Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    It looks like AMC is trying to buy all the common stock of Carmike so yes your account would be funded at however many shares you have @ $33.

    On the second part, I'm just guessing that you're right about people betting on whether the deal with actually go through at $33/share
     
  2. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Why would anyone buy the stock for $33 plus commission fees when they know they won't make any profit?

    Selling for $31 is either they don't think it will go through, don't want to risk it or just would rather cash out for $31 now instead of waiting to be paid $33.
     
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  3. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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  4. Gallant Knight

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    Why
     
  5. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    Because the only way to make money is by speculating. There are no earnings or dividends. The only way to make money is for other people to believe it's a better investment.

    Gold is worth significantly less today than it was in 1980 when you factor in inflation.

    Eventually people will realize there is no real intrinsic value in gold. It's just paper money people think is worth something.
     
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  6. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    You're still speculating if you have earnings and dividends at your disposal. I'd almost argue there's too much information because it's treated as a commodity and a currency. Definitely an alternative investment and like any other investment if you don't have the money, stay the fuck away.

    I'd be seriously interested to know how many people bought gold in 1980 as a long term investment and still hold it today. Outside of coin collectors of course.
     
  7. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    This is why it's a fools investment.

    "I know in the long term you're guaranteed lose money but you should still buy it now and hope you're lucky to make a short term profit. ."
     
  8. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    I'm more of a trader than an investor so my advice on longs should be thrown in the garbage tbh... with that said I would agree that there are so many better avenues out there for longs than gold (and a lot of metals)

    However, as a trader look at all that juicy volatility:

    [​IMG]
     
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  9. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    Oil down 20% in 5 wks

    Tick tock
     
  10. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    Oil getting bent over, manufacturing data is terrible, GDP growth Q2 was a joke vs even the watered down projections

    but hey the markets are up.... weeeeeeeeee
     
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  11. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    So overbought.. interest rates need to go up so stocks can equalize. No yields anywhere so hey lets buy only stocks wooo
     
  12. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    I'm convinced yellen has a long position
     
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  13. Gallant Knight

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    houston houses getting cheap tho
     
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  14. Doc Louis

    Doc Louis Well-Known Member
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    Should mostly go up since people put retirement funds into them in some form anyway, no?
     
  15. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    The US stock market is currently the most expensive in the world. The disconnect between the market prices when you look at the underlying earnings and economic data will come to a head at some point.

    The central banks can only artificially inflate assets for so long before investors take their ball and go home
     
    #6865 JohnnyChimpo, Aug 1, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2016
  16. The Banks

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    What if you bought gold in 2000? What would your inflation adjusted return be?
     
  17. Gallant Knight

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    shhhh he's on a roll.
     
  18. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    The problem with pensions (govt and the like without 401ks) is that the days of high yields and low risk bonds is over. The have to spread out liabilty and ability to pay out to the retirees. So immediately a lot of their fund is in cash or 1% bonds or t notes. Because they are so low and most have a target of 7-8% they have to get into risky emerging markets and shit to make it up. And us the taxpayers gurantee it. Such a fucking racket. If you went to a bank and they said we gurantee you 7-8% every year forever youd be all man youre fucking going to jail. Not so with govt retirement plans

    Baby boomers fucking us over once again
     
  19. Frank Martin

    Frank Martin tough love makes better posters
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    As with anything there will always be the fortunate who timed the market well.
     
  20. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    Oil sitting right at $40
     
  21. heelfan

    heelfan Well-Known Member
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    And it looks like it's going to stay there. Glad I got out of everyone's favorite stock (ORIG) in the $2.30s
     
  22. RavenNole

    RavenNole Well-Known Member
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    A lot of big wealth is going private because there is still money to be made in business if you don't have to have a good chunk of your business decided by broad market conditions because ETFs and other funds that trade solely on that own large chunks of shit.

    So many private companies will continue to make really good money even if the market takes a whack
     
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  23. Duck2013

    Duck2013 Hello
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    Go take a look at that 3 month LIBOR
     
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  24. High Cotton

    High Cotton Where does this fall in our Christian walk?
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    oh word, do clarify please

    On another note, Freddie Mac posted record profits, they're eating Fannie Mae's lunch on multifamily originations, like 2:1.
     
  25. Gallant Knight

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    18 months ago every decent house would have multiple offers the first couple of days it went on the market. Now a lot of those houses are chillinnoj the markets for months with price decreases. It's a good time to buy.

    Economy here is like 75% based on energy. So low oil = layoffs = people selling their houses
     
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  26. * J Y *

    * J Y * TEXAS
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    It was that high in the late 80s bust. Its about 40% now which is still very high. Your point still stands, there should be some decent deals out there. It would be a quick turnaround though. Not some long term 15% a year type of scenario. A "deal" is still going to be in comparison to peak prices, which should return to a nice level in the next 2 years.
     
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  27. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    Fuck! Up 14-15 basis points. You sunvabitch.
     
  28. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    here is why:

    A major US interest rate benchmark has climbed to a fresh seven-year high, before new rules for money market funds that invest in short-term bonds come into force.

    At issue is massive reform of money market funds due to come into effect on October 14 and which will see such funds be required to float their net asset values (NAVs), adopt liquidity fees, and install redemption gates. The measures are an attempt to prevent a repeat of part of the crisis, which saw one prominent money market fund — The Reserve Primary — "break the buck" when its NAV dropped below $1 a share.

