I think the national places are getting a little overhyped. Most of the weather from the local places is saying cat 3 , could maybe get to cat 4. No one is reporting cat 5.
Everywhere on the LA coast between Lake Charles and NOLA gonna get wrecked pretty hard though. I guess Lake Charles could be a little West of it and not get it too bad. They need to be spared after last year.
This guys a good follow if you're a weather nerd. Looks like he started working for National Hurricane Center last year
Reading about the hospitals in New Orleans and knowing that no surrounding southern cities can take patients is making this thing scarier.
Staying In New Orleans but heading out once storm clears. Grand Isle might not exist after this. Maybe once Morgan City disappears we can finally reroute the River like it wants to do and actually gain land instead of lose it every day.
She is a clown. It has been basically zeroed in on the city since Tuesday. The thought of rapid intensification first started to come out on Wednesday morning model runs. I get that model runs are likely not enough to make the decision. But the very first NHC technical discussion at 10am local time on Thursday has the following passage which should have triggered actions.. " Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend."
Core looks to be back out over water after the brief trip across Cuba. Very little impact from the interaction with land. It is starting to take on that "look".
11pm eastern update is out. Not much change to it. Only thing of note from the technical discussion is the following. " In fact, it seems likely that Ida will pass over a warm eddy over the central Gulf of Mexico, where the ocean heat content is very high. All of the models show significant strengthening, but there is a fair amount of spread on how strong the hurricane will get. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance, and shows Ida becoming an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane prior to reaching the coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction, drier air, and an increase in shear."
There was a blow up of storms near the core when it was over Cuba. The topography of that end of Cuba especially with a south to north tracking storm can cause an increase of storm activity due to upsloping with the mountains that run west to east. It will be interesting to see how much intensification happens during the overnight hours. There are signs starting to show that the process has started.
It's going the same path as Gustav. I can tell you that Baton Rouge was viewed as a safe haven during hurricane season. That storm fucked up the city.
I’m an insurance agent with my office down the interstate close to the Mississippi Louisiana border. It’s going to be a shit show the next week. Dreading it.
If you want to watch rapid intensification in real time; it is time to start watching the storm. The eye is starting to clear out on all levels. The only thing that could stop the storm from reach peak potential is dry air wrapping in. Last night there was some dry air that got pulled in and slowed development in the overnight hours.
Have fun saying, “it’s in the box, I can’t write you a policy anymore” 1000 times an hour and then getting screamed at. Absolute worst part of the job.
I stopped writing property yesterday morning. Posted signs on my office that were closed Monday and routed the phones to my cell. My company has me at the office temporarily to clean up a mess but I live an hour north of it.
Numerous big blow up of storms near the center in the last couple of scans of the storm. It is trying to get wrapped up tighter on the visible images. Right now there are 2 recon flights in the storm going on.
Thank god for whole home generators. I was out of power for over two weeks during Katrina. Actually my parents who I went to stay with (100 miles north of me) were out of power for two weeks, my actual house at the time was much much longer and I was about 100 miles or so inland. If you’ve never had the pleasure of mid/south Mississippi in August it’s essentially the most miserable heat you can imagine. 100 degrees with 80-90 percent humidity is not uncommon. Average is somewhere in the 90s with 80ish percent humidity.
You don't realize how much being without power sucks ass until you don't have it for several days. Michael killed our power for 4+ days and we had a 5-7 year old to try to entertain. It's also not exactly cool in October in south Georgia. God it was the worst
My understanding is if you know the direction of the wind it's not really as dangerous as you would think to fly into a hurricane