Sigh. Currently, markets pricing in a roughly 21% likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut in June, down from a 56% chance the previous day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “These numbers support the Fed keeping rates higher for longer, as Fed Chair Powell recently said he wanted to have more confidence that inflation was trending toward their long-term goal of 2%,” said Rajeev Sharma, managing director of fixed income at Key Wealth. “Today’s numbers did not provide that comfort.”
I will never understand how keeping rates high will reduce inflation when a large part of the stubborn inflation is shelter...which will be helped by lower interest rates. Here is one slightly contrarian take, mostly RE the difference in CPI and PCE.
Above my pay grade, I just know when I read "inflation numbers not great" I immediately look at the 10 year and know it'll be up and therefore mortgage rates will be up today too.
The vibes are less than great at the moment but the fed (says they) will only look at the PCE number which should be cooler (and puts less weight on shelter), which theoretically doesn't doom a June cut. The problem is that they're people like everyone else and when the NYT front page says inflation is too hot, that gets baked into the decision making even if the specific measure isn't part of the criteria.
Yeah this isn’t good. You can’t have Biden out touting rate cuts when they’re being completely priced out until next year. We’re going the wrong way at the worst time.
Yea feels like mortgage rates are a political talking point like gas prices commonly are. Could just bc of how it affects me personally.
I'd bet that SCOTUS is different but even if not, I wouldn't be shocked if the Biden folks couldn't find someone that's palatable to Murkowski or Collins. Might not be who we on this board would want but those folks are out there.
2016 is why they need to do it now. Dems are probably losing the Senate this cycle and likely won't get it back for a long time even if they retain the presidency. The precedent is already set that a Republican Senate won't confirm a Dem nominated SCOTUS justice so this is (probably) the last chance to do something about it for a long time.
You’d probably need both, since Sinema would probably be dumb too. I think you’ve got better odds of Sotomayor surviving 4 years than getting Murkowski and Collins to vote for an acceptable judicial nominee in the next 6 months.
As far as I know, Sinema has been pretty good on judges but you're right that it would be tricky (and challenging from a nomination perspective in terms of picking the replacement of the first Latina justice) but the Dems at least have the agency and the ability to at least try rather than just crossing their fingers. Regardless, Sotomayor doesn't need to survive 4 years, she probably has to survive 8-12 years to even have a chance of replacing her. Things can change but rural/urban realignment is going to be a massive problem in the Senate for democrats for the foreseeable future. Frankly, I'd ask Kagan to resign too and stick some 25 years old in there but that's just me. This shit is macabre but IMO it's the type of thing that democrats need to do to see out some years in the wilderness in the Senate.
I think there is functionally zero chance that any Senator who caucuses with the Republicans would vote for a Democrat nominated Supreme Court nominee in May (at the absolute earliest) of an election year. I think it’s silly to suggest otherwise.
Honestly this is exactly what i'd be running damn near non-stop until election day. Biden's team is going to have to get really nasty just like the GOP in ad attacks this year.
If it works for campaigning that’s great but I think it’s interesting to only go down the health care needs of abortion path which could stigmatize the elective procedure even further. I just don’t want dems to fall into some compromise trap where abortions for healthcare/viability are included but they give up elective ones. it should all be accepted and legal
the Dem party may have focused group test this but I also get annoyed how Biden and Jeffries use ‘extreme maga republicans’ all the time . Just seems forced. Say Republicans, run ads and send fliers on the math to make Roe law again
Ya this one seems pretty transparent. They want suburbanites to constantly see the difference between them and their party and not feel guilty about voting Dem.
This is 100% the last step. Breaking down the CPI (from a video I saw), it showed the following differences in these important categories: Food +2.2% Energy +2.1% New vehicles -.1% Used Vehicles -2.2% Housing +5.7% Lowering rates will lower housing costs overall. Lower housing costs and CPI looks much better. Might not get to 2%, but the average for the last 100 years in the US has been closer to 3% and we are not too far off from that as it is.
There's like 8 actual "moderate republicans" and "R leaning independents" -- the rest are voting for Trump. If they're counting on swaying moderate republicans to win this election they're going to lose the presidential by 5% and half of their Congressional seats.
Split ticket voters won Biden the election. I'll never understand the there's no swing voters narrative, persuasion wins
18-29 year old voted for Hillary and Biden in the same percentage, 58 percent. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
Biden won the election bc i actually cast a ballot in 2020 instead of 2016 I was gonna vote for Biden again in 2024, but then I was called an illib by a bunch of turbovirgins on The-TMB-Mainboard.com and now i have to vote for Trump.
And yet here's analysis showing the increase in turnout was much higher https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/election-week-2020#youth-voter-turnout-increased-in-2020
the Baltimore Harbor disaster coupled with what's about to happen with the price of milk and beef once every cow has to be culled (because the geniuses at the dairy and cattle industry insist on feeding cows pureed chicken waste) are not going to help