Sounds like a more fun use of their money than playing the market so that they'll be able to give it to ungrateful grandchildren.
Your organization To each their own. I would do the same thing as him, but it would give me anxiety thinking about it.
I for one am shocked that a guy who was shorting the s&p for 6+ months before the election lost money in a post election run up.
He did, to an extent. The figure is based entirely on sources and no actual dates, data, or disclosures that I can see. The article also fails to mention that Soros disclosed put options on about 4 million shares of the s&p on June 30. His bearishness well pre-dated Trump's election, despite his political leanings.
I'd be curious to know how much he lost donating to Hillary and all the down ballot democratic elections.
Cost of doing business for someone of that ilk. I know what you are saying but I think it's just like the average Joe contributing $200 to their candidate of preference.
I closed on my home renovation loan yesterday to do the same to my own house. A good realtor would help you tremendously. You need to be aware of the municipalities and their own zoning in town. 99% of the good deals have been scavenged since the last downturn and everyone is riding high right now. I'm rehabbing mine and then we'll live here for another year or two, I don't want to buy in today's market with this high water mark if I don't have to. I live in un-incorporated DeKalb and non-CoA, the Atlanta border is 100 feet west of my home. Location alone saved me $10-15k by not requiring an arborist or architectural floorplans. Come over to the home owner's thread and tag Juan, he just did a flip in North Atlanta. Feel free to pm me, I'd love for this to turn into my real job so I can leave corporate America behind.
I think we are in a housing bubble and that home values are pretty close to being peaked out. I'm not saying the bubble is going to burst anytime soon, but I do think the prices will generally level off/drop until the capital structure of the economy becomes less distorted. Interest rates are going up, which will drive down buyer/remodel demand. The increased rates will also wreak havoc on the lower stages of home production (raw materials, services and other costs associated with home construction and remodels). Those costs have been bid up over the last decade due to inflated demand largely brought about by artificially cheap/easy credit. I also think we are approaching a recession due to the distorted capital structure of the economy and inflated prices across many sectors. If history is an indicator, when we enter a recession (or worse, if the housing bubble bursts), the prices of condos will be hit the hardest. I think condos will be hit even harder in this cycle because of the crazy supply of multifamily housing, especially high-end urban apartments, that have been constructed over the last decade. I live and practice law in Texas, but have closed at least 8 apartment construction projects in the greater Atlanta area just in the last 3 years (and dozens elsewhere). It's no secret that apartment inventory (including those currently in the pipeline) is way over saturated. Just my 2 cents based on my observation.
To follow up on your first question, though, my advice would be to make sure you have a solid general contractor (with a rolodex filled with great subcontractors) on your team. Most home flipping projects I see generally involve some kind of partnership/joint venture between a general contractor with a carried interest and a financier (one partner's contribution being labor and project management, and the other partner's contribution being cash). The waterfall of the net proceeds from the flip generally goes first to the financier at a higher percentage until he gets his money back and, often, some preferred return. Thereafter, the general contractor will get a higher percentage of the proceeds (the promoted/carried interest).
Solid contributions, you're a damn good dawg, Stagger. I pretty much agree with it all. Especially the nearing recession and saturation point. New developments in Atlanta are offering up to 3 months concessions for a new lease. We seem to have hit a ceiling on rent growth. Benefit is we still have positive absorption and most new construction is in town and will stay in demand. The suburbs and B/C housing took the heaviest hits last cycle for multifamily in Atlanta. Atlanta is just starting to market pre construction condos. Fortunately this cycle, we only have one spec office building as opposed to a half a dozen and spec condo inventory at the moment. Look up IRR waterfalls to see the promotes for the JV mentioned above. It's how someone who contributes minimal capital walks away with the lionshare of the profits on great deals. These guys at Property Matrix are pretty good and easy to understand. http://www.propertymetrics.com/blog...y-waterfall-models-in-commercial-real-estate/
I don't think we're nearing a recession but I do expect a significant correction in the markets. Stock prices are severely inflated on pure sentiment but earnings haven't kept up. At some point, the fundamentals will take over and we'll see a price drop. But as long as the employment figures are this strong, I don't see us entering a recession. I wish Trump would fuck off with the ACA stuff and focus on passing corporate tax reform asap, and provide a repatriation holiday so that our firms can bring home the trillions we have sitting overseas and put it to work.
These employment numbers are a facade though. We still haven't come close to replacing all of the jobs lost since the recession. These newly-created jobs have been almost entirely part-time or contract labor jobs (95% in fact according to a Harvard/Princeton study), with most being in food and beverage service (waiters/servers) or the public sector (so no new wealth creation). Also, the rate of people with multiple jobs is at the highest it has been at least this century, so a lot of these "new jobs" are being double counted. Finally, unemployment rates aside, we are currently at the lowest work force participation rate since the Carter administration. Couple that with incredibly low personal saving rates, record household debt levels, and rising inflation (not CPI) and interest rates, and we have a problem.
eh not really. can nitpick things, but the economy has come a long way since the recession but theres lots of warts that still need addressing. labor force participation gets overblown, its half a real problem half related to demographics(boomers retiring etc). would be curious the demographics of the majority of people who are dropping out of the work force, whether it's rural blue collar types or what. the only objectively wrong claim is the public sector thing, Obamas public sector jobs # is lower than when he took office from GWB. Spoiler where things get interesting isn't when identifying the problems or the problems with the economy. its how you think best to address them. thats when the stew gets going.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-how-to-invest-10k/ Read this a couple days ago and diverted some of the domestic stock in my 401(k) into emerging markets. Dear diary.
idk man, this talk of 'border taxes' and shit. plus the large caps are always one tweet away from hand wringing small-mid caps are the way to go, AMERICA FIRST!
today may be the day gents BREAKING: Dow futures rise 100 points, putting 20,000 in sight as Trump rally reignites
So, in general, how are you guys playing this? 1. Big multinationals with billions in cash sitting overseas that will repatriate and declare a special dividend, buy back shares, or invest in production? 2. Infrastructure stocks? Is it too late? Has everything been priced in? EXP (cement) has gone from $75 to $108 since the election. 3. Energy/oil stocks? tmbrules what do you think? Anything you like right now?
