Execs are under contract. A pay cut would have to be by mutual agreement. It would need to come out of their discretionary bonuses
Pretty hard to say this unless you've actually seen the contracts. A lot of senior executive contracts permit across the board pay cuts for similarly situated executives.
I suppose that’s true. I see a lot of executive contracts and have never seen that provision. Then again, I don’t represent many Fortune 500 companies
Even without that provision, it could potentially create a "good reason" resignation (typically triggering severance), but I'd have to imagine that a lot of senior executives are willing to swallow that pill instead of being the guy/girl who wouldn't take a 10-25% cut in the middle of this clusterfuck.
Agreed. And I'll go out on a limb to say that most executives would agree. Bottom line, I don't think the contracts are getting in the way of any pay cuts. A savvy executive would probably agree to the drop in exchange for something else--higher bonus potential, reduction in non-compete terms, higher severance, etc.
What’s your point? They’re still dickheads if they’re going around cutting everyone else’s pay and/or laying people off while not proactively addressing their own bloated compensation packages.
They are not leading by example, that is for sure. Leaders are generally birthed out of difficult/uncertain times, not easy ones.
Surprised CCL didnt drop more today with the news that they are cancelling all of their Gulf of Alaska Cruises for 2020
I don't know why there's such optimism on a 20MMbbl/day cut. Isn't that what the DAILY surplus was before all the lockdowns?
I heard that a lot of the reason for the market growth during this ridiculous unemployment is due to those unemployed are primarily small business owners and self employed individuals- not the big businesses that drive the markets. In addition to that, those big businesses are seeing all of the money being injected into the economy. I never pretend to understand what's going on, but I thought that made a little bit of sense.
I think the market is factoring in a lot of these unemployed people getting their old or similar jobs back in 3-4 months. Clearly some smaller businesses will fail but those that do not will likely re-hire when the economy starts picking back up.
Saw the opportunity and got out with a small gain on my PLNT puts this AM. Still holding out hope I can do the same with CCL in the next 24 hours.
This has to be the trade going forward buy spy spy calls Wednesday at the close lose 5m+ jobs Thursday an hour before market opens market goes up and sell the calls on Thursday
I think this is an incorrect assumption. 20 million, or 30, or 35, people don’t just get their jobs back by the end of 2020. 5 million might snap back into place quickly, but it will take years, if ever, for unemployment to get back to sub 5%. Investors know this, they are trading on the government back stopping markets, not the economic reality. Hence, the dislocation between the market and the clear reality that we are already in a recession and could be in a depression soon. No one wants to fight the Fed right now. if the Fed can’t keep up, the market will go through the floor trying to correct itself.
bought some SPY puts for 4/22 for $220 at 0.06 a piece. Low probability bet Trump will fuck up this announcement
This is exactly how I feel along with the fact that I think we are going to be terrible at track and trace effectively hobbling our restart. Ended up converting some Voo shares to GLD right now.
Eh, as with everything there is grey and nuance. There will be some of that but I don't think quite at the level that puts a huge number of people out of work. Now, if you're talking long term, will more companies try to find ways to automate and be motivated to implement those automation projects to avoid business disruption in the future? Sure. But short term, I don't think most can do that in 3-6 months.
What makes you think that only 5 million (or so) will get there jobs back as things get back to normal? Let's say we come up with some pretty good treatments in the Fall and then a vaccine in Q1 of 2021. You think we'll just have about a 1/4 of the economic activity back from mid-February?
A business is not going to just hire back 100% of their employees, if they are even still in existence. They will wait for revenue confirmation before doing so, which will be severely hampered by the decrease in purchasing power because so many are unemployed. I posted some data (it takes some leaps) a few pages back that posits up to 2/3 of the unemployed could be permanent.
5/1, 5/15 are going to be very interesting when we are sitting at 20-25% unemployment numbers. Whatever the protest was in michigan is going to be drastically amplified.
Its a vicious cycle that works upon itself, uncertainty/job loss will keep people from making purchases and reduced revenues leads to slow or no hiring, people default on debts, banks standards for loans become tighter (see JPM recently), it all works to restrict economic growth. 20 million unemployed (which is historically massive and growing) wont just snap back into place, especially when the issue itself (the virus) still hasn't been remedied. Using your timeline of Fall for even just effective treatments: if we reopened in May we would have 4 months till fall of managing case loads in the US. It took roughly 2 months for the virus to seed itself and blow up, now imagine what two months would bring when the starting point is half a million + confirmed cases in the US. Given the current policies I don't see how we aren't in periods of rolling lockdowns for the next 6 months and with that threat lingering I don't see businesses/people making investments in themselves even if it never materializes. Side note I feel like Chamath is on his way to running for president in 4 years.
