Here's my initial thoughts ... Dortmund will be the favorite regardless of tonight's lines. AP at 18 is close to 20 or 1, but it's not ideal and going to have to use a lot of the horse early because Carpe Diem is forced to use a lot of that horse coming from the 2 hole. Firing Line is perfect, really happy with that. Would much rather have Mubtahiij at 1 and Ochox3 at 6, but that's the way it goes. Have to look at International Star now at 12 and Keen Ice at 14 (credit to mt on that one). A lot of the questionable horses got good draws which is ok, really glad Upstart/far Right are way outside as you can throw them out. Two horses make me nervous in this draw, Mubtahiij and Kebeir at 7. He won't win, but he's shown enough to hit the board and has run at Churchill twice I think.
I love the draws for both Firing Line and Frosted. Dortmund drew well too. As a Carpe Diem fan, 2 is definitely not an ideal draw for him, but I don't think it's a death sentence, because he isn't going to be too forwardly placed. I think that Materiality drew even worse with the 3 post, because he does need to be towards the front. He'll have to be hustled to get ahead of all the horses moving towards the rail. I'll have something on the Oaks later tonight. Stellar Wind looks tough to beat for me, though. I thought she was very impressive this spring.
Here's what we are doing in a $1700 group bet ($100 a person) $2 superfecta box Dortmund/Firing Line/American Pharoah/Frosted/Carpe Diem/Keen Ice/Materiality ($1680 bet)
I would suggest taking the top 3 above, wheel or doing a key with some of the other horses. On a personal pick, do a big exacta with Firing Line/Dortmund ... I myself am boxing $100 on that finish.
The 2 post really isn't as bad as it is made out to be. This is how the 2 post has fared the past 10 Derbies: 2005: Andromeda's Hero (57-1), finished 8th 2006: Steppenwolfer (16-1), finished 3rd 2007: Curlin (5-1), finished 3rd 2008: Tale of Ekati (37-1), finished 4th 2009: Musket Man (19-1), finished 3rd 2010: Ice Box (12-1), finished 2nd 2011: Brilliant Speed (27-1), finished 7th 2012: Optimizer (42-1), finished 11th 2013: Oxbow (26-1), finished 6th 2014: Harry's Holiday (44-1), finished 16th So while there aren't any wins, a horse from the 2 post has hit the super 5 out of the 10 years, and only two horses didn't finish in the top half of the field- both over 40-1 (even Optimizer outran his odds in finishing 11th). The key with those finishing in the top 4? All of those horses were midpack or closers (granted, Oxbow ran huge finishing 6th running near the front). I expect Carpe Diem to be midpack.
One more thing I'd like to point out- this is Dale Romans' history at the Derby: 2010: Paddy O'Prado (12-1), 7th choice, finished 3rd 2011: Shackleford (23-1), 12th choice, finished 4th 2012: Dullahan (12-1), 6th choice, finished 3rd 2014: Medal Count (26-1), 12th choice, finished a troubled 8th (I'm convinced he finishes at least the top four if he doesn't get interfered with in the stretch) His horses always show up on Derby Day, so definitely be aware of Keen Ice. I can't see him winning, but in the exotics, he's dangerous.
