Who does anyone like tonight? Off the bat I'd say Bears getting more than a FG is tempting. Don't buy into the "No way GB starts of 0-2 they're too good!!!1!" Also like the Over with GBs defense being a shit show. I feel like if Alex Smith can shred that D then Cutler can too. Marshall, Forte and Bush are all very solid. Also think that CB Tillman is doubtful for bears tonight so someone on the outside of Chicago D should be getting abused
I'm leaning Bears too...their running game was awful last week, and doesn't look like Jennings will play.
Packers run game will look bad most weeks except when teams overcommit to defending the pass, or have no run defense. Something about how they look, aside from not having a great back, comes across like they don't spend a lot of time practicing it compared to their passing game.
Feel like I have a decent idea about the teams after watching a lot of week 1 games. initial leans, other than Bears/Over tonight: Sunday: Baltimore/philly OVER 46 Baltimore ML San Fran -6.5 Fins +3.5 - i know they're the fins but their run D looked solid last week and oak is terrible. home dogs bark a lot skins ML monday: Broncos ML. Don't see the falcons D being able to stop them
I'm not touching tonights game. Honestly feel like it can go either way. I do like the Pats at -13 tho
just read up on "the death number" #5. When the line opens and stays around -5 in NFL, the dogs cover ~80% of the time and win straight up at a decent clip. No games fit this last year. In 2010 4 times - all 4 dogs covered, 2 won SU. Plenty of people on the site said that it has pretty much been common knowledge and -5 got that nickname many moons ago. Not a fan of trends and has no bearing on my thoughts on the game. Just an interesting
So many dogs to choose from STL +3.5 SEA +3 MIA +1 NYJ +5 CAR +1 TB +7 Think STL, CAR and Philly as a fav over BAL are the 3 to narrow it down.
For me today: Seattle +4 (best bet) Seattle ML +160 Jags +7 Indy +3 Indy ML +125 Raiders -1.5 Raider ML -125
PARLAY (5 TEAMS) [198] GIANTS -370 [212] CIN BENGALS -330 [213] HOU TEXANS -300 [220] PIT STEELERS -235 [224] SF 49ERS -310 300 / 948 Open Bets: 1Total Amount: 300 / 948 How should I hedge this? I was thinking about taking either Lions+7 for 300 and middle a jackpot or worst case break even. I also might take Lions moneyline. Can't decide if I should guarantee a $500 win or roll the dice a little(49ers are fucking good) and hope to win big.
Fuck it, Lions are gonna come to play tonight. Hitting them on the 1H +4 and opening up a few open parlays with the +7.5 for the game.
couldn't believe the price on the under was +100 at some spots with the over carrying the (-) .. so many people on the over trend I guess ..
Overs are hitting this year right now with the replacement refs. I read during Week 1 there were 29 Defensive Pass Interference. Compared to last year there were 29 in 3 weeks combined
Broncos +3.5 2nd biggest bet of the week behind Bama -20.5 Grimes out for ATL with achilles. they have him on $10mil 1 year franchise tag. Opposing QBs averaged 42% completions against him last year. Real big loss there and Peyton is probably the best in the league at exposing weaknesses on the other team's D. Falcons DC is 1-7 against Peyton lifetime. Del Rio is a solid DC. Wrong team favored IMO