Bought some snap puts for $7 strike. I wanted the $5 because they are .02 each but Schwab says they don't exist even though it lists them as available.
the logic behind what a lot of western euro countries who had similar failures but decided to build everything they spent in to keeping people employed makes the most sense to me in regards to how fast the economy will recover but we'll see
True but a huge number of the 20MM is in restaurant/retail so theoretically by reopening these two things you would expect a huge % of the unemployed population to immediately rejoin the workforce. I would expect large expenditures and travel/sports/concerts to be off the table for many months, that is a lot of discretionary spend that can be redirected into restaurants/retail growing the total employed. Now if we can't contain the spread of the virus than everything is off the table and the govt better figure out how to start paying people monthly to stay home.
I think this will be a major inflection point in retail. Can see a lot of major players folding shop as a result of this. Knock on effects in Corporate Real Estate as a result.
i think the other side of the restaurant/retail industry part is that you're probably looking at steep occupancy restrictions for a sizable portion of time, they won't need to fully staff up for a long time. not to mention the % of people who just don't go out for a long time at anything close to similar rates as they did pre-corona.
It will be vert interesting to see where people spend their money (or will they just stop spending) when you remove things like travel/sports/entertainment
With respect to sports my Astros season tickets are $30k and they’ve said Jack shit about any plans to refund or how they’re going to reimburse that money
email i got this morning from the season tickets person assigned to my account: Good Morning! I hope all is well and you and the family are finding new hobbies and enjoying the extra time together. As for me, I have continued reading, enjoying the beautiful weather with some runs, and cooking quite a bit for my family. If you did not know this about me, I love cooking and baking, so this time at home has given me the opportunity to try a few new things. If you have any recipes you love to make, I’d love to swap recipes with you. New Updates: At this moment, I do not have any new updates from MLB regarding the 2020 season. I am sure you have heard many rumors of the different possibilities of how season could progress. However, I do want to make it known that everything is speculative as of right now. The whole country is waiting for things to be safe again and MLB has the health and safety of fans, players, and employees in mind. As soon as the Astros receive an update from MLB with information for the 2020 season and what this means for you and your season tickets, I will be sure to send it your way and provide as much detail as possible. I want to thank you for your patience and understanding during this time. I realize this is a slow process and we all want answers. I dearly miss baseball and cannot wait for it to be back, as I am sure you miss it as well. In the Community: Many of our Astros players have stepped up in the community to help with COVID 19 efforts. Below are a few examples of how players are helping and how you can make an impact as well: Justin Verlander and Kate Upton are donating weekly pay checks to a different COVID-19 relief organization with each check Alex Bregman launched project FEEDHOU to fundraise for the Houston Food Bank. Mattress Mack and a few other players have also joined in on the effort. You can follow his fundraising campaign through his social media account on Instagram as well Jim Crane, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado, and the Astros Foundation has partnered with Crane Worldwide Logistics to transport important disaster relief and medical supplies to Puerto Rico to assist with the COVID-19 crisis. This Day in Astros History: 1998 – Astros steal six bases against the Reds. Pitcher Mike Hampton accounts for one of the steals and gets his third win of the season 2002 – Lance Berkman hits three home runs in the 8-3 win over Cincinnati. Richard Hidalgo and Bagwell also tee off on the losing pitcher Jose Acevedo. Berkman gets two chances to tie the NL record of four homers in a game, but comes up short. Jackie Robinson Day: I think it also important to mention that yesterday was Jackie Robinson Day. On April 15, 1947, Robinson broke the color barrier in MLB by making his debut. If you are interested in diving deeper on the history of Jackie Robinson, or missed any stories yesterday, I suggest taking a look at MLB.com where they more information on his history and career. Final Note: As I have mentioned before, we are all in this together. I hope you and your loved ones are doing well and staying busy at home. As I continue to get updates from MLB, I will be communicating them with you. Again, I appreciate all your patience and understanding during this time. As always, if you have any questions please feel free to reach out. Take care and go Stros!
I have been on the Cubs season ticket waiting list for 13 years and finally got it this year (lucky me). They sent ticket holders an email with this "We are suspending payments and delaying the final payment deadline for the time being for 2020 Chicago Cubs season tickets. The season ticket seat(s) you selected and submitted a first payment for will remain in your account. No immediate action is required on your part. As a reminder, your first payment is nonrefundable. " That was March 16th, don't think that last sentence is going to sit too well if they cancel the season.