Anyways, some stakes picks for Kentucky Oaks day: Race 6: G3 Edgewood Stakes 1. Sunset Glow (3) 8-5 2. Quality Rocks (1) 3-1 3. Lady Zuzu (5) 15-1 Race 7: G1 La Troienne Stakes 1. America (4) 10-1 2. Sheer Drama (5) 3-1 3. Gold Medal Dancer (7) 9-2 Race 8: G2 Alysheba Stakes 1. Honor Code (7) 8-5 2. Protonico (2) 7-5 3. Cougar Ridge (10) 50-1 Race 9: G3 Turf Sprint Stakes 1. Zee Bros (7) 12-1 2. Undrafted (12) 7-2 3. Power Alert (10) 5-1 Race 10: G3 Eight Belles Stakes 1. Ekati’s Phaeton (3) 6-1 2. Taylor S (12) 4-1 3. Callback (1) 3-1 Race 11: Kentucky Oaks If Stellar Wind (12) runs the same race that she did last time out, then every other horse, with the possible exception of I’m a Chatterbox (8), will have to take a big step forward. And in the case of I’m a Chatterbox, I have a tough time seeing a horse sired by Munnings getting better as the distances get longer, while Stellar Wind should relish the extra ground. The only problem I have with Stellar Wind is that John Sadler, her trainer, does not have a good history in shipping horses out of California. I’m willing to look past that, though, since the horse herself has shown that shipping doesn’t bother her when she was transferred in to Sadler’s barn. The other main contender is Condo Commando (5). Truthfully, I’ve never been a fan of hers, as she gets perfect setup after perfect setup. The thing is, she might get another one, as there isn’t a lot of speed, so she might be loose on the lead. She’s the only horse that has won going 1 1/8 miles, and she has done so twice. A couple long shots that I think are interesting: Forever Unbridled (1) and Shook Up (2). 1. Stellar Wind (12) 7-2 2. Forever Unbridled (1) 15-1 3. Condo Commando (5) 4-1
Looked through the thread but didn't see anything. Where is the best place to get $$ down on the derby online?
Express bet. Drop $100 on the Oaks on Friday. Get $125 free on Saturday. I have a referral code so if you do sign up, shoot me a pm. Will send that over, gets me $50 for free. Twinspires is bet $500 to get $100 I think.
Cza Have you had any hangups getting your cash from Xpressbet. I have had a small account with them for years, but never cashed out. Secondly, how do I find out if TN outlaws payments?
Nah, they have the 7 day rule so if you put in cash on Friday for the Oaks, can't withdraw until the following Friday, but been using them for over 5 years with no issues and they have handled payouts of up to $4300 with no pre-taxing. Quickest way is probably to call expressbet and ask.
Make us some money this wknd, pls. mtsucalico85 ...chime in as well. I got $100. Make my bets for me...
First off, take that $100 and bet on Stellar Wind to show in the Oaks. Probably would pay double, but if you sign up with a new express bet account, they will add $125 Saturday morning meaning your $100 just turned into $325 as a high and $125 as a low for the Derby with no risk. Even if Stellar Wind misses the board, they still put $125 in the next day. If you already have an expressbet, start one in your wifes or parents name. It's free money.
and if you want help a brother out if you do sign up for an expressbet. XBF02413 in the XB friends box under promo.
Saturday undercard stakes: Race 5: G3 Pat Day Mile 1. Competitive Edge (6) 6-5 (It wouldn't stun me if this horse ended up being the best horse in the crop of three year olds, even though he will be best at shorter distances) 2. Gimme Da Lute (2) 7-2 3. Lord Nelson (5) 3-1 Race 6: G2 American Turf 1. Royal Son (4) 5-1 2. Luck of the Kitten (1) 7-2 3. Firespike (9) 15-1 Race 7: G1 Humana Distaff 1. Sweet Reason (1) 5-1 2. Sweet Whiskey (7) 6-1 3. Judy The Beauty (8) 6-5 Race 8: G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile 1. Lady Lara (4) 7-2 2. Coffee Clique (5) 3-1 3. Tepin (3) 15-1 Race 9: G2 Churchill Downs 1. C. Zee (1) 15-1 2. Bayern (2) 1-1 (Obviously, the most likely winner, but given the lengthy layoff and what should be a lively pace scenario, I think he could be vulnerable) 3. Private Zone (4) 2-1 Race 10: G1 Woodford Reserve 1. Stephanie’s Kitten (8) 9-2 2. Umgiyo (3) 30-1 3. Grand Arch (12) 8-1