    Such a thing is never supposed to happen in the world of money market funds, which were often pitched to investors as deposit-like places to safely store cash while generating returns. Prime money market funds invest in short-term floating-rate debt and commercial paper sold by companies, as well as some U.S. government securities.

    As of last week, when three-month dollar Libor hit a post-crisis high of 72 basis points — the October 14 deadline was precisely 90 days away — a timeframe that comes with added import in money market world. As the deadline loomed, banks were forced to sweeten their rates on offer in order to borrow.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-25/this-is-why-libor-s-moving-higher

    http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinve...-rising-when-most-interest-rates-are-falling/
     
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  29. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Jokes aside keep reading people who think oil will hit $85 before years end. Anyone have some serious :shocker: Linwood specials?
     
  30. Hurley 864

    Hurley 864 Buy the ticket, take the ride
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    Current market environment is shaping up to be a similar, less exaggerated version of 1987 (March-December 1987 specifically), when stocks and US treasuries had simultaneous corrections.
     
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  31. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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    go to the under 2.15 gas thread, it will not hit 85 by years end. hell it would do well to hit 60
     
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  32. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Sure that's doubling down. Not trying to be shockish just genuinely asking if anyone shares the sentiment that it's going to rise and if so is there anything you like. Was not aware of the gas thread, is it worth a read?
     
  33. je ne suis pas ici

    je ne suis pas ici Well-Known Member
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  34. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    I don't disagree with you but am curious as to what indicators you're seeing
     
  35. Hurley 864

    Hurley 864 Buy the ticket, take the ride
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    I see a market rally fueled by failed central bank policies and low rates, rather than core fundamentals and earnings growth. With over 10 trillion dollars of negative yielding debt out there, people have had no where else to put their money besides the stock market or US treasuries. The latter is beginning to phase out as foreign investors can't afford the carry trade (see article below)
    http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/art...as-been-able-to-stop-treasury-rally-until-now

    That said, markets can stay irrational longer than I can remain solvent
     
    #6885 Hurley 864, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
  36. Duck2013

    Duck2013 Hello
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    Had no fucking clue. Thank you for posting this
     
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  37. * J Y *

    * J Y * TEXAS
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    I agree with what you're saying except for the bolded part. Fundamentals and earnings show just what we are seeing, slow growth. But still growth. We are in an uncomfortable position and we are going to have to raise rates at some point, but as of today we aren't in a pre-recession environment in my vagina.
     
  38. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    The earnings season has been a joke for the past few sessions as they keep watering down the expectations/estimates so that these underperforming companies can "beat their projections" (the apple earnings Q2 being a great example of this)

    This doesn't directly relate to your point but this is a pretty interesting article showing how they keep continually pushing the magical earnings per share "turnaround" in the S&P further and further into the future. This market is propped up on toothpicks.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3994382-s-and-p-500-eps-drops-2-past-month-index-new-high
     
    #6888 JohnnyChimpo, Aug 2, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2016
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  39. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    I used to feel that gold was worthless and would never own it. My main man Warren Buffet hates gold. However, the 2008-2009 financial crisis totally changed my mind.

    We were on the verge on financial collapse and all of a sudden Gold made perfect sense to me. I bought a few gold bars and keep them in a safe for a rainy day.

    I see a place for gold in a portfolio, maybe 5%. I can also understand arguments against it. But its one of those things if you wait until you need it, it is too late.
     
    #6889 tmbrules, Aug 3, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2016
  40. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Metals are great to trade, along with other commodities, becaues there is true demand. Farmers want to hedge their crops, metal producers want to hedge their prices etc.

    I agree they are not great investments but I love trading them.
     
  41. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    It might rise, but it ain't getting to $85 by the end of the year without a major terrorist attack on oil infrastructure.

    Ive always thought oil would settle in the $60 range as thats approximately what it costs to produce a barrel from shale oil.(atleast a couple years ago when the slide in oil prices started.)
     
  42. Hurley 864

    Hurley 864 Buy the ticket, take the ride
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    Agreed. Gold's neutral and often negative correlation to US stocks outweigh its historically low Sharpe ratio. Same can be said for TIPS.
     
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  43. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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    Somebody explain to me why anyone would be long on Tesla?

    I know Musk is a genius or whatever, but good god that stock is so overpriced

    Q2 earnings were just an abomination (almost $300 million loss)
     
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  44. JohnnyChimpo

    JohnnyChimpo This man, Lenny Pepperidge, AKA Lenny the Pep...
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  45. pockets

    pockets Lesser-Known Member
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    Tesla has been overvalued for a long time; a simple intrinsic value calculation will show that. Of course, even if you dont believe in efficient markets, it doesnt mean it is going to come down. I obviously dont touch things like Tesla while building a long term portfolio, but I'd advise the person just messing around to probably avoid it as well.

    Love the car and Elon Musk though.
     
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  46. Hurley 864

    Hurley 864 Buy the ticket, take the ride
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  47. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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  48. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Anyone with a brain would not at this point. I think the prevailing sentiment here is your grandpa could stick his money there and get more than the guy who kept it under his bed.
     
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  49. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Also, what happens when investors stop buying government debt? or better yet try to sell their holdings.
     
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  50. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    You're using logic but yeah it's fucking terrifying. Setting that aside how do we make money on it?