It’s been slow, it was expected to be slow. So far they have recaptured 14 cities and 250 sq km of land. It should also be noted that the successful Kherson counteroffensive last fall lasted another 4 weeks so there’s still a bit of time. The ground gained has threatened some of Russias supply lines that are now within artillery range. If people thought this counter offensive either going to recapture all the land russia annexed when this invasion started or even cut off crimea then that was just woefully optimistic.
I think people expected more than the land area of Milwaukee would be captured in 6 months of heavy fighting. It's mostly an attrition war now until one side or the other can find a way to break the stalemate.
As others have tried to stay out of the Middle East thread I thought this was relevant to share here. Hopefully if things pop off, this thing is over quickly for the sake of the Palestinians in potentially harms way.
I think the more interesting question Here is why someone who has based their posting reputation on understanding and appreciating nuance is so interested in applying a simplistic negative label to such a complex situation.
The last two days have been extremely consistent training at the base south of us. Last night the whole mountain was on fire with flares, missiles, and artillery raining down. The busiest I’ve ever seen it.
not a navy guy, but I feel like this is necessary? There will be 2x CSG and an amphibious assault ship in the area. I’m sure they’ll have continuous air sorties so you have to have a higher command to coordinate all those movements.
oh, cute, you're back in this thread. but you never responded to my post in the middle east thread. why do you support hamas in its fight for palestinian liberation but not ukraine?
I have a hard time believing any of the entities in Israel would allow this. With the war cabinet formed and including both Bibi and his opposition, they're prepping. They're starting their own war and it could easily be against more than just Palestine. I just don't think they're gonna give their weapons away, they plan on using them imo.
Will be interesting to see how ATACMS continues to impact things. I honestly didn't think they would have much, if any, impact on the battlefield. I guess that remains to be seen but this first big hit from them was a big success. Is that mainly due to it being a surprise?
I thought this was obvious but let’s spell it out. It’s because he’s not a serious person and his base principles are simply “America bad always.” If you apply that filter to him everything lines up perfectly.
Back on the israel front I am pretty surprised the IDF has not moved into Gaza yet. Have to think we're holding them back? and random IDF note- I was curious why all these IDF dudes are walking around with these crazy bags on their helmets. turns out if is called a mitznefet and is a camo thing the idf uses to break up the head silhouette https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitznefet_(Israeli_military)
Good read on the ATACMS that ukraine used on the air field https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/destruction-from-ukraines-first-atacms-strike-now-apparent
right. I think they are giving people time to flee at the US request in exchange for the US committing to aid militarily if Hezbollah moved in from the north
Wooooof. Large Russian assault gets wiped. Like 10+ armored vehicles and like 50-100 infantry. 3:10 has a direct cluster hit on masses infantry in the open. no gore- long distance drone film. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/2UmNBjZ7Nn
damn, so much hope for no reward... What do we know about who would take over if he kicked the bucket suddenly?
Center for Strategic and International Studies says during the peak of Ukraine's summer offensive they averaged an advance of 90 yards per day, same as Allied forces during the Battle of the Somme in 1916
Yikes I would guess with how mobile modern warfare is, that’s an incredibly slower pace than back then.
I've spent so much time following this war that it's rotting my brain but here's my two cents on things at the moment. With the previous two offensives that retook large chunks of land in the north and on the western side of the Dnieper river, Ukraine faced substantially less resistance than they do now. They would just hop in vehicles and storm village after village. Then the Russians mobilized hundreds of thousands of men and built fortifications/minefields all along the front. Simultaneously, western powers slow played (to prolong the war and further bleed out the Russian military) giving the Ukrainians needed equipment and the opportunity in the south was lost. Fast forward to this year and Western countries constantly pressure Ukraine to conduct a counteroffensive for political reasons. Billions of dollars in aid demands action, right? The Ukrainians know the obstacles in the way and a spring offensive becomes a summer offensive which turns into a fall offensive. Obviously they had to eventually try in order to please the west. They never had any intention of going all in because it would be catastrophic. The first few weeks of the offensive showed that. NATO tactics with no air support attacking fortified positions doesn't work. Why blunder all of your offensive capabilities by bashing your face into minefields and trench networks? In the past couple of weeks we've seen the type of attritional war that Ukraine needs to fight to have any chance. Chipping away at areas where it makes sense with small attacking groups with no more than a few vehicles. Everything should be casualty adverse. The Russians have proven themselves to be competent at defense. Let them go on the offensive where they are completely incompetent. Just around Avdiivka in the last week or so, the Russians have stupidly tried to encircle the city and lost thousands of troops and something like 200 visually confirmed vehicles. If they are willing to make mistakes like that, sit back in defense and let them. I really hope that we see some kind of negotiated peace sometime soon but that seems impossible. Putin can't back down. The Ukrainians rightfully want what was taken from them. Any premature peace will likely result in the Russians regrouping and then having another go at it. We're looking at a long attritional war that lasts several more years until both sides exhaust themselves. The lines won't move very much. Both countries will be husks of their former selves and likely never recover. Truly depressing stuff. Thanks Vladimir.
I agree it’s going to be a long drawn out conflict, but I have to be optimistic that with additional equipment and training, Ukraine will continue to make progress, slowly. They are scheduled to get the F16s soon and they continue to have troops trained by UK and other NATO armies. I have to assume the Russian forces will continue to use up their equipment and they can only get so much from N Korea, China, and Iran. Iran is going to get a bit stretched as they continue to try and arm their proxy army’s to bother the US troops in the ME. Who knows but I don’t see this ending anytime soon.
1) We've still not seen equipment shortages from Russia or artillery shortages 2) Russia has somewhere between 500,000 and 800,000 troops in Ukraine This war is not ending anytime soon
Long cliff notes Twitter thread on the 2023 DoD update on china’s military. Good, interesting, and concerning read. part 1 Part 2