Breaking down the Kentucky Derby, horse by horse: Spoiler 1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1): He’s not fast enough, has distance limitations, the wrong running style, and is stuck on the rail. Not using. 2. Carpe Diem (8-1): I get that he needs to get faster from a speed figure standpoint, but I also don’t think we’ve seen anything near his best. Todd Pletcher gets grief for his Derby failure, but his one Derby winner (Super Saver) followed a similar pattern to Carpe Diem. Carpe Diem should also relish the extra distance. Win contender. 3. Materiality (12-1): One of the toughest calls for me- he’s the fastest horse from a Beyer standpoint, running a 110 Beyer while winning the Florida Derby. And he does have two wins at 1 1/8 miles, plus a strong pedigree. But it bugs me that he’s only run at Gulfstream, a quirky track that is known to produce Pletcher freaks but don’t quite replicate it outside of that track. Will use defensively in exotics, but ultimately trying to beat. 4. Tencendur (30-1): He did improve last time out in the Wood, but he had a perfect trip, and was still comfortably beaten by Frosted- a horse who did not have a perfect trip. Not using. 5. Danzig Moon (30-1): He’s getting a lot of hype as one of the most impressive horses training at Churchill. The problem is, he’s always looked great in training, and it hasn’t translated to the track. Not using. 6. Mubtaahij (20-1): Another tough call for me. He looked impressive in the UAE Derby, but I don’t know what he beat, and he sat behind a much slower pace than what he will see here. He has a great trainer in Mike de Kock- he has only ran six horses in the United States in his career, and all of them have finished in the top three. But it concerns me that his feed- one of de Kock’s creation- won’t be allowed in the US. It might make a minimal difference, but it can’t be a positive, and on a horse I’m on the fence about, it’s enough to tip the scales against him for me. Not using. 7. El Kabeir (30-1): He is what he is- a solid horse that is a tier below the best and that has some distance limitations. With Calvin Borel as his jockey, he’ll be overbet. Not using. 8. Dortmund (3-1): The likeliest winner in the field to me. He’s won in blowouts and in dogfights. He’s also already won at Churchill. He’s won setting the pace and by passing horses. And he’s consistently running very fast, with three straight mid-100 Beyers. The one concern I’d have with him is getting into traffic trouble around the turns- he’s such a big horse that he doesn’t run smoothly on the turns. But if he gets past that, he’ll be tough to beat. Won't get great odds on him though. Win contender. 9. Bolo (30-1): He’s a grade one caliber horse, but I think that is on turf and going a bit shorter. Think he’s in a bit too deep here. Not using. 10. Firing Line (12-1): He’s the only horse that Dortmund has had any trouble with. Firing Line has lost by a head twice to Dortmund. I think he was best in their first meeting, with Dortmund having the better trip, but would give Dortmund the edge in their more recent race. Once he got away from Dortmund, he absolutely destroyed an overmatched field in the Sunland Derby. Another positive- he has three time winning jockey Gary Stevens on his side. I think he’s dangerous. Win contender. 11. Stanford: He has been scratched. 12. International Star (20-1): He swept the Louisiana series of races, and I’ve consistently underrated him. And he should sit a decent trip. But I still tend to lean towards him being the beneficiary of getting great trips against a relatively mediocre group of horses. Not using. 13. Itsaknockout (30-1): I don’t like him in this spot; he’s not on the level of the others in the Derby. But keep him in the back of your mind if he ends up running in the Belmont Stakes- he reminds me very much of Commissioner last year. Not using. 14. Keen Ice (50-1): On paper, he’s not fast enough, but if you are looking for a bomb in the exotics, I think he is the one. He has a great distances pedigree, and the right running style to get a piece. Dale Romans horses always seem to outperform their odds in the Derby. And I think he’s had excuses in all of his races, either due to running into a slow pace or being forced to run wide while International Star has been able to cut the corner in their races. Do I think he’s one of the top 4-5 horses in the field? No, but neither was Golden Soul two years ago or Commanding Curve last year, and they each ran second. He doesn’t need to be the best horse, he just needs the right trip to get into the bottom of the exotics, and that seems very plausible to me. Exotics contender. 15. Frosted (15-1): He had minor throat surgery after his collapse in the Fountain of Youth, and he came back to win impressively in the Wood Memorial. His best race puts him in with the other top contenders, and, other than maybe Firing Line, he’ll be a better price than any of them. And he’s also a horse that can sit back a bit, and could benefit from a more contested pace. Win contender. 16. War Story (50-1): He’s just not that good, and he’s also had a history of breaking slow, which would further hurt his chances. Not using. 