I got in IJH couple of months ago wish I had picked up more. Been looking at Simon Property Group(SPG), Bristol Meyers Squibb(BMY) Gilead (GILD) and William Sonama (WSM) not sure which way to go or pick up a little of a few... wish I snagged some CSX before it exploded
Short cycle, value add home flippers are begging for a real estate market correction. I'd love to scare off these HGTV newbies. Most flippers are safe. Guys who are starting a 12 month high end reno/flip or a 5 year subdivision play...might start getting queasy and pulling back. I agree apartments nationwide are concerningly hot from an investor standpoint. Most of that has to do with investor demand and cap rates and not actual market fundamentals. Market still looks great from supply/demand perspective. Locally, we are absorbing historically ridiculous amounts of apartment inventory and begging for more. At same time, home prices never been higher and appreciating 8-10% per year.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...uyer-has-options-insiders-asking-21-questions Spoiler '50 Cent' Volatility Buyer Has Options Insiders Asking 21 Questions More than $33 million in VIX calls that cost about $0.50 purchased year-to-date. People in markets just can't rap their heads around it. The CBOE Volatility Index, commonly known as the VIX, has closed below 15 for over 50 consecutive sessions and large speculators are short the measure by the most in 12 years -- but there's a steady, sizable source of demand for short-term options from a mystery buyer that will pay off if implied volatility jumps to between 19 and 24. A handful of industry insiders have noted the the approximate cost of the options is rather constant at a level the rap artist Curtis James Jackson III would likely appreciate. "Some of our client base has taken to calling this mystery buyer(s) '50 cent', as the selection of the VIX upside call seems somewhat arbitrary – as long as it is near month and costs about 50c," writes Pravit Chintawongvanich, head derivatives strategist at Macro Risk Advisors. The VIX spiked as much as 18 percent Monday to 12.53, but would still need to rise substantially for the calls -- according to the strategist, there's been over $33 million in purchased year-to-date -- to be in the money. It isn't very likely that these call options are being used to express an outright view on implied volatility, but rather to hedge another position that collects a fair bit of yield to offset all the money spent on premiums. But what's the other side of the book? Long fixed income? Short volatility? Long stocks? Is this one buyer, or multiple institutions? Is this a London Whale redux? To borrow from Mr. Jackson, there are at least 21 Questions about who's behind these trades and what they're up to.
i don't understand the following sentence in the economist: "If prices start to rise faster, pressure will mount on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates." For context, the sentences before this were talking about what if Trump does really well. Says the S&P is up. Business confidence is up etc. I'd think prices would usually increase due to an increased interest rate and a general increased inflation rate. If prices started to rise due to an increased interest rate and increase inflation and the general public couldn't keep up with the rising cost of goods and services, wouldn't the fed have to actually lower the interest rate?
Raising interest rates would slow the flow of money imo. People wouldn't be able to borrow as much and therefore not spend as much. They have it right.
why would a tariff equate to a rise in the dollar? I guess it has something to do with the fact that if we tax imports then other countries will react by increasing the cost of our goods and thus the overall effect is inflation or rising cost of goods?
Short term as a measure to counterbalance. They won't really increase the cost of goods as much as the dollar could buy more because it will also drive down their currency. Remember when it comes to China you can delve into a black hole. Their currency is manipulated so it's not transparent.
tmbrules do you have any pointers on where to get a basic level of understanding of options trading? I signed up for an IB demo account and
ultra basic level: think of selling options as selling insurance. Your dream scenario is that nothing goes wrong and you keep collecting the premiums. your nightmare scenario is any sort of hurricane or disaster. if you think a stock is going to go up, sell puts if you think a stock is going to go down, sell calls.
Can't find it now, but there was a really good article in the Economist yesterday about the need for a new "full employment" definition in the context of how our economy has evolved since the downturn.
I think the CBOE.com website is a great source of information. If I was allowed to open an account at IB I would, I think they are one of the better Brokers out there. Also, Options Express (it may have been bought out, not sure), and Think or Swim are good. Also, I'll give you as much free info as you want. Let me know an ill be glad to give you any advice or my opinion. http://www.cboe.com/learncenter/options-trading-basics.aspx http://www.cboe.com/strategies
So what you are looking at is what we would call a "delta" play ..... meaning a straight directional bet. You bought calls so you were expecting / hoping the stock would rise. Another way to trade options, and the way I trade them, is to turn it into a volatility play. Volatility can be described by a distribution curve very similar to a bell curve. In order to turn it into a volatility play you need to hedge your trade. Once you hedge your trade a call and put are the same thing (put call parity. Don't get caught up in the math behind it, the important thing to know is that once hedged a call and the put are the same thing.) Hedging properly Buy Call = sell stock Sell Call = buy stock Sell put = sell stock buy put = buy stock The key to the hedge is to determine how many shares of stock to buy or sell per option contract. This is easy to find out / calculate and its just the delta. I don't know the delta of the particular contract you bought, but for illustrative purposes say it was 50. So if you bought 5 contracts that would be the equivalent of 500 shares of stock. a 50 delta would mean to sell 50% of the stock, so to properly hedge your trade you would have needed to sell 250 shares of stock. You can then see how it would still be possible to make money even if the stock went down when you bought calls. That's the basics of volatility trade and I would say most, not all, professional options traders trade that way.