margin of
    32.77% was 173 bps lower than our estimate, primarily attributable to aggressive
    product discounting. PETS repurchased ~1.1 MM shares at an average cost of
    $12.67, spending nearly $13.6 MM. In spite of aggressive share repurchases, EPS
    of $0.22 was $0.05 lower than our $0.27 estimate and $0.02 lower than consensus
    of $0.24, due to weaker gross margins and increased advertising spend. PETS
    finished FQ1 with ~$2.96/share in cash, investments and auction rate securities,
    down from $3.23/share reported on 3/31/2011.

    -Estimates move lower on gross margins & advertising. We are adjusting our
    estimates following weaker than expected FQ1 EPS performance, with our model
    now incorporating a more negative margin impact from 1) aggressive pricing
    discounts and 2) increased advertising spend. While we believe that increased
    advertising expenditures may help support relatively flat yoy sales growth over
    the next several years, the aforementioned changes lower our FY12 and FY13
    EPS estimates to $0.71 and $0.72, down from $0.82 and $0.81 previously.

    -Maintain Underweight rating, lowering PT to $10/share. While we feel that
    valuation and the company's capital position will mitigate some downside risk to
    the stock, we see little reason to own PETS at current levels given the increased
    competitive landscape and our expectations for a more challenging advertising
    backdrop during 2H11 and 1H12. Importantly, disappointing trends in key
    operational metrics continue, including average cost to acquire new customers
    (+11.2% yoy), new customer order size (-1.4%) and average order size (-2.4%
    yoy). Lastly, while new customers grew +2.7% in the quarter, we note that a
    14.3% increase in annual advertising spend was needed to support this growth.
     
  17. Llama

    Llama New Member
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersColorado Avalance

    What's the occasion?
     
  18. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    August in the Hamptons.
     
  19. Capstone 88

    Capstone 88 Going hard in the paint
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators2pac

    I don't know. Probably October. I just started playing with the idea a few days ago.
     
  20. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    I meant quarter-to-quarter. Not '10 vs. '11. I was looking at Dec '10 - Jun '11.
     
  21. Llama

    Llama New Member
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersColorado Avalance

    Wal-Mart the only Dow stock in the black :americafuckyeah:
     
  22. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    That is just seasonality.
     
  23. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    By the way, I know you've been contemplating an online MBA, or other alternatives to facilitate a move to FL (if I remember correctly). Florida has one of the better MSF programs, which would be a cheaper, shorter option compared to a full-time MBA. Here's some info, and some of their placement history:
    http://msfhq.com/category/d-f/university-of-florida/
    http://warrington.ufl.edu/fire/programs/msf/placement/history.asp
     
  24. Halberstram

    Halberstram Droppin' science like Galileo dropped the orange
    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsAtlanta United

    I went to UGA for grad school, and I know they didn't care at all about the writing portion. It was all verbal and math, heard some other schools were the same.
     
  25. Capstone 88

    Capstone 88 Going hard in the paint
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators2pac

    I appreciate it, penny packer. The reason I was going to move to FSU is due to their top 10 masters in risk management and insurance. It's looking like I got the job in Atlanta so now Georgia State is going to be my go to.
     
  26. DutchTiger

    DutchTiger Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Congrats...where's the job? What firm?
     
  27. Capstone 88

    Capstone 88 Going hard in the paint
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators2pac

    Peachtree Special Risk. I'm pretty sure Atlanta in Buckhead, but I could end up in South Florida.
     
  28. hoebekec

    hoebekec Fan of: Michigan State and all Detroit pro sports
    Donor
    Michigan State SpartansDetroit Red WingsDetroit LionsTiger WoodsDetroit PistonsArsenal

    Any recommendations for ETF's? I'm already deep in SPY and QQQ, I'm looking for another long-term either growth or emerging markets ETF. I'll be in it long to LOOOOOOOONG term, so some volitilty doesn't concern me a whole lot and I figure now is looking like a decent time to be getting further into some long term holdings.

    Also, do I just ride out the beating I'm taking on C or do I cut my losses? This was one that I thought I was willing to take the ride for a long time, but I'm down a shade over 30% and I don't really see anything promising to make me think I'll ever get back to even. I'm leaning towards sticking it out, but contemplating biting that bullet and finding something else to try to make some of that back with.

    Just for some reference, my holdings are(in order of $ invested) QQQ, SPY, DD, C, DE, VTG and MIG. I just got out of RGR after being up 88%, so I've got a fair amount that I'm looking to reinvest somewhere. I may even look at getting back into RGR if they fall back to a price I like them at. While I plan to let it sit there, I will pull out when I'm up big and reinvest as I see an opportunity. I would say I've been quite conservative so far, I also have stuck with a few stocks that I'm familiar/comfortable with, but I'm certainly looking at it in the long term and figure I need to branch out a bit.
     
  29. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsSouth Carolina GamecocksHouston AstrosDallas CowboysSeattle Kraken

    How long term are you talking here?
     
  30. hoebekec

    hoebekec Fan of: Michigan State and all Detroit pro sports
    Donor
    Michigan State SpartansDetroit Red WingsDetroit LionsTiger WoodsDetroit PistonsArsenal

    It depends, I'd probably say I intend on being in anywhere from 10-25 years depending on the economy. RGR was one I looked at that way, but sometimes when you're up big, you get out while you can and look to get back in or at something different.
     
  31. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    Sorry that VTG has been so ugly. The levered oil trade has obviously not worked and VTG is the extreme of that. I think there is still value there (RIG acquiring a competitor 1-2 weeks ago implies the same) but it either has to come via buyout or better market.
     
  32. hoebekec

    hoebekec Fan of: Michigan State and all Detroit pro sports
    Donor
    Michigan State SpartansDetroit Red WingsDetroit LionsTiger WoodsDetroit PistonsArsenal

    Well, I got into VTG at $1.36, so I think there is plenty to be made there. I could make 30-40% and it still won't be NEAR its book value.
     
  33. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    thinking about going after a region or a broad index? longer term maybe take a lil more risk if you like one region in particular. just shooting from the hip there seems to be a lot of talk about turkey these days. they seem somewhat well positioned to end up a leader in the eastern european/middle eastern countries ...

    this article may be useful, i like SeekingAlpha.com or IndexUniverse.com for these sort of ETF questions. this guy makes an argument for buying small cap emerging market ETFs cause they are heavily weighted towards consumer staples/discretionary and health care ...

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/288163-the-emerging-markets-in-emerging-markets
     
  34. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    some dude from Raymond James was on CNBC today, issued a strong buy rating for BAC and said that JPM rumor was complete BS ...

    gold bubble anyone?
     
  35. southside

    southside Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG
    Texas LonghornsSouth Carolina GamecocksHouston AstrosDallas CowboysSeattle Kraken

    don't think it's a bubble, more of just a correction. it was so overbought the last few weeks with all of the flight to safety buyers
     
  36. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    rabid whatcha think of the HY market these days? still a good time for ETFs/Mutuals? still one of my favs in the 401k
     
  37. Frank Rizzo

    Frank Rizzo Tell dem pigs to fuck off
    Donor

    Anyone have any information on OTC markets? Have access, or know anything about them in general?
     
  38. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    i don't think you need to approach it any differently than listed stocks, if you feel good about the company go ahead and buy. just know that there can be liquidity risk depending on how thinly traded the stock is. also, companies on the OTC markets tend to "riskier" because there are a lot of start up companies that may not be profitable, or old companies that are doing poorly/bankrupt. that's not to say you can't invest in "blue chip" OTC companies, a lot of foreign stuff trades OTC, like Hyundai or Nintendo
     
  39. Frank Rizzo

    Frank Rizzo Tell dem pigs to fuck off
    Donor

    Thanks, im looking more for information about OTC derivatives and how much money you need to access the OTC markets. I know its in the millions but not sure how many. Also wondering if there is a ticker tape of trades for derivatives. I know there is a OTC bulletin board for equity trades but thats not really what im looking for.
     
  40. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    oh snap ... well i don't know anything about that but if a bloomberg terminal can find it we got one of those at work :idk:
     
  41. Frank Rizzo

    Frank Rizzo Tell dem pigs to fuck off
    Donor

    Ive tried google but cant come up with much. I dont know much about the bloomberg terminal.
     
  42. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

    Would never be allowed. BAC is already over the FDIC's cap on % of nation's deposits (the cap is 10%). JPM is at ~9%.
     
  43. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    yeah we just use ours for otc equities and fixed income so i'm not sure we'd have that kind of service
     
  44. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
    Donor TMB OG
    Minnesota Golden Gophers

    More attractive than it was but equities look cheaper to me. However, at least HY bonds give you a coupon so I could make an argument for it and it makes sense as a diversifier.
     
  45. RU-Omega Potato

    RU-Omega Potato We play 'til the gun you crotchety old bitch.
    Donor
    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsNew York YankeesDallas Cowboys

    I'm gonna go out on a limb, abandon technicals, and say AAPL is a good short play.

    :justsayin:
     
  46. Joe Louis

    Joe Louis no thank you turkish, i'm sweet enough
    Donor TMB OG
    Michigan WolverinesDetroit Tigers

    :shocked:
     
  47. h.e.pennypacker

    h.e.pennypacker Industrialist Philanthropist Bicyclist
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago BearsWu-tang

  48. Halberstram

    Halberstram Droppin' science like Galileo dropped the orange
    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta FalconsAtlanta United

    Steve Jobs resigns as Apple CEO, can't be good news for his overall health. Wonder how much the stock will fall.
     
  49. Capstone 88

    Capstone 88 Going hard in the paint
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators2pac

    It's down 5% in after hours
     
  50. Fred Thompson

    Fred Thompson No fan of?

    If AAPL drops pretty "low" tomorrow I think that I am going to purchase a few 60 day contracts and try to clean up. Thoughts?