17. Mr. Z (50-1): He’s always game, and he shows up every time at any track you ask him to, but with the number of races he’s run, it’s tough to imagine him improving, and he would need to do so significantly to contend. Not using. 18. American Pharoah (5-2): I can’t remember the last Derby horse that has been hyped as much as he as- even from competitors. I’ve even heard some comparisons to Seattle Slew thrown around. He’s brilliant, there’s no doubt about that. But I can’t get over the fact that he’s had easy trip after easy trip, and that the female side of his pedigree is very much orientated to speed, not stamina. And as great as he’s looked, his speed figures aren’t any better than the other main contenders, and it isn’t if he’s been beating any great horses- a horse like Dortmund has been keeping much better company this year. Will use defensively in exotics, but ultimately trying to beat. 19. Upstart (15-1): He hasn’t run a bad race yet, and has multiple races that make him competitive. But I’ve always had some distance concerns with him, and given his post position and running style, I could see him having a less than ideal trip. Similar to Mubtaahij, he scares me a bit, but I will be against him. Not using. 20. Far Right (30-1): He’s another deep closer that, theoretically, could make a late run and pick up a piece. But he’s had much more favorable trips than a horse like Keen Ice this year, and I don’t think he’s been training all that well in the lead up to the Derby. Still, at his price, I could maybe throw him into the bottom of exotics. Fringe exotics contender. 21. Frammento (50-1): With the defection of Stanford, he draws in to the field. He’s another horse that will be coming from well back, but I don’t like him as much as some other closers in this group. Not using. 22 (AE). Tale of Verve (50-1): Will scratch unless someone else drops out. If he did get in, his odds should be 5000-1, not 50-1. Not using. Win Contenders: Carpe Diem (2), Dortmund (8), Firing Line (10), Frosted (15) Exotics Contenders: Materiality (3), Keen Ice (14), American Pharoah (18), Far Right (20) Kentucky Derby Selections: 1. Carpe Diem (2) 8-1 2. Dortmund (8) 3-1 3. Firing Line (10) 12-1 4. Frosted (15) 15-1
This is your card for Saturday? I assume that these are your win/place/show? Any trifecta/exacta etc plays?
With Stanford scratching and Frammento taking the 20th gate instead of 11th and everyone moving up one, do you still use their original post numbers (ex. exacta 10-15 (Firing Line and Frosted) or do you use the gate numbers at the time of the race (ex. exacta 10-14 Firing Line and Frosted)?
mt does an awesome job. A lot of times I will take his and put them in pick 4 and pick 6 stuff with his 3 in each race.
Appreciate you trying. Damn, I miss being in Lousiville today, the Oaks are like a warm up for tomorrow, but tons of fun. Everyone is loose and getting housed on the Lilly. Triple Sec, Sour, Vodka, Cran in these glasses ...
You could always box the above horses for an exacta or tri play. The way I take it is those are the horses he likes at the top if a play was to be made. Not trying to speak for mtsu or be a smartass. Friendly thread here.
I'm a huge fan of key bets which is one horse up top and then put 3 behind it in a tri. Cheap, always pays and there's a lot of money going in at Churchill today so you can set yourself up for the weekend at $6 a race if you hit one. Take mt's picks, use one of your own and give it a shot. The quickest way to bust in horse gambling trying to grind a day out with exactas and winners. Small risk, big payoff and be prepared to lose every time. Then it's all fun because you will hit eventually. I will go 50 races sometimes hitting nothing and wager $300 total and then hit a random key tri/super that pays $600. That's the way I like to bet.
The race I plan on playing the most on Saturday from those undercard races is the Woodford Reserve, trying to get Umgiyo in the trifecta. He's the other Mike de Kock horse racing at Churchill this weekend (as I mentioned with Mubtaahij, de Kock is 6 for 6 in finishing in the money in the US). He's dropping out of the Dubai Turf, so while this is a Grade 1, it's actually a small class drop for him. I'm going to key him in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with Stephanie's Kitten, Grand Arch, Seek Again, Jack Milton, and Finnegan's Wake. Bet would look like this: 3/5,7,8,9,12/5,7,8,9,12 5,7,8,9,12/3/5,7,8,9,12 5,7,8,9,12/5,7,8,9,12/3 Doing a 50 cent tri, the above bet would cost $30. If you wanted to cut out a horse from that group, Finnegan's Wake (the 5 horse) is the one I would leave out.
Just Thanks....could you spell out what these bets/numbers mean? American Pharoah your fave for the big event?
$0.50 is the bet. Every / is placing meaning 3/5,7,9/5,7,9 would mean the 3 horse needs to finish first and horses 5,7,9 can finish in any order as long as the 3 horse wins so if the race finishes 3/5/7 it wins. 7/3/5 would lose. Also, if you read above, he posted derby picks in a spoiler. He's still thinking Carpe Diem. I am split with Dortmund/ Firing Line. I think Pharoah either wins or finishes in the bottom 5.
This is the Woodford Reserve bet: 1st: 3 2nd: 5,7,8,9,12 3rd: 5,7,8,9,12 1st: 5,7,8,9,12 2nd: 3 3rd: 5,7,8,9,12 1st: 5,7,8,9,12 2nd: 5,7,8,9,12 3rd: 3 So as long as the 3 horse finishes in the top 3, then any combination of the 5, 7, 8, 9, and 12 can be in the other spots. As for American Pharoah, I'll use him in exotics, but my main group of horses will be Carpe Diem/Dortmund/Firing Line/Frosted.
Reminder, I have a horse racing at Hoosier Harness tonight in Race 14. Rock the Look, should go off at 5-1. Drew outside which is a bigger deal in Harness racing than Thoroughbred, you could probably make some money on the show or a trifecta with 1,2,4. It's her first race back since finishing 2nd in the 2 year old Indiana Sire Stakes final back in November so not going balls out in a $9k non-winner, just getting her around the track. She'll be off pace, come flying in the stretch. Hoosier is hilariously bad btw, they do shit like this ... but can't beat racing for $25k a week. The first "rapper" is our trainer.
last year we have a Louisville fan post a trifecta that hit... I can't remember his freaking handle... He's into horse racing.. any help?
Nothing standing out. I think it was the same guy who hit the absurd Oxbow/itsmyluckyday/My Lute tri in the preakness 3 years back which I also bet with him. $30 tri box ($5) ticket paid $3500 I think.
El Kabeir about to scratch which means Bowrail is without a mount. That makes me think two things ... 1. Good, Calvin always scares me on long shots and Kebeir had a weird way of hitting the board. 2. Upstart moving in another spot makes me nervous as all hell.
Andy Beyer picked Upstart on Wednesday (prior to post draw) on the Tony Kornheiser radio show.....I wonder if he would have changed his pick after Upstart drew post 19
Upstart likes to run up front, tall order from that far outside. The closer he gets though, the better chance to be on pace. I am covering my ass with him in a few different spots now. From 19, hated him. From 16, he's a threat. Probably not to win, but could hit the board.
Muddle the mint with the simple syrup, ice, muddle again, ice, whiskey ... first 5 sips taste like a shot and then the drink comes together. I am drinking ... the Lilly because it's Oaks day and that is how we do. (Vodka 2 oz/Sour 1 oz/Triple .5 oz Sec/Cranberry 3oz)
The joys of missing a $30,000 E5 because of placement. 2,8,7,12,13 isn't 7,2,8,12,13 but it is close enough to make you want to be sick. Up $125 on the day, but fuck, that was too close. Stretch was looking awesome for it.
Essentially ended up even today because of that race. Didn't go too well otherwise. It's probably a good thing that Zee Bros scratched- I feel like I always get suckered in by him.
4th, last quarter in 26 flat though which is fucking flying. 9 horse got parked and mucked everything up in the back, had to go 3 wide to start the last quarter. Fucking idiots up front burning their horses out in May to go 1:54 for $8k. Anyhow, she will dust that group once the real money is being raced for, sorry if anyone lost a couple of bucks. I'll let you know when we plan to unleash her, but she'll be 2-1 or under all summer. This was the one shot to catch her at 8-1 which is what she went off at.
Just made my simple syrup with Mint for the Mint Juleps tmrw. On another note. Lost $100 on the Oaks today.
A guy on another message board I know has hit the Exacta box two years in a row, and I posted his picks last year before the Derby. Here is what he is betting this year: Carpe Diem $20 across the board Danzig Moon $10 across the board $2 EXACTA BOX - Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Upstart $1 TRIFECTA BOX - Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Upstart $1 SUPERFECTA BOX - Carpe Diem, Danzig Moon, Